Will China's Rise Be Peaceful?

Asle Toje (b. 1974) is the Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. Toje's research interests are found at the intersection of security studies and European studies. Since Toje graduated from Cambridge University in 2006, Toje has published widely on European security and international politics. Among his last works are America, the EU and Strategic Culture (London, Routledge); The European Union as a Small Power (London, Macmillan, 2010) and Neoclassical realism in Europe (Manchester University Press, 2012). He has also authored a trilogy in Norwegian on the economic and political crisis in Europe: Red, White & Blue, The Iron Cage & Culture War (Dreyer 2012, 2014, 2017)

Contents
Security, Stability and Legitimacy 1

Abstracts in (chronological order) 7

Biographies (in alphabetical order) 18

Asle Toje: Introduction 22
Key dimensions 26
Security, Stability and Legitimacy 30
Structure 31

Stephen M. Walt: Rising Powers and the Risks of War: A Realist View of Sino-American Relations 33
Introduction 33
I. The Balance of Power and the Risks of War 36
II. The Historical Record 47
III. China's Rise and the Future of Conflict in Asia 53
IV. CONCLUSION 64

G. John Ikenberry: A New Order of Things? China, America, and the Struggle over World Order 68
Introduction 68
Rising States and Power Transitions 72
Rising States and Liberal International Order 77
The Geopolitics of Sino-American Rivalry 83
China and the World of Democracies 88
Conclusions 95

William C. Wohlforth: Not Quite the Same as it Ever was: Power Shifts and Contestation Over the American-Led World Order. 98
No (Hegemonic) War and Change in World Politics 101
Power Shift, Not Power Transition 111
Institutions and Strategic Incentives 118
Conclusion 124

Rosemary Foot: Restraints on Conflict in the China-US relationship: Contesting Power Transition Theory. 127
Introduction 127
Power Transition Theory 129
The Return of Thucydides 135
Regional State Preferences and the Shaping of Regional Order 140
Economic Interdependence and Globalized Production Processes 145
Domestic Economic and Political Priorities 150
Conclusion 152

Historical perspectives 154
Geir Lundestad: Rise and Fall of Great Powers - the uses of history. 154
Introduction 154
Realism and the rise of China 155
Rise, decline and war 158
The United States, China and cooperation 162
Interdependence and war 166
The US still far ahead 169
Conclusion 174

Christopher Layne: The Sound of Distant Thunder: The Pre-World War I Anglo-German Rivalry as a Model for Sino-American Relations in the Early 21st Century 179
Introduction: 179
The uses of theory 182
The return of power politics 184
The difficulties of rising peacefully 186
Bilateral power rivalries 189
The United States and stability 194
The Carr Moment 197
After Pax Americana 200

Odd Arne Westad: The Weight of the Past in China's Relations with Its Asian Neighbors 203
Introduction 203
The United States and China's Relations with Its Neighbors 204
China and the Korean Question 207
The troublesome ally 211
China and the Challenge of Southeast Asian Integration 215
The promise of ASEAN 220
Conclusion 221

Domestic dimensions 224
Minxin Pei: The Rise and Fall of the China Model: Implications for World Peace 224
Introduction 224
Chinese Economic Growth 228
Patronage and Co-optation 236
Selective Repression 241
Manipulation of Nationalism 245
Concluding Thoughts 249

Johan Lagerkvist: Curtailing China's rise before the Real Take-Off? Censorship, Social Protests, and Political Legitimacy 252
Introduction 252
Tightening online censorship 259
Climate of compliance 261
Revisiting the Principal-Agent Dilemma 268
Social protests in rural areas: The Wukan incident 270
Wukan villagers' effective media strategy 273
Conclusions and implications 277

Domestic politics- international policies 283
David Shambaugh: Is China a Global Power? 283
Introduction 283
China's Diplomatic Power 289
China's Military Power 292
China's Search for Soft Power 295
China's Economic Power 298
Still a Developing Country 302
Conclusion & Outlook 304

Zhang Ruizhuang: Despite the "New Assertiveness", China Is Not Up for Challenging the Global Order 309
Introduction: Is The Wolf Really Coming This Time? 309
The China Model 310
National Power: The Key Determinant 314
The challenge of domestic stability 317
Changing the World Order from Within 319
Conclusion 324

China and its rivals 348
Liselotte Odgaard: Coexistence in China's Regional and Global Maritime Security Strategies: Revisionism by Defensive Means 348
Introduction 348
Coexistence and legitimacy in international political change 351
The Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute: Coexistence and regional security issues 354
Anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden 360
Concluding remarks 365

Yoshihide Soeya : The Rise of China in Asia: Japan at the Nexus 370
Introduction 370
The Rise of China in Global and Asian Contexts 372
The Origin of the History Problem 377
China Policy of a "Normal" Japan 381
Conclusion 389

Jonathan Holslag: Can India Balance China in Asia? 392
Introduction 392
The Causes of Discord 393
Military Balancing 400
"Diplomatic balancing" 406
Economic competition 408
Conclusion 413

Michael Cox: Axis of Opposition: China, Russia and the West 414
Introduction 415
United by history 423
China and Russia - international cooperation 432
Conclusion: China , Russia, Ukraine and Beyond 438

Steven E. Lobell: How Should America respond to China's Military Rise? 442
Increasing Sino-American Competition 448
Offshore Balancing versus Deep Engagement Strategies 450
New Model of Realist Major Power Relations 454
Disaggregate Power 455
Appropriate Elements of Power Rather than Aggregate Capabilities 458
Targeted Balancing 459
Conclusion 460