Business Cycles

Acknowledgments Preface I: Theories and Evidence 1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview 2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective 3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations 4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements 5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau II: History and Measurement 6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction 7: Business Cycles and Growth 8: The Regularity of Business Cycles 9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy III: Indicators 10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses 11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators 12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun IV: Forecasting 13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions 14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts 15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts 16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts 17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros 18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting References Author Index Subject Index