Uncertainty and Risk (eBook)

Contents 5
Introduction 7
Foundations 12
Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice under Uncertainty 13
When an Event Makes a Difference 30
Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics 36
On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty 43
The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk 62
Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations 63
Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best 84
Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation 100
A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting 123
The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules 149
Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work Well with Binary Cues 150
On Generalized Secretary Problems 183
Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta- Decision on Group Decision Procedures 202
Models of Risk Attitude Modelling and Methodological Issues 215
Probabilistic Risk Analysis Versus Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations 216
A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferences 236
Active Search for Probability Information and Recall Performance: Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions? 254
Evolutionary Analysis of Risk Attitudes in Competitive Bidding Environments Using Simulation 268
Behavior in Risky Decisions: Focus on Risk Defusing 284