Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

John Morecroft is Senior Fellow in Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he teaches system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy to MBAs and executives. He develops models and simulators to study the long-term performance of firms and industries. He has collaborated with a wide range of organisations from Royal Dutch/Shell to BBC World Service and Harley Davidson. Before joining London Business School he was on the faculty of MIT's Sloan School of Management where he received his PhD.

About the Author. Foreword. Preface and Acknowledgements. How to Use This Book. Chapter 1: The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling. Introduction. A New Approach to Modelling. The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries. Model of a Natural Fishery. Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery. Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland: A Thought Experiment. A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time. Saving Bonavista: Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery. Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time. Preview of the Book and Topics Covered. Appendix: Archive Materials from World Dynamics. References. Chapter 2: Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking. Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society. A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams. Structure and Behaviour Through Time: Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow- to-Respond Shower. From Events to Dynamics and Feedback: Drug-related Crime. Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams: A Summary. Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-Based Growth Business. Causal Loop Diagrams: Basic Tips. References. Chapter 3: Modelling Dynamic Systems. Asset Stock Accumulation. The Coordinating Network. Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime. Equation Formulations. Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime. Benefits of Model Building and Simulation. References. Chapter 4: World of Showers. Getting Started. Inside World of Showers. Simulations of World of Showers B. References. Chapter 5: Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building. An Overview of the Modelling Process. Employment and Production Instability: Puzzling Performance Over Time and Computations in Production Control. Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics. Equation Formulations in Workforce Management. Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It. Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems. Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams. Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing. References. Chapter 6: The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion. Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption: A Conceptual Diffusion Model. The Bass Model: An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model. A Variation on Diffusion: The Rise of Low-Cost Air Travel in Europe. Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios. Conclusion. Appendix: More About the Fliers Model. References. Chapter 7: Managing Business Growth. A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment. Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure. An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy. Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth. Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth. Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment. Simulation Experiments. Redesign of the Investment Policy. Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity. Conclusion. Appendix: Gain of a Reinforcing Loop. References. Chapter 8: Industry Dynamics: Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers. Problem Articulation: Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price. Model Development Process. A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision making. Connecting the Pieces: A Feedback Systems View. A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession. Using the Model to Generate Scenarios. Devising New Scenarios. The Oil Producers' Microworld. References. Chapter 9: Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling. Urban Dynamics: Growth and Stagnation in Cities. Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care. Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy. Conclusion. Appendix: Alternative Simulation Approaches. References. Chapter 10: Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning. Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models. Models of Business and Social Systems. Tests for Building Confidence in Models. Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-Moving Consumer Goods. Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model. Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model. Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data. Summary of Confidence Building Tests. Conclusion: Model Fidelity and Usefulness. References. Index.