The Science of Disasters

Dr. J. Kropp, Senior scientist at PIK, he studied chemistry and physics and in 1992 he took a diploma in theoretical chemistry at the University of Oldenburg. From 1993-1998 he was research fellow at PIK, from 1998-2001 project leader of a research project on costal zone management at the Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, and from 2001 research analyst and member of staff of the German Advisory Council on Global Change to the Federal Government (WBGU). His research interests are the development of methods for integrated impact assessments, in particular, with respect to vulnerability, risk assessment, and adaptation to climate change and in the context of decision making and various institutional settings. He leads several European joint projects (e.g. disaster and risk assessment) and has published numerous papers.

Hans J. Schellnhuber ist Gründer und Direktor des Potsdam-Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung und Professor für Theoretische Physik an der Universität Potsdam. Er ist Mitglied in einer Reihe deutscher und internationaler wissenschaftlicher Gremien wie des 2007 mit dem Nobelpreis ausgezeichneten Weltklimarats IPCC und Vorsitzender des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU).

I. General.- 1. Entropy, Complexity, Predictability, and Data Analysis of Time Series and Letter Sequences.- 2. Wavelet Based Multifractal Formalism: Applications to DNA Sequences, Satellite Images of the Cloud Structure, and Stock Market Data.- II. Climate Systems.- 3. Space-Time Variability of the European Climate.- 4. Is Climate Predictable?.- 5. Atmospheric Persistence Analysis: Novel Approaches and Applications.- 6. Assessment and Management of Critical Events: The Breakdown of Marine Fisheries and The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation.- III. Biodynamics.- 7. Fractal and Multifractal Approaches in Physiology.- 8. Physiological Relevance of Scaling of Heart Phenomena.- 9. Local Scaling Properties for Diagnostic Purposes.- 10. Unstable Periodic Orbits and Stochastic Synchronization in Sensory Biology.- 11. Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations.- IV. Nonlinear Economics.- 12. Investigations of Financial Markets Using Statistical Physics Methods.- 13. Market Fluctuations I: Scaling, Multiscaling, and Their Possible Origins.- 14. Market Fluctuations II: Multiplicative and Percolation Models, Size Effects, and Predictions.

From the reviews:

"This impressive collection is a result of an international conference on 'Facets of Universality in Complex Systems', which was held in June 1999 at the University of Giessen, Germany. ... What is found in and through this book are ... 14 sophisticated examples of advanced modelling of non-linear processes, systems and systemic interdependencies. ... My personal recommendation: A stimulating book ... ." (Wolf Dombrowsky, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol. 12 (4), 2006)

"The book considers the non-linear dynamics of complex systems, with examples drawn from climatology, biodynamics and economics. ... I would like to congratulate the editors and the publisher. Publishing a book covering state-of-the-art analysis in three disciplines cannot be easy. This is a beautifully presented work ... . The diagrams are of a consistently high standard with liberal use of colour, and always enhance the discussion. ... In short, this is a very good book, bursting with ideas ... ." (Tom Holt, The Holocene, Vol. 14 (2), 2004)

"This monograph grew from a 1999 Giessen workshop entitled 'Facets of Universality in Climate, Biodynamics and Stock Markets'. It is interdisciplinary by intent. ... The book delivers an invitation to explore new tools and an introduction to the application fields mentioned above which I found stimulating, with its breadth of coverage and wealth of references." (Greg Doherty, The Physicist, Vol. 41 (1), 2003)