Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics

VIRGINIE COUDERT Economic Advisor, Financial Stability Coordination Department, Banque de France, France CÉCILE COUHARDE Lecturer, University of Paris 13, France VICTORIA DOBRYNSKAYA Assistant Professor, State University - Higher School of Economics, International College of Economics and Finance, Moscow, Russia JAN FRAIT Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Technical University, Ostrava, Czech Republic; Bank Board Member, Czech National Bank, Czech Republic LUBO KOMÁREK Advisor to the Bank Board Member, Czech National Bank, Czech Republic; Associate Professor, Prague School of Economics, Czech Republic; Vice-President, Czech Economic Society, Czech Republic RONALD MACDONALD Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy, University of Glasgow, UK MARTIN MELECKÝ Department of Economics, University of New South Wales, Australia CHRISTOS PAPAZOGLOU Senior Economist, Economic Research Department, Bank of Greece, Greece; Assistant Professor of Economics, Panteion University of Athens, Greece VIKTOR VÁRPALOTAI Assistant Professor, University of Budapest, Hungary; Researcher, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Hungary GREGORY DE WALQUE Economist, National Bank of Belgium, Belgium RAF WOUTERS Senior Economist, National Bank of Belgium, Belgium

Introduction PART I: THE PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES Three Exchange Rate Puzzles: Fact or Fiction?; R.MacDonald The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment of the Five Central European Countries Single Equation Approach; J.Frait, L.Komárek & M.Melecký Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China: Is the Renminbi Undervalued?; V.Coudert & C.Couharde PART II: EXCHANGE RATES DYNAMICS AND PASS-THROUGH EFFECTS Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effect and Monetary Policy in Russia; V.V.Dobrynskaya & D.V.Levando Disaggregated Econometric Models to Forecast Inflation in Hungary; V.Várpalotai PART III: EXCHANGE RATES DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL SHOCKS ON ECONOMIES An Open Economy DSGE Model Linking the Euro Area and the US Economy; G.de Walque & R.Wouters Liberalization Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the Transition Economies; C.Papazoglou