Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (eBook)

Contents 5
Contributors 7
Positioning Future-Oriented Technology Analysis 9
1.1 Background 9
1.2 Generations and Principles 10
1.3 FTA and Decision-Making Processes 13
1.4 What We Would Like to Know About FTA but still Don’t 15
1.5 Summary of Chapters 17
References 21
Part I FTA in Context 22
Historical Review of the Development of Future- Oriented Technology Analysis 23
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Forecasting and Foresight 24
2.3 Technology Assessment 27
2.4 Conclusion 28
References 28
Fitting Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Methods to Study Types 30
3.1 Introduction 30
3.2 Features of FTA Activities 31
3.3 Matching Goals and Methods 34
3.4 FTA Types 36
3.5 Putting the Pieces Together: FTA Methods and Types 40
3.6 Conclusions 42
References 44
Revisiting Foresight Rationales: What Lessons from the Social Sciences and Humanities? 46
4.1 Introduction 46
4.2 The Promise of SSH? 48
4.3 Conceptualising Foresight 49
4.4 Putting Theory into Practice? 56
References 57
Monstrous Foresight 58
5.1 There’s No Future in Foresight 58
5.2 There’s No Future Because we Won’t Let it in 59
5.3 Is There a Future for Foresight? 65
5.4 What Might this Mean in Practice? Some Preliminary Thoughts 68
5.5 Conclusion 71
References 72
Part II FTA Applications 74
Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument: Learning from Science and Technology Studies 75
6.1 Introduction 75
6.2 Foresight and its Role Within the Innovation Process 76
6.3 Social Shaping of Technology 80
6.4 Some Implications for Foresight 85
6.5 Conclusions 88
References 89
Strategic Intelligence in Decision Making 92
7.1 Introduction 92
7.2 Evidence for Policy 93
7.3 Decision Making 95
7.4 Policy as a Process 98
7.5 Interactions Between Strategic Intelligence Applications and Decision- Making 100
7.6 Case Study: A Joined Innovation Process 102
7.7 Conclusions 103
References 104
Corporate Foresight 106
8.1 Introduction 106
8.2 Why Foresight in Companies? 106
8.3 Types of Corporate Foresight 107
8.4 Objectives and Methods of FTA in and for Business 112
8.5 Impacts of Corporate FTA and Outlook 114
References 116
The Higher Education Sector and its Role in Research: Status and Impact of International Future- Oriented Technology Analysis 118
9.1 Introduction 118
9.2 The Landscape of FTA on Higher Education and its Role in Research 119
9.3 Methods, Approaches and Participation 123
9.4 Content of FTA on HE: Common Drivers of Change 124
9.5 Tracing Policy Focus, Trends and Impacts 128
9.6 Conclusion 130
References 130
Applying FTA Methods in Latin American Countries 133
10.1 Introduction 133
10.2 First Latin American Experiences in Future- Oriented Studies 134
10.3 Recent Experiences 137
10.4 Applying Different Methodologies 139
10.5 Difficulties for FTA in Less Developed Countries 142
10.6 The Challenges 144
References 147
Part III FTA Futures 148
New Methodological Developments in FTA 149
11.1 Introduction 149
11.2 What’s New in FTA Methods? 150
11.3 FTA Methods 151
11.4 Conclusions 158
References 159
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Future Directions 163
12.1 Building Capacity in the FTA Community 165
12.2 Building Community Links 166
12.3 Raising Awareness of FTA Among Potential Users 167
12.4 Preparedness to Address Global Problems 168
12.5 Evaluation, Monitoring and Quality Control 168