Dendroclimatology (eBook)

Malcolm K. Hughes: Regents’ Professor of Dendrochronology and Director Emeritus, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona is a paleoclimatologist specializing in the use of tree rings and other annual records to reconstruct and understand the past behavior of the climate system on geographic scales from local to global, and from time scales ranging from years to millennia. He has carried out research in Europe, North America, Russia, China, India and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Professor Hughes is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and Chair-Elect of the Section on Geology and Geography of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Thomas W. Swetnam, Professor of Dendrochronology and Director of Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, is a forest ecologist and dendrochronologist specializing in the study of forest fires, insect outbreaks, and forest demography and the climatic and human causes of variations in forest ecosystems; graduate training in forestry, watershed management, and dendrochronology at the University of Arizona; has carried out extensive research in western North America, and in areas of South America and Siberia, Russia. Henry F. Diaz is a research climatologist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado-Boulder. He is a recognized expert on the El Niño phenomenon, modern and paleo-climate changes, climate impacts, and other topics, and has published dozens of scientific journal articles on various topics related to the subject of climatic variations. He has edited several books, on topics such as El Niño, Climate Change and Water Resources, Climate Change in Mountains, and Climate Extremes and Society. He retired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2007 after a distinguished 33 years career in the federal civil service. Dr Diaz is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.

Preface 5
Contents 7
Contributors 9
Part I Introductory Section 13
1 High-Resolution Paleoclimatology 14
1.1 Introduction 14
1.2 Data Sources for High-Resolution Paleoclimatology 16
1.3 Chronology and Replication 16
1.4 High-Resolution Sampling 17
1.5 Relationships Between Natural Archives and Climate 18
1.6 Uniformitarianism 19
1.7 Frequency Response 21
1.8 High-Resolution Proxies: Challenges and Opportunities 22
References 24
2 Dendroclimatology in High-Resolution Paleoclimatology 27
2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 Sample Design in Dendroclimatology 28
2.2.1 Natural Archives and Proxy Climate Records 28
2.2.2 Single Site Chronologies 29
2.2.3 Networks and the Relationship Between Crossdating and the Emergence of Climate Signal from Networks of Tree-Ring Data 31
2.3 Climate Signal in Tree-Ring Properties 33
2.3.1 Identifying Signal---An Empirical-Statistical Approach 33
2.3.2 Identifying Climate Signal---Process-Modeling Approaches 34
2.4 Stability of the Climate Signal 35
2.4.1 Temporal Stability 35
2.4.2 Recent Reports of Divergence Between Temperature and Tree-Ring Density and Width 35
2.5 The Quest for Unbiased Chronologies 37
2.5.1 The Problem 37
2.6 Final Thoughts 39
References 41
Part II Scientific Bases of Dendroclimatology 45
3 How Well Understood Are the Processes that Create Dendroclimatic Records? A Mechanistic Model of the Climatic Control on Conifer Tree-Ring Growth Dynamics 46
3.1 Introduction 46
3.1.1 The Substrate Source-Sink Hypothesis 47
3.1.2 The Cambial Control Hypothesis 49
3.2 Cambial Activity 51
3.3 Cell Expansion 55
3.4 Cell Wall Thickening 58
3.5 Effect of Climatic Factors on Tree-Ring Structure (Light, Temperature, and Water) 61
3.5.1 Temperature 61
3.5.2 Water 62
3.5.3 Light 63
3.6 Toward a Quantitative Description of Cambial Activity and Xylem Differentiation Under Environmental Control 63
3.7 Process Model Description 66
3.7.1 Growth (Environmental) Block 66
3.7.2 Cambial Block 68
3.8 Model Applications 70
3.8.1 Local Simulations 71
3.8.2 Mesoscale Network Simulations 74
3.8.3 Large Network Intercomparisons 75
3.8.4 Uncertainties and Caveats 75
3.9 Conclusion 77
References 78
4 Uncertainty, Emergence, and Statistics in Dendrochronology 85
4.1 Introduction 86
4.2 Uncertainty 87
4.3 Emergence 89
4.4 Statistics 94
4.5 Correlation and Response Function Analysis 95
4.6 Response Functions and Empirical Signal Strength 103
4.7 Additional Response Function Interpretations 109
4.8 Some Implications for Climate Reconstruction 111
4.9 Concluding Remarks 113
Appendix 114
References 117
5 A Closer Look at Regional Curve Standardization of Tree-Ring Records: Justification of the Need, a Warning of Some Pitfalls, and Suggested Improvements in Its Application 121
5.1 Introduction 122
5.2 Frequency Limitation in Curve-Fitting Standardization 123
5.3 Background and Description of Regional Curve Standardization 124
5.4 Potential Biases in RCS 125
5.4.1 'Trend-in-Signal' Bias 126
5.4.2 'Differing-Contemporaneous-Growth-Rate' Bias 129
5.4.3 'Modern-Sample' Bias 130
5.4.3.1 Relationship Between Growth Rate and Longevity 130
5.4.3.2 Growth Rate/Longevity Association Distorts RCS Curves 132
5.5 Particular Problems Associated with the Application of RCS to Modern (i.e., Living-Tree) Sample Data 135
5.6 Examples of Issues that Arise in Various Applications of RCS 137
5.6.1 Inappropriate RCS Definition 137
5.6.2 Application of RCS Across Wide Species and Climate Ranges 140
5.6.3 Adaption of RCS to Account for Non-climate Bias 142
5.7 Discussion and Suggested Directions for RCS Development 145
5.8 Conclusions 149
Appendix: Signal-Free Standardization 150
Background and Rationale 150
Implementing Signal-Free Standardization 151
References 151
6 Stable Isotopes in Dendroclimatology: Moving Beyond `Potential' 154
6.1 Scope and Background 155
6.2 Theoretical Background 155
6.2.1 Stable Carbon Isotope Theory 156
6.2.2 Stable Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotope Theory 157
6.3 Sampling and Measurement 158
6.3.1 A Note on New Measurement Techniques 160
6.3.2 Data Treatment of Stable Isotope Time Series 162
6.4 Progress to Date 163
6.5 Future Directions 167
6.5.1 Climate of the Moist Midlatitudes 169
6.5.2 Different Climate Signals 170
6.5.3 Tropical Isotope Dendroclimatology 171
6.5.4 Long-Term Response of d13C to Rising CO2 Concentrations 172
6.6 Is It Worth It? A Reply to Hughes (2002) 173
References 174
Part III Reconstruction of Climate Patterns and Values Relative to Today's Climate 180
7 Dendroclimatology from Regional to Continental Scales: Understanding Regional Processes to Reconstruct Large-Scale Climatic Variations Across the Western Americas 181
7.1 Introduction 182
7.2 Oscillatory Modes of Climate Variability Across the Western Cordilleras 184
7.2.1 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 185
7.2.2 Pacific Interdecadal Mode 185
7.2.3 Annular Modes 188
7.3 Tree-Ring Records Across the Western Americas 189
7.3.1 Temperature-Sensitive Records 192
7.3.1.1 Extratropical Pacific Ocean 194
7.3.1.2 Tropical Pacific Ocean 200
7.3.1.3 High-Latitude Oscillations 201
7.3.2 Precipitation-Sensitive Records 204
7.3.2.1 Subtropical Precipitation and ENSO 213
7.3.2.2 Dominant Oscillations in Precipitation Variations 217
7.4 Future Research 222
7.5 Discussion and Conclusions 225
References 228
Part IV Applications of Dendroclimatology 234
8 Application of Streamflow Reconstruction to Water Resources Management 235
8.1 Introduction 236
8.2 Historical Background of Streamflow Reconstructions 237
8.3 Contributions to the Study of Water Resources 240
8.3.1 Extensions of Gauge Flow Records 240
8.3.2 Probabilistic Interpretation of Streamflow Reconstructions: Example for the Colorado River 246
8.3.3 Applications to Water Resource Management: A Case Study Using the Denver Water Board 251
8.3.4 Informing the Public 254
8.4 Challenges 256
8.4.1 High Flows 256
8.4.2 Seasonality 256
8.4.3 Uncertainty 257
8.4.4 Communication 259
8.4.5 Climate Change 259
8.5 Conclusion 260
References 261
9 Climatic Inferences from Dendroecological Reconstructions 266
9.1 Introduction 267
9.2 Examples of Dendroecological-Climate Reconstructions 269
9.2.1 Fire History and Fire Climatology 269
9.2.2 Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks and Climatic Entrainment 274
9.2.2.1 Confounding of Dendroclimatic Signals by Insect Outbreaks 278
9.2.3 Regional Tree Demography and Climate Effects 279
9.3 The Late Eighteenth-Century, Early Nineteenth-Century Fire Gap 286
9.4 Ecologically Effective Climate Change 291
References 293
10 North American Tree Rings, Climatic Extremes, and Social Disasters 299
10.1 Introduction 299
10.2 Tree-Ring Analyses of Climate Extremes and Human Impacts 305
10.3 Social Impacts of Climate Extremes During the Historic Era 309
10.4 Suspected Social Impacts of Drought Extremes During the Precolonial Era 320
10.5 Summary 324
References 325
Part V Overview 330
11 Tree Rings and Climate: Sharpening the Focus 331
11.1 Introduction 331
11.2 Spectrum of Climate Variability 332
11.3 Reconstruction of Regional to Hemispheric Temperature for Recent Centuries 333
11.4 Causes of Climate Variability in the Past Millennium 335
11.5 Climate Sensitivity 336
11.6 Circulation Features and Regional Climates 337
11.7 The Current State of Play 339
11.8 The Importance of Networks 340
11.9 Growth in the Applications of Dendroclimatology: the 1990s to Present 341
11.10 Prospects for Dendroclimatology 344
References 346
Index 354