Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management

Dale Lehman is Professor of Economics and Director of the MBA Program at Alaska Pacific University. He also teaches courses at Danube University and the Vienna University of Technology. He has held positions at a dozen universities and for several telecommunications companies. He holds a B.A. in Economics from SUNY at Stony Brook and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Rochester. He has authored numerous articles and two books on topics related to microeconomic theory, decision making under uncertainty, and public policy, particularly concerning telecommunications and natural resources. Huybert Groenendaal is a managing partner and senior risk analysis consultant at EpiX Analytics. As a consultant, he helps clients using risk analysis modeling techniques in a broad range of industries. He has extensive experience in risk modeling in business development, financial valuation, and R&D portfolio evaluation within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, but also works regularly in a variety of other fields, including investment management, health and epidemiology, and inventory management. He also teaches a number of risk analysis training classes, gives guest lectures at a number of universities, and is adjunct professor at Colorado State University. He holds a M.Sc. and Ph.D. from Wageningen University and an MBA in Finance from the Wharton School of Business. Greg Nolder is VP of Applied Analytics at Denali Alaskan Federal Credit Union. The mission of the Applied Analytics Department is to promote and improve the application of analytical techniques for measuring and managing risks at Denali Alaskan as well as the greater credit union industry. Along with Huybert, Greg is also an instructor of risk analysis courses for Statistics.com. Prior to Denali Alaskan he has had a varied career including work with EpiX Analytics as a risk analysis consultant for clients from numerous industries, sales engineer, application engineer, test engineer, and air traffic controller. Greg received a M.S. in Operations Research from Southern Methodist University as well as a B.S. in Electrical Engineering and a B.S. in Aviation Technology, both from Purdue University.

Conceptual Maps and Models. Basic Monte Carlo Simulation in Spreadsheets. Modeling with Objects. Selecting Distributions. Modeling Relationships. Time Series Models. Optimization and Decision Making. Appendix A: Monte Carlo Simulation Software.