Economic Forecasting

NICOLAS CARNOT is Head of the Domestic Economic Outlook Division at the Ministry of Finance, France. He has held several economist positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund. His research focuses on macroeconomics and macroeconomic modelling. VINCENT KOEN is Principal Economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and one of the main authors of the OECD Economic Outlook. He was previously an economist at the International Monetary Fund and the French Central Bank. He has written a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT. BRUNO TISSOT is Senior Economist at the Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland and previously ran the International Economic Synthesis Division in the Forecasting Directorate of the French Ministry of Finance. His research focuses on macroeconomics and macroeconomic monitoring. With Nicolas Carnot he co-authored La Prévision Économique, which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

Foreword by; J.-P. Cotis Introduction First Principles The Data Incoming News and Near-term Forecasting Time Series Methods Modelling Behaviour Macroeconomic Models Medium and Long-run Projections Financial and Commodity Markets Budget Forecasts Sectoral Forecasting Accuracy Using the Forecasts Communication Challenges A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions Epilogue