Econometric Modelling

List of contributors; 1. Introduction Sean Holly and Martin Weale; 2. Economic forecasting in the face of structural breaks David F. Hendry and Michael P. Clements; 3. The Treasury's forecasts of GDP and the RPI: how have they changed and what are the uncertainties? Chris Melliss and Rod Whittaker; 4. General equilibrium modelling of UK tax policy Keshab Bhattarai and John Whalley; 5. A structural cointegrating VAR approach to macroeconometric modelling Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee, M. Hashem Pesaran and Yongcheol Shin; 6. Unemployment, the natural rate and structural change Jennifer V. Greenslade, Stephen G. Hall, J. Nixon, S. G. Brian Henry and James Nixon; 7. Macroeconomic models at the Bank of England Paul Fisher and John Whitley; 8. Estimated stabilisation costs of the EMU Ray C. Fair; 9. Optimal monetary policy Andrew P. Blake, Martin Weale and Garry Young; 10. How tough should monetary policy be if inflation is forward looking? Campbell B. Leith and Simon Wren-Lewis; 11. Technical progress and the natural rate in models of the UK economy Keith B. Church, Peter R. Mitchell, Joanne E. Sault and Kenneth F. Wallis; 12. The conduct of monetary policy when the business cycle is non-linear Steven Cook, Sean Holly and Paul Turner.