Economic Forecasting and Policy

NICOLAS CARNOT is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies in the French Treasury. He has held several positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, where he has been involved in macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy advice.     VINCENT KOEN is a Senior Official in the OECD Economics Department and has long been one of the main authors of its Economic Outlook. He has also held positions at the International Monetary Fund and the French Central Bank. He authored a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT.    BRUNO TISSOT is Adviser to the General Manager of the BIS, where he previously was the Secretary of the Markets Committee of Central Banks. Before joining the BIS, he ran the International Economic Synthesis Division at the French Ministry of Finance. With Nicolas Carnot, he co-authored La Prévision Économique, which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

Introduction Overview  Business Cycle Analysis  Real Sector Building Blocks  Financial Sector Dynamics  Public Finances  Medium and Long-Run Projections  Risks and Accuracy  Policymaking and Forecasts Appendix: A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions Annex I: The Data Annex II: Time Series Methods Annex III: Macroeconomic Models Bibliography Index