Impact of Aircraft Sourcing & Financing on Financial Success (eBook)

Ralf Günther published his work with Kölner Wissenschaftsverlag until 2018.

Preface 7
Acknowledgement 9
Abstract 10
Table of content 11
Index of figures 13
Index of tables 15
List of abbreviations & symbols
1. Introduction 23
1.1 Research background and motivation 23
1.2 Research aim and objectives 28
1.3 Research questions 29
1.4 Research structure and thesis layout 29
2. Basics of aircraft sourcing and financing 32
2.1 Overview on air capacity alternatives and basic financial structures 32
2.2 Players in the air capacity market 38
2.2.1 Aircraft manufacturers 38
2.2.2 Aircraft operating and holding companies 40
2.3 Fleet Planning 53
3. Development of the air capacity market 57
3.1 Air traffic growth 57
3.2 Air capacity development 1993 to 2000 59
3.3 The aftermath of 9/11 – Crisis and recovery until Q3 2008 60
3.4 Financial Crisis Q4 2008 to Q1 2010 61
3.5 Forecast and industry expert expectations – The need for change in behavior 62
4. Financial performance of airlines and airline holdings 65
4.1 Stock market performance 65
4.2 Key operating figures from the financial statements 70
5. Summary of current situation and link to research topic 74
6. Research hypotheses and scope 76
6.1 Key research hypothesis 76
6.2 Definition of fleet variables and financial performance measures 77
6.2.1 Basic aircraft financing and sourcing characteristics in focus 77
6.2.2 Taking the right perspective – Choosing the right measures & methodology
6.3 Testable hypotheses 80
6.4 Sample – Aircraft operating and holding companies in scope 89
6.5 Summary of analysis scope 93
7. Analysis of fleet planning decisions and financial success 95
7.1 Empirical methodology 95
7.1.1 Multivariate regression model (MVRM) and test statistics 95
7.1.1.1 MVRM with abnormal returns in stock prices 96
7.1.1.2 MVRM with long term avg. revenue growth, EBITDA and EBIT margins 105
7.1.2 Definition of explanatory and control variables 109
7.1.3 Analysis process – Flow of multivariate regressions 119
7.2 Stock performance in times of crises – Analysis of shocks 120
7.2.1 Terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 121
7.2.1.1 September 11, 2001 – Observation periods and course of events 121
7.2.1.2 September 11, 2001 – Alpha, beta, and the shift in risk 126
7.2.1.3 September 11, 2001 – Analysis results: Stock market’s reaction 130
7.2.2 Financial crisis 2008 150
7.2.2.1 Financial Crisis – Observation periods and course of events 150
7.2.2.2 Financial Crisis – Alpha, beta, and the shift in risk 155
7.2.2.3 Financial Crisis – Analysis results: Stock market’s reaction 159
7.2.3 Summary of stock market’s reaction to shocks & crises
7.3 Special events – Company specific positive and negative event days 174
7.3.1 Special events – Observation periods 175
7.3.2 Special events – Alpha, beta, and the shift in risk 185
7.3.3 Special events – Analysis results: Stock market’s reaction 193
7.4 Business cycle 202
7.4.1 Business cycle – Observation period and company sample 203
7.4.2 Business cycle – Analysis results: companies’ long term performance 204
7.5 Summary of success factors for aircraft operating and holding companies 208
8. Discussion of results against hypotheses and literature 212
9. Conclusion and recommendation 219
Literature references 221
Interview references 231
Appendices 232