UK Business and Financial Cycles Since 1660 (eBook)
XIX, 242 Seiten
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-030-26346-1 (ISBN)
This book is the first of two volumes that aim to provide an up-to-date overview of the key data and techniques necessary for analysing the historical behaviour of business and financial cycles in the United Kingdom. Drawing on an extensive secondary literature and the considerable body of historical macroeconomic and financial time series data that exist for the United Kingdom, the two volumes will review the key features of historical recessions and recoveries over the course of three and a half centuries.
Volume 1 provides an overview of UK business cycles since 1660. The first part of the book considers old and new theories of the business cycle, looking at the impulses that generate business cycles and the propagation mechanisms that determine their duration and amplitude. The second part of the book uses the latest historical estimates of GDP to look at different ways of measuring and estimating business cycle fluctuations within a simple univariate framework. Finally, the book provides a narrative of UK economic fluctuations since 1660 using a whole range of economic data to shed light on the main drivers of cyclical behaviour. It concludes by highlighting areas for future research especially with regard to the link between business and financial cycles, some of which will be explored in Volume 2.
Nicholas Dimsdale is an Emeritus Fellow in Economics at Queen's College Oxford and an Associate Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford. For many years he taught macroeconomics and monetary economics at both undergraduate and postgraduate level. He has been on the Board of Oxford Economic Papers for many years and has served as a Managing Editor. His main research interests have been in macroeconomic history with a particular interest in the interwar period. He has also written on the pre-1914 period and the postwar economy. He has contributed to the literature in this area in leading journals.
Ryland Thomas is a Senior Technical Advisor in the Monetary Policy Outlook Division of the Bank of England. He has worked at the Bank of England for twenty five years and has covered a number of research and conjunctural roles. More recently he has developed a long-run macroeconomic and financial database for the UK, in order to analyse the historical experience of the UK economy during recessions and to examine the role of money and credit in driving the business cycle.
Acknowledgements 6
Contents 7
List of Figures 8
List of Tables 15
1 Introduction 16
References 20
2 Business, Monetary and Credit Cycles in Theory 21
2.1Business Cycle Definition 22
2.2Impulse and Propagation of Business Cycles 23
2.3Classical Theories of the Business Cycle 26
2.4Classical Monetary and Credit Cycles 29
2.5Modern Theories of the Business Cycle 32
2.5.1The Post-WW2 Keynesian Multiplier-Accelerator View of the Cycle 32
2.5.2Monetarist and New Classical Monetary Cycles 34
2.5.3New Keynesian Business Cycles 37
2.5.4Real Business Cycles 38
2.5.5Financial and Credit Cycles 39
2.6Summary—Impulse, Propagation and Policy Response 42
References 46
3 Statistical and Econometric Analysis of the Cycle 49
3.1Aggregated or Disaggregated Data 49
3.2Classical Versus Growth Cycles—To De-trend or Not to De-trend? 52
3.3Methods of Determining Turning Points in Classic Cycles 54
3.3.1The Graphic or Algorithmic Approach 55
3.3.2The Statistical Approach—Markov-Switching Methods 57
3.4Methods of De-trending—Growth Cycles 58
3.4.1The Unobserved Components Model 59
3.4.2The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition 62
3.4.3HP and Band-Pass Filters—Non-parametric Methods 63
References 65
4 GDP Data for Analysing Business Cycles 68
4.1Background and Method 68
4.2Sources and Construction—Annual Data 1660–2018 70
4.2.11948 Onwards 70
4.2.21920–1948 72
4.2.31870–1920 74
4.2.41660–1870 76
4.3Quarterly and Monthly GDP Estimates 77
4.4Summary of GDP Data 78
References 81
5 Metrics and Turning Points of Cycles 1660–2018 83
5.1Classical Cycle Metrics 83
5.2Growth Cycle Metrics 94
References 105
6 A Narrative History of UK Business Cycles 106
6.1Prologue—The Emerging Market Economy 1660–1720 107
6.1.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 107
6.1.2The Birth of Modern Business Cycles 1660–1720 113
6.2The Long C18th 1720–1830 115
6.2.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 115
6.2.2The Expansion of Empire 1720–1780 121
6.2.3The French Wars and the Restriction Period 1780–1830 126
6.3The Victorian and Edwardian Economy 1830–1913 138
6.3.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 138
6.3.2From Crisis to Crisis 1832–1867 147
6.3.3Industrial Apotheosis, Boom and Slump 1867–1879 153
6.3.4The Mature Industrial Economy 1880–1913 156
6.4The Interwar Economy 1919–1939 160
6.4.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 160
6.4.2WW1 and the 1921 Trough 165
6.4.3The Return to Gold and the Great Depression 1921–1932 168
6.4.4The Recovery of the 1930s 173
6.5The Managed Economy 1945–1973 178
6.5.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 178
6.5.2The After-Effects of WW2 and the “Go-Stop” Cycles in the 1950s and 1960s 186
6.5.3Devaluation and Deflation in the Late 1960s 190
6.6The Liberalised Economy 1971–2018 192
6.6.1Overview—Institutional Factors and Key Drivers 192
6.6.2The Great Inflation and a Search for a Nominal Anchor 1971–1992 201
6.6.3The Great Stability 1992–2007 211
6.6.4Epilogue—The Great Financial Crisis and Recession of 2008 and the Productivity Puzzle 215
References 219
7 Conclusions 229
References 231
Correction to: UK Business and Financial Cycles Since 1660 232
Correction to: N. Dimsdale and R. Thomas, UK Business and Financial Cycles Since 1660, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26346-1 232
References 233
Index 249
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 2.11.2019 |
|---|---|
| Zusatzinfo | XIX, 242 p. 120 illus., 1 illus. in color. |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Themenwelt | Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika |
| Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre | |
| Schlagworte | Bank of England • Business and Financial Cycles • Early business cycles • GDP data • Goods and Financial Markets • Macroeconomic datasets • The Great Financial Crisis and Recession of 2008 • The interwar economy • The Liberalised Economy • The Managed Economy • The Victorian and Edwardian Economy • Time Series Analysis |
| ISBN-10 | 3-030-26346-0 / 3030263460 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-3-030-26346-1 / 9783030263461 |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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