Reliable, Secure and Resilient Logistics Networks (eBook)

Lech Bukowski is a Professor of Management Engineering at the University of Dąbrowa Górnicza (Poland). His areas of interest include System Science, especially Systems Engineering, Reliability Engineering, Resilience Engineering, Industrial Logistics and Management Engineering. He has published more than 220 scientific papers and is the author or co-author of 12 monographs in Polish, English and German.Bukowski graduated from the AGH University of Science and Technology Cracow (Ph.D. degree in 1976 and D.Sc. degree (Habilitation) in 1990) and was appointed Professor of Engineering in 1998. In 2003 he received an honorary professorial degree from the Technical University of Clausthal (Germany). He is an active member of the Scientific Committees of many international congresses and conferences (e.g. chairman of the Conference Total Logistic Management since 1996) and serves on the editorial boards of various scientific periodicals. He has been invited as a Visiting Professor to academic institutions in e.g. the United States, Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Bukowski’s professional career began at the Chemical Company “Azoty Tarnów” and continued as head of the research group at the Metallurgical Company “Nowa Huta” in Cracow. From 1976 to 1994 he was a lecturer at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow (Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Robotics), and from 1981 to 1987 he also served as an Assistant Professor at the Technical University of Clausthal in West Germany. From 1994 to 2003, Bukowski worked as a Professor of Engineering and Head of the Department for Systems Quality and Reliability. He worked at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow as Head of the Systems Engineering Department (2003–2006), Head of the Management Engineering Department (2006–2012), and Dean of the Faculty (2005–2012). Since 2013 he has been working at WSB University as Director of the Business Engineering Center. 

Preface 6
Acknowledgements 9
Contents 10
Abbreviations 13
1 Introduction 16
1.1 A Brief History of Logistics Development 16
1.2 Defining the Key Terms in Logistics 19
References 21
2 Assessment Knowledge About Engineered Systems 23
2.1 Concept of Imperfect Knowledge 23
2.1.1 From Knowledge Pyramid to Imperfect Knowledge Chain 23
2.1.2 Data and Information Imperfection 26
2.1.3 The Process of Knowledge Creating and Managing 31
2.1.4 Knowledge Maturity Assessment 35
2.2 Uncertainty Modelling 37
2.2.1 General Concept of Uncertainty 37
2.2.2 Uncertainty Modelling Methods 43
2.2.2.1 Formalized Languages 44
2.2.2.2 Monotonic Measures 46
2.3 Imperfect Knowledge Based Concept of Risk 49
2.3.1 Defining Risk 49
2.3.2 The Role of Background Knowledge in Risk Analysis 51
2.3.3 Risk Types and Its Metrics 55
2.3.4 Modelling Operational Risk Based on the Imperfect Knowledge Concept 68
References 71
3 Describing Engineered Systems 73
3.1 Infrastructures—Topology-Based Methodology 73
3.1.1 System Approach—Systems Engineering 73
3.1.2 Complexity and Emergence—System of Systems and Network Organisation 81
3.2 Processes—Flow-Based Methodology 88
3.2.1 Process Approach—Service Engineering 88
3.2.2 Delivery Processes—Supply, Demand and Distribution 93
3.3 Attributes of Engineered Systems 99
3.3.1 Performance-Related Measures 99
3.3.2 Operationality Related Measures 102
References 105
4 Designing Complex Engineered Systems for the Risky Environment 107
4.1 Creating Reliable Infrastructures 107
4.1.1 System of Systems Engineering 107
4.1.2 Engineered System of Systems and Its Main Attributes 109
4.1.3 Architecting Reliable ESoS 112
4.1.4 Building High Reliability Organisations 118
4.2 Assurance Process Continuity 124
4.2.1 From High Reliable Organisation Concept to Resilience Engineering Approach 124
4.2.2 Resilience Science—Transdisciplinary Perspective 126
4.2.3 Organisational Resilience—The Concept of Resilient Enterprise 134
4.2.4 From Resilient Enterprise Concept to Process Continuity Ensuring 138
4.3 Managing Operational Risk—The Concept of Dependable Operating 143
4.3.1 From Reliability Engineering to Dependability Engineering 143
4.3.2 Disruption-Tolerant Operating—The Continuity Oriented Approach 148
4.3.3 Operational Risk Based Concept of Dependability 151
References 154
5 Modelling and Simulation of Logistic Networks 165
5.1 Modelling and Simulation of Complex Engineered Systems 165
5.1.1 Main Principles of Modelling and Simulation 165
5.1.2 The Life Cycle of a Modelling and Simulation Process 173
5.2 Modelling of Logistic Infrastructures—Agent Based Approach 178
5.2.1 Fundamentals of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation 178
5.2.2 Using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation in Logistics 182
5.3 Modelling of Logistic Processes—Dynamic Based Approach 185
5.3.1 General Rules for Managing the Flow Processes 185
5.3.2 Classification of Processes and Their Properties—APQC Model 187
5.3.3 Process Specification Standards 188
5.3.3.1 BPMN Notation—A Process Meta-model 188
5.3.3.2 EPC Notation—Event Chain Model 189
5.3.3.3 Flow Charts 189
5.3.3.4 Entity Relationship Diagrams—ERD 190
5.3.3.5 Data Flow Diagrams—DFD 191
5.3.3.6 Petri’s Network 192
5.3.3.7 Modelling of Value Flows—Value Stream Mapping (VSM) Method 193
5.3.3.8 Reference Models—SCOR Model and Its Modifications 195
5.3.3.9 Reference Models—The ARIS Platform 197
5.3.4 Process Dynamic Modelling and Simulation 199
5.4 Modelling of Demand Variation in Logistic Networks—Probabilistic Approach 203
5.4.1 Predictable Volatility 203
5.4.1.1 Statistical Methods 203
5.4.1.2 Time Series Methods 205
5.4.2 Unpredictable Variability 207
5.4.2.1 Modelling by Analogies 207
5.4.2.2 Heuristic Methods 208
5.5 Modelling of Disturbances in Logistic Network—Event Driven Approach 211
5.5.1 Identification of Sources of Risk, Threats and Hazards 211
5.5.2 Modelling of Exposures in Logistics Networks 214
5.5.2.1 Modelling of Exposures Predictable with Probabilistic Methods 215
5.5.2.2 Modelling of Exposures Unpredictable with Probabilistic Methods 220
References 224
6 Assessment Operational Risk and Dependability of Logistic Networks—Application Examples 228
6.1 A Framework for Evaluation of Logistic Networks Operational Risk and Dependability—ELNORD 228
6.2 Application Examples of the ELNORD Framework 234
6.2.1 A Risk Oriented Static Approach—A Modified PFMEA Method 234
6.2.1.1 Supplier Selection Methods 235
6.2.1.2 Risk Assessment Methodology—Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 238
6.2.1.3 Modified Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for Supply Risk Assessment 239
6.2.1.4 Conclusions 245
6.2.2 A Process Continuity Oriented Approach—An Expert System with Fuzzy Reasoning for Disruption Risk Prediction in Logistics Networks 247
6.2.2.1 A Framework for Disruption Risk Evaluation of a Logistics Network 247
6.2.2.2 Implementation Example of the Framework 249
6.2.2.3 Conclusions 253
6.2.3 A Vulnerability Related Dynamic Approach—An Expert System with Agent-Based Simulation 253
6.2.3.1 Logistic Networks Vulnerability and Resilience Metrics 254
6.2.3.2 Research Subject 257
6.2.3.3 Research Methodology 258
6.2.3.4 Research Results 261
References 263
Conclusions and Concluding Considerations 267
Appendix: Terminology 271