Hydrometeorological Extreme Events and Public Health

Franziska Matthies-Wiesler, Helmholtz Zentrum Munich, German Research Centre for Environmental Health, Munich, Germany Philippe Quevauviller, Vrije Universiteit Brussel & European Commission, Brussels, Belgium

List of Contributors viii

Editors x

Series Preface xi

Foreword xii
Maíre Connolly

1 Introduction 1
Ian Clark

2 Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in a Changing Climate 3
Enrico Scoccimarro and Antonio Navarra

2.1 Introduction 3

2.2 Modelling Past Extreme Events to Project Future Changes 5

2.2.1 Climate Models and Simulations 5

2.2.2 Observed Changes in Precipitation and Temperature 10

2.2.3 Expected Changes for the End of the Current Century 13

2.3 Conclusions 20

References 22

3 Climate Change and Health 26
Alistair Woodward

3.1 Introduction 26

3.2 The IPCC 5th Assessment Report 26

3.3 What Is New Since AR5? 30

3.4 Transition Risks 33

3.5 Co-Benefits – They are There, but Cannot be Assumed 33

3.6 Conclusion 34

References 35

4 Flooding and Public Health in a Changing Climate 38
Owen Landeg

4.1 Introduction 38

4.2 Types of Floods 38

4.3 Health Impacts of Flooding 39

4.3.1 Populations at Risk 39

4.3.2 Mortality 40

4.3.3 Flooding and Mental Health 41

4.3.4 Flooding and Infectious Diseases 42

4.3.5 Displacement, Evacuation and Sheltering 44

4.4 Health System Resilience 44

4.5 Flooding and Climate Change 46

4.6 Public Health Mitigation, Planning and Prevention 46

4.7 Conclusions 47

References 47

5 The Climate Change, Disaster Risk Reduction and Health Nexus 49
Demetrio Innocenti

5.1 Introduction 49

5.2 The Sendai Framework: Tackling Disaster Risk and Health at International Level 49

5.3 The Paris Agreement and the SDGS: Tackling Climate Change and Health 53

5.4 Comparative Analysis of the Three Frameworks 55

5.5 Conclusions 56

References 57

6 Preparedness and Response in View of Climate Change Impacting on Health Challenges 58
Virginia Murray and Lidia Mayner

6.1 Introduction 58

6.2 The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 59

6.2.1 Paris Agreement on Climate Change and Emergency Preparedness 60

6.3 Sustainable Development Goals 61

6.4 What are Hydrometeorological Extreme Events and How are They Defined? 62

6.5 Public Health Risk Management in Relation to Hydrological Extreme Events 64

6.5.1 International Health Regulations 2005 64

6.5.2 WHO Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework 2019 65

6.6 Public Health Risk Management – Some Specific Hydrometeorological Events Issues 67

6.6.1 Infectious Disease Associated with Hydrometeorological Extreme Events 67

6.6.2 Impacts of Climate Change Emergencies on Mental Health 69

6.7 Conclusions and Suggested Ways Forward 70

References 71

7 The Health Costs of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events 74
Gerardo Sanchez Martinez and Paul Hudson

7.1 Introduction 74

7.2 Estimating the Economic Costs of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events 76

7.2.1 HEE Risk Assessment and Data 77

7.2.2 Methods for Valuing Health Impacts in Monetary Terms 79

7.2.3 Projections of Changes in Health and Well-Being Costs of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events Under Different Climate Change Scenarios 85

7.3 Reducing or Off-Setting the Health Costs of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events 86

7.3.1 Increasing the Resilience of Health Systems to Hydrometeorological Extreme Events 87

7.3.2 The Role of Insurance and Other Tools 88

7.3.3 Innovative Funding Sources 89

7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations 90

References 92

8 Conclusions and Perspectives 99
Franziska Matthies-Wiesler and Philippe Quevauviller

8.1 Climate Change Mitigation Vs. Adaptation 99

8.2 Solution-Oriented Research 101

8.3 Community-Building 102

8.4 Strengthening International Partnerships 103

8.5 Perspectives 105

References 107

Index 109