Economic Miracles in the European Economies (eBook)

Magdalena Osińska is a full professor of economics in Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun. She is a widely experienced academic teacher and a recognizable specialist in time series econometrics, financial econometrics and applied econometrics and statistics. Her publications concern different aspects of economic and financial issues, such as testing for causality in economics, risk transfer across financial markets, experimental economics, business cycle analysis as well as econometric modeling of growth. She gained her academic experience in Poland, United Kingdom, Finland, Portugal, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Latvia and other countries. Prof. M. Osińska is the head of PhD studies in economics at NCU in Torun, a member of the Committee of Statistics and Econometrics of Polish Academy of Sciences and the editor in chief of the periodical Statistical Review issued in Poland.

Preface 5
Acknowledgements 10
Contents 11
Contributors 13
Part I: Economic Miracles in Growth Theory and in the Real Economy: An Overview 14
Chapter 1: Economic Miracles: An Introduction 15
1.1 Introduction 15
1.2 Economic Miracle in the Interpretive and Growth Perspectives 16
1.3 Economic Miracles in the Light of Institutional Economics 17
1.4 An Economic Miracle: Metaphysical or Rational? 20
1.5 Summary 21
References 21
Chapter 2: Intense Economic Growth in Economic History and Economic Theory 23
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Economic History 25
2.3 Theory of Economic Growth 33
2.4 Conclusions 41
References 44
Chapter 3: Political Determinants of Government Structure and Economic Performance in Turkey Since 1950 47
3.1 Introduction 47
3.2 Political and Historical Background 48
3.3 Economic Performance Under Various Types of Government 57
3.4 Empirical Results 60
3.5 Summary and Conclusion 67
References 70
Chapter 4: Determinants of Economic Growth in Spain: A Historical Viewpoint 73
4.1 Introduction 73
4.2 Main Features of Spanish Economic Growth Since Integration into the EU 74
4.3 Structural Changes 75
4.3.1 The Export Miracle 76
4.3.2 Rising Immigration 78
4.4 Factors Determining Long-Term Growth 78
4.5 Main Shocks and Macroeconomic Imbalances 83
4.6 Conclusions 88
References 88
Chapter 5: Factors of Economic Growth in Ireland 91
5.1 Introduction 91
5.2 The Dynamics of Economic Growth in Ireland 93
5.3 The Role of State in the Process of Economic Growth of Ireland 95
5.3.1 Stabilization Policy 96
5.3.2 Social Partnership Model 97
5.3.3 Institutional Perspective 98
5.3.4 The Role of European Union Funds 99
5.3.5 IDA Ireland: The Role of State Agency 100
5.4 FDI: The Main Factor of Growth 101
5.4.1 FDI Inflows to Ireland 101
5.4.2 Allocative Structure of FDI 103
5.5 The Role of Trade in Economic Growth in Ireland 104
5.6 Conclusions 106
References 108
Chapter 6: Determinants of Economic Growth in Israel 110
6.1 Introduction 110
6.2 Description of the Israel Economy 113
6.3 Israeli Economic Miracle: A General Picture 115
6.4 Sources of Economic Growth in Israel: Real Sector and Labor Markets 121
6.5 Monetary and Financial Determinants of the Israeli Economic Growth 123
6.6 The Future Challenges for the Israeli Economy 124
6.7 Conclusions 129
References 131
Part II: Statistical Identification and Econometric Modelling of Economic Miracles in Selected Economies 133
Chapter 7: Testing for Structural Breaks in Macroeconomic Processes of Growth 134
7.1 Introduction 134
7.2 Testing for Structural Breaks 135
7.3 Structural Breaks and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis 139
7.3.1 Empirical Application: A Case of Ireland 141
7.3.2 Empirical Application: A Case of Spain 141
7.3.3 Empirical Application: A Case of Turkey 148
7.3.4 Empirical Application: A Case of the Netherlands 153
7.4 Conclusions 155
7.5 Databases 156
References 157
Chapter 8: Threshold Error Correction Model: A Methodological Overview 160
8.1 Introduction 160
8.2 The Idea of Threshold Model Building 162
8.3 Threshold Error Correction Models 164
8.4 Remarks on Estimation Procedures 167
8.5 Statistical Inference in Threshold Models Framework 168
8.5.1 Threshold Models and Structural Changes 169
8.5.2 Testing for Non-linearity in Threshold Models Using Tsay Test 173
8.5.3 Threshold Cointegration Testing: The Hansen-Seo Test 176
8.6 Conclusions 180
References 181
Chapter 9: Econometric Analysis of Economic Miracles in Selected Economies Using TECM Approach 183
9.1 Introduction 183
9.2 Remarks on Model Specifications 186
9.2.1 Theoretical Basis of the Model 186
9.2.2 Threshold Error Correction Model Specification 187
9.3 Data Characteristics and Methodology Outline 190
9.4 Econometric Analysis of Economic Miracles in Selected Economies: Empirical Results 192
9.4.1 Economic Miracle in Ireland in 1980-2016 192
9.4.2 Economic Miracle in Spain in 1980-2015 200
9.4.3 Is Turkey Really Able to Generate an Economic Miracle? 210
9.4.4 Economic miracle in the Netherlands in 1980-2016 221
9.5 The Economic Miracles in Ireland, Spain, Turkey, and the Netherlands: A Summary 230
9.6 Conclusions 234
9.7 Databases 234
References 235
Chapter 10: Economic Miracles in the Light of Imperfect Knowledge Economics 239
10.1 Introduction 240
10.2 Characteristics of Imperfect Knowledge Economics 241
10.3 Economic Miracles in Selected Economies in the Perspective of IKE 245
10.4 IKE and Econometric Models 247
10.5 Interpretation of the Empirical Results from the IKE Perspective 249
10.6 Conclusions 253
References 254