Broad Scale Coastal Simulation (eBook)

Robert Nicholls has studied coastal processes and coastal hazards for the last 25 years. In particular, he has an international reputation concerning climate change in coastal areas, especially the potential impacts and the possible responses. His research has involved studies across a range of scales from local (e.g., small towns) to the global. A distinctive dimension has been consideration of the coastal zone as a series of interacting systems which facilitates policy analysis. He has advised national governments (e.g., UK, Netherlands, Singapore, the Maldives) and intergovernmental organisations (e.g., OECD) on climate change and coastal issues, including as a lead author to five reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change assessment process. Currently, he is contributing to a series of research projects, including being Principal Investigator as follows:iCOASST – a NERC-funded consortium project on predicting decadal coastal morphological evolutionESPA Deltas – an ESPA (DFID/NERC/ESRC-funded) project which is examining the future of ecosystem services and human well-being in coastal Bangladesh;DECCMA – a CARRIA (IDRC/DFID-funded) project which is examining adaptation to climate change in the three contrasting deltas of the Volta, Mahanadi and Ganges-Brahmaputra Deltas, with a main focus on migration. He was awarded the Roger Revelle Medal by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in 2008. This recognises ‘outstanding contributions to the ocean sciences by inspired researchers who communicate their knowledge and global vision of the challenges facing our Planet in order to shape a better future for humankind’.See Web page: http://www.southampton.ac.uk/engineering/about/staff/rjn.page

Chapter 1 - The Challenge for Coastal Management During the Third MillenniumSummary1.1 Introduction1.2 Coastal Management in the Third Millennium: The Need for an Integrated Response1.3 Conceptualizing and Designing a Coastal Simulator1.4 Scenarios for Coastal Assessment1.5 The Study Sites1.6 Conclusions and Next StepsAcknowledgementsReferences Chapter 2 - Climate Downscaling: Local Mean Sea-Level, Surge and Wave ModellingSummary2.1 Introduction2.2. Regional Scale Variability in Climate and Sea Level2.3. Storms in the Present and Future Climate2.4. Model Forcing from Hadley Centre Climate Model2.5. Surge and Wave Models and the Downscaling Methodology2.6. Model Results for Future Climate Scenarios2.7. Conclusions and Next StepsAcknowledgementsReferences Chapter 3 - Broad-Scale Hydrodynamic Simulation, Wave Transformation and Sediment PathwaysSummary       3.1 Introduction3.2 Methodology for Transferring Waves and Surge Towards the Coastline and Assessing Residual Sediment Transport3.3 Changes in Inshore Waves Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise         3.4 Influence of Sea Level Rise on Sediment Pathways3.5. Conclusions and Next StepsReferences    Chapter 4 – Land Use Dynamics and Coastal Management Summary4.1. Introduction4.2. Modelling Land Use Change in Coastal Areas4.2.1 Challenges4.2.2 Spatial Dynamic Modelling: Some Principles4.2.3 Socio-Economic Storylines4.3. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with an Algorithm-Based Approach4.4. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with A Choice-Based Approach4.5. Conclusions and Next StepsReferences Chapter 5 - Evaluating Broad-Scale Morphological Change in the Coastal Zone Using a Logic Based Behavioural Systems ApproachSummary1.1 Introduction1.2 Capturing Current Knowledge and Understanding1.3 Illustrative Application to the East Anglian Coast, UK1.4 Benefits of a Qualitative Deductive Assessment1.5 Conclusions and Next StepsReferences Chapter 6 – Coastal Wetland Habitats: Future Challenges and Potential Solutions         Summary       6.1 Introduction        6.2 The Tyndall Simulator Approach6.3 Conclusions and Next Steps  References    Chapter 7 – Simulating the Shore and Cliffs of North NorfolkSummary7.1 Introduction        7.2 Description of the Coast          7.3 Model Construction      7.4 Future Climate Change and Coastal Management                        7.5 Results    7.6 Conclusions and Next Steps  References    Chapter 8 – Broad Scale Coastal Inundation ModellingSummary       8.1 Introduction        8.2 Approaches to Coastal Inundation Modelling         8.3 Application to North Norfolk    8.4 Conclusions and Next Steps  AcknowledgementsReferences Chapter 9 – Broad Scale Flood and Erosion Risk Analysis Chapter 10 – Visualising Potential Coastal Change: Communicating Results Using Visualisation Techniques   Summary       10.1 Introduction – Challenges Associated with Communicating and Visualising Coastal Change      10.2 The Coastal Simulator – Visualisation Approach(Es)      10.3 Exploring Coastal Futures – Testing the Visualisations in Coastal Decision-Making and Stakeholder Engagement  10.4 Conclusions and Next Steps            References    Chapter 11 – The Coastal Simulator Interface: Integration and Application Chapter 12 – Many Stakeholders, Multiple Perspectives: Long-Term Planning for a Future CoastSummary       12.1 Introduction      12.2 The Challenges of a Changeable Coast: North Norfolk, UK      12.3 Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator                   12.4 Shifting Sands: Lessons Learned for Managing a Changing Coast    12.5 Conclusions and Next Steps            References    Chapter 13 – Living with Uncertainty: Difficult Choices for Coastal Management in the UK During the Third Millennium      Summary       13.1 Introduction      13.2 Re-Visiting the Response to the 1953 Event         13.3 How the Simulator Approach Helps Improve Coastal Management     13.4 The Process of Developing a Coastal Simulator: What Have We Learnt?       13.5 Key Lessons for UK Coastal Management: Transferring the Simulator for Wider Application         13.6 Key Lessons for Researchers and Research Funders to Develop UK Coastal Simulator Capacity            References    Chapter 14 – Generic Lessons for Coastal Management in the Third Millennium Summary       14.1 Introduction      14.2 Key Threats, Opportunities and Priorities for Adaptation and Development in Coastal Areas in the Next 5 Decades        14.3 Transference of Methods and the Wider Lessons for the International Community14.4 Coastal Management for the Third Millennium – A Manifesto for Research, Development and Collaboration            References