The Foundations of Econometric Analysis

Introduction; Part I. The Emerging Role of Econometrics in Economics: 1. The scope and method of political economy J. N. Keynes; 2. Business cycles W. C. Mitchell; 3. Economic cycles: their law and cause H. L. Moore; 4. An essay on the nature and significance of economic science L. Robbins; 5. The common sense of econometrics J. A. Schumpeter; Part II. Early Time Series Analysis: 6. On the study of periodic commercial fluctuations W. S. Jevons; 7. Correlation of the marriage rate with trade R. H. Hooker; 8. The correlation of economic statistics W. M. Persons; 9. Why do we get nonsense correlations between time series? G. U. Yule; 10. On a method of investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with special reference to Wolfer's sunspot numbers G. U. Yule; 11. A random difference series for use in the analysis of time series H. Working; 12. Calculation and elimination of seasonal fluctuations A. Wald; 13. Morgenstern on economic forecasting A. W. Marget; Part III. Applied Econometrics and the Identification Problem: 14. The elasticity of the demand for wheat R. A. Lehfeldt; 15. Economic cycles: their law and cause H. L. Moore; 16. Moore's economic cycles P. G. Wright; 17. A moving equilibrium of demand and supply H. L. Moore; 18. Statistical laws of demand and supply P. G. Wright; 19. Determination and interpretation of supply curves J. Tinbergen; Part IV. The Evolution of Statistical Thinking in Econometrics: 20. Statistical laws of demand and supply with special application to sugar H. Schultz; 21. 'Pitfalls' debate R. Frisch, W. W. Leontief and J. Marschak; 22. Statistical confluence analysis by means of complete regression systems R. Frisch; 23. Linear regression analysis of economic time series T. C. Koopmans; 24. Statistical testing of business cycle theories J. Tinbergen; 25. Residual variables in regression and confluence analysis O. Reiersöl; Part V. Dynamic Models: 26. Our unstable dollar and the so-called business cycle I. Fisher; 27. The notions of horizon and expectance in dynamic economics J. Tinbergen; 28. Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics R. Frisch; 29. Statistical testing of business cycle theories: business cycles in the United States of America 1919–32 J. Tinbergen; 30. Statistical estimation of economic relationships H. O. A. Wold; 31. Prolegomena to a pressure-analysis of economic phenomena R. Frisch; Part VI. The Tinbergen Debate: 32. Statistical testing of business cycle theories: a method and its application to investment activity J. Tinbergen; 33. Professor Tinbergen's method J. N. Keynes; 34. Mr Keynes on the statistical verification of business cycle theories J. Marschak and O. Lange; 34. Econometric testing of business cycle research J. Tinbergen; 35. Autonomy of economic relations R. Frisch; Part VII. Structure and Simultaneity: 36. Economic interdependence and statistical analysis J. Marschak; 37. The probability approach in econometrics T. Haavelmo; 38. The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations T. Haavelmo; 39. Statistical estimation of economic relationships H. O. A. Wold; Part VIII. The Probabilistic Revolution: 40. The probability approach in econometrics T. Haavelmo; 41. 'Measurement without theory' debate T. C. Koopmans, R. Vining, and M. Hastay; Part IX. Exogeneity: 42. When is an equation system complete for statistical purposes? T. C. Koopmans; 43. Towards partial redirection of econometrics, actions, consequences and casual relations G. H. Orcutt; Conclusion.