Analyzing Modern Business Cycles

Philip A. Klein

Charts, Tables, Forewords, Acknowledgments, I. Introduction, 1. Geoffrey H. Moore and His Impact on Modern Business Cycle Research, 2. Plan of the Book, II. Analyzing Business Cycles Today, 3. Understanding Business Cycles Today: A Critical Review of Theory and Fact, III. Current Assessment of Cyclical Indicators, 4. Why Some of the Leading Indicators Lead, 5. Business Cycle Surveys: A New Quality in Economic Statistics, 6. The Leading Indicators and Monetary Aggregates, 7. Cyclical Indicators in Econometric Models, IV. The Usefulness of Indicators in Economic Forecasting, 8. Forecasting Turning Points in the Stock Market Cycle and Asset Allocation Implications, 9. The Future Lies Ahead, 10. The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts, V. Cyclical Indicators and Their Applications: Current Methodological Issues, 11. Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 12. A Reassessment of Composite Indexes, 13. Long-Leading Index, 1919-1988, VI. Recent Business Cycle Research: Implications for Theory and Policy, 14. The Long-Run Efficacy of Efforts to Mitigate Downturns, 15. Diminished Unit Labor Cost Pressures: Importance for Methuselah Expansion, 16. The 1987 Stock Market Crash and the Wealth Effect, 17. Entrepreneurial Confidence and Money Illusion, 18. Cyclical Effects of International Transmission of Real and Monetary Disturbances, 19. What’s Natural About Unemployment?, Index, About the Contributors