Demographic Perspective of China’s Economic Development

Cai Fang is Professor, Vice President and Party Group Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Professor Cai’s research interests include labor economics, China’s economic growth, and income distribution. His recent publications include Demystifying the Economic Growth in Transition China, China’s Economic Growth Prospects: From Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend, and Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening-Up?

Part One New Stage of Demographic Transition

1. Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, and the Lewis Turning Point in China

2. The End of China’s Demographic Dividend: The Perspective of Potential GDP Growth

3. Approaching a Neoclassical Scenario: The Labor Market in China after the Lewis Turning Point

4. China’s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective

Part Two Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

5. Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories, Experiences, and Relevance to China

6. How to Understand Income Inequality in China? Seeking Common Ground from the Debates

7. Labor Market Changes, Labor Disputes, and Social Cohesion in China

8. Old Age Support System in China: Situations, Challenges, and Policy Trends

Part Three Supply-side Structural Reform

9. The Hukou Reform and Unification of Rural–Urban Social Welfare

10. From Quantitative Issues to Structural Issues: An Interpretation of China’s Labor Market

11. China’s Demand for Human Capital and Education Reform

12. China’s Agricultural Modernization and Economies of Scale: Barriers and Solutions

13. How Can Chinese Economic Growth Be Transformed to Total-Factor-Productivity-Driven Pattern?

14. The New Normal: The Macro History and Grand Logic of China’s Economic Development