Cognitive Operations (eBook)

Acknowledgments 6
Contents 7
About the Author 9
List of Figures 10
List of Tables 14
1 What Is Cognitive Operations? 16
1.1 Behavioral Operations 16
1.2 Cognitive Operations 18
Notes 21
Part I A Cognitive Perspective 26
2 Optimization and Simple Heuristics 27
2.1 When Do People Take Risks? 27
2.2 The Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty 28
2.3 Expected Utility Theory 30
2.4 Minimax and Maximax 32
2.5 Two Approaches to Modeling Human Behavior 35
2.6 The Kind of Studies in This Book 38
2.7 Summary 42
Notes 42
3 Decision Under Risk 49
3.1 Empirical Phenomena 50
3.2 Prospect Theory 53
3.3 Priority Heuristic 56
3.4 Predictive Power 60
3.5 Cognitive Processes 64
3.6 Transparency 67
3.7 Usefulness of Output 70
3.8 Summary and Resources 75
Notes 76
4 Strategic Interaction 89
4.1 Giving and Receiving Ultimatums: Theory and Data 91
4.2 Inequity Aversion 94
4.3 Fast-and-Frugal Trees 97
4.4 Predicting Response Time Patterns 101
4.5 Cognitive Processes and Transparency 105
4.6 Theory Integration: Behavioral Outcomes 106
4.7 Beyond Bargaining Games 108
4.8 Summary and Segue 109
Notes 110
Part II Benefits of Cognitive Modeling 116
5 Inventory Control 117
5.1 The Newsvendor Problem: Theory and Data 118
5.2 Optimization 122
5.3 Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic 126
5.4 Correction Heuristic 128
5.5 Predictive Power 133
5.6 Assessment and Integration of Models 136
5.7 Bounded Rationality and AI in Operations 140
5.8 Summary 143
Notes 146
6 Decision Under Uncertainty 154
6.1 A Peace-Keeping Operation: Compliance Heuristic 156
6.2 Making Supply Chains Flexible and Robust 162
6.3 Ecological Rationality 165
6.4 Summary and a Guide 171
Notes 173
7 Behavioral and Cognitive Interventions 181
7.1 Behavior with AI 182
7.2 Nudge and Boost 184
7.3 Summary 188
Notes 188
8 Lessons Learned and a Positive Look Ahead 192
Notes 194
Appendix 195
Chapter 3: Decision Under Risk 195
Chapter 4: Strategic Interaction 199
Chapter 5: Inventory Control 199
Chapter 6: Decision Under Uncertainty 201
Bibliography 206
Author Index 232
Subject Index 238