The Physics of Stocks and Flows of Energy Systems (eBook)

Preface 7
Approach of This Book 8
Outline of Book 8
Use and Users of Book 8
Acknowledgments 10
Contents 11
1 Energy Policy Making: A Complex Dynamic Task 14
1.1 Introduction 14
1.2 Dynamics of Energy Policy: An Overview 16
1.3 Organization of This Book 18
1.4 Summary 19
References 19
2 Modeling and Simulation in Service of Energy Policy: The Challenges 20
2.1 Energy Systems Modeling and Its Challenges 20
2.1.1 Uncertainties Abound 21
2.1.2 Existence of Nonlinear Relationships Is a Reality 22
2.1.3 Time Lags Can't Be Ignored 23
2.1.4 Causation Not Correlation Informs Strategic Decisions 23
2.1.5 Energy Systems Are Essentially Feedback Systems 24
2.2 Summary 24
References 25
3 Meeting the Challenges: Energy Policy Modeling with System Dynamics 26
3.1 System Dynamics and Energy Policy Modeling 26
3.2 Modeling Causality in Systems Dynamics 29
3.3 CLD as a Tool to Represent a Dynamic Hypothesis 33
3.4 Energy System as a System of Interconnected Feedback Loops of Stocks and Flows 34
3.5 The Language: Representation of Stocks and Flows 35
3.6 Summary 37
References 38
4 Understanding the Physics of Stocks and Flows 40
4.1 Physics of a Positive Feedback Loop: A Growth-Propelling Behavior 40
4.2 Physics of a Negative Feedback Loop: A Goal-Seeking Behavior 42
4.3 Dynamics of Material Delays and Information Averaging Processes 45
4.3.1 Basic Dynamics of Material Delays in Energy Systems 45
4.3.2 Structure and Behavior of Information Delays of Energy Systems 47
4.4 Dynamics of Nonlinearities of Energy Systems 49
4.5 Summary 50
References 51
5 On the Modeling of Key Structural Process of Energy Systems 52
5.1 Stocks and Flows of Energy Demand Process 52
5.2 Modeling of Interfuel Substitution Process and Policy Incentives 55
5.3 Stocks and Flows of the Manpower Recruitment and Training Processes 58
5.4 Dynamics of Energy Production Process: Energy Supply System 60
5.5 Stocks and Flows of Environmental Emissions and CO2 Tax 62
5.6 Understanding the Physics of Other Energy Systems Related Processes 66
5.7 Stocks and Flows Based View Is All About the Integration 66
5.8 Summary 68
References 68
6 Physics of Stocks and Flows in Action 70
6.1 Model 1: Green Power in Ontario (Source: Qudrat-Ullah 2014) 70
6.1.1 Context and Objective of Model (i.e., Model 1) Development 70
6.1.2 Overview of Model 1 Structure 71
6.1.3 Validity Testing of Model 1 73
6.1.4 Key Insights and Energy Policy Implications 73
6.2 Model 2: MDESRAP (Source: Qudrat-Ullah 2015) 74
6.2.1 The Context and Objective of Model (i.e., Model 2) Development 74
6.2.2 Overview of MDESRAP Structure 75
6.2.3 Validity Testing of MDESRAP 75
6.2.4 Key Insights and Energy Policy Implications 77
6.3 Model 3: Electricity Generation Capacity in Canada (Source: Qudrat-Ullah 2013) 78
6.3.1 The Context and Objective of Model (i.e., Model 3) Development 78
6.3.2 Overview of Model 3 Structure 78
6.3.3 Validity Testing of Model 3 79
6.3.4 Key Insights and Energy Policy Implications 80
6.4 Summary 81
References 81
7 Finale 83
7.1 Roadmap for Improved Decision Making in the Energy Policy Domain 83
7.2 A Few Personal Reflections 84
Index 86