Estimating Risk

Risk management has grown in importance in most organisations, but in many remains at the level of an intuitive or gut-feel approach. This book argues that this fails to make the most of the techniques available and that organisations can improve their risk decision making by using risk models. It explores the role of quantitative techniques.

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Andy Garlick's book explores the role of quantitative techniques in modern risk management. Risk management has grown in importance in most organisations in the last 20 years, but in many remains simply a matter of processing lists of risks and actions. The author argues that this fails to make the most of the techniques available and that organisations can improve their risk decision making by using risk models. His book describes a broad range of modelling techniques, all illustrated by business-relevant examples. The role of the models in decision making is also discussed, with particular emphasis on what the risk premium - the price people charge for accepting risk - is and should be. In order to provide a self contained account the underpinning material from probability and decision theory is also included, so that the book will provide a handy reference guide for all practitioners. The discussion is consistently informal, and the book provides a critical view of the accepted wisdom in risk management. This book will enable managers and their specialist advisors to improve their approach to risk whilst removing the mystique.