Mathematical Modelling with Chernobyl Registry Data

In 1993, three institutes, belonging respectively to the Heidelberg Academy for the Humanities and Sciences, to the Russian Academy of Sciences, adn to the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences,launched a cooperative research project. The main aim is to develop mathematical methodologies needed for a metter information support in health policy decision-making in connection with the Chernobyl accident.

1 The Project.- 1.1 Objectives.- 1.2 Present Outcomes.- 2 The Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry.- 2.1 The Primary Registration and Examination Forms.- 2.2 Data Base and Data Processing.- 2.3 The Reconstruction of Absorbed Radiation Doses.- 3. Health Status Indicators.- 4. Mathematical Concepts.- 4.1 The Demand for a New Methodology.- 4.2 Semi-Markov Modelling.- 4.3 Heterogeneity.- 4.4 Unobserved States and Variables.- 4.5 Multiple Risks.- 4.6 Model Selection on Empirical Data.