Econometric Model of India

Agarwala, Ramgopal

Part 1 Introduction: the macro-model; the data; the outline. Part 2 A theory of stagnation and growth: a macro-model in a closed economy; money in growth; growth and the foreign sector; the summary. Part 3 The statistical form of the model: production functions; employment functions; investment functions; money, wages and prices; miscellaneous equations; the model as a whole; method of estimation of the parameters of the model - ordinary least squares v. simultaneous equation methods. Part 4 Production and employment: agricultural production function; food-grains production function; employment function; non-agricultural production function. Part 5 Money, wages and prices: the money supply and the absolute price level; money wages and prices; miscellaneous price equations. Part 6 Investment and foreign trade: investment in the agricultural sector; investment in non-agricultural sector; foreign trade sector. Part 7 Summary of the results: the model; the test statistics; results of simultaneous equation methods. Part 8 Applications of the model - a simulation approach: a note on simulation approach; prediction within and beyond the sample; planning for a target rate of growth; analysis of the effects of variation in exogenous variables. Part 9 A note on India's third five year plan. Appendix - the compilation of the data.