Controlling the Growth of Monetary Aggregates

1 Introduction.- Alternative Approaches to Money Stock Control.- Money Multiplier Forecasting.- Goals and Organization.- Summary of Results and Conclusions.- 2 The Money Multiplier Framework.- Derivation of Pre-1980 Money Multipliers.- Derivation of Post-1980 Money Multipliers.- Inclusion of Non-Bank Travelers Checks in Monetary Aggregates.- The Reserve Components in the Monetary Base Multipliers vs. the Reserve Multipliers.- 3 Initial Forecasting Models for the Old Money Stock Multipliers.- Modeling the Money Multiplier Components.- Estimation.- Model Stability.- Relationship of ARIMA Multiplier Models to Econometric Literature.- Sample Period Errors.- Seasonal Adjustment.- Conclusions.- 4 Evolution and Robustness of the Forecasting Models During a Period of Financial Innovation and Deregulation: 1977–1983.- Adjustments for the Introduction of Automatic Transfer Accounts (ATS).- Adjustments of the Forecasting Models for the.- Redefinitions of the Monetary Aggregates.- Reconstruction of the Reserve Adjustment Magnitude.- Inclusion of Non-bank Travelers Checks in the Monetary Aggregates.- NOW Account Shifts.- Impact of All-Savers Certificates and Money Market Deposit Accounts (MMDAs).- 5 Monetary Control: The Implementation Experience.- Monetary Policy in Retrospect.- Analysis of the Component Ratio Forecast Errors, 1977–1982.- Analysis of the Component Ratio Forecast Errors, 1982–1985.- Analysis of Multiplier Forecast Errors.- An Alternative Short-run Targeting Procedure.- Appendix 5A Estimating the Accuracy of an Aggregate Control Procedure for Short-run Targeting of Monetary Aggregates.- 6 The Precision of Monetary Control.- Endogeneity, Exogeneity, and Reentry Rates.- Analysis of Component Errors.- Error Forecasts for Multipliers.- Alternative Specification ofthe Multiplier.- Conclusions.- Appendix 6A Partial Derivatives of the Monetary Base Multiplier.- 7 Consistent Target Ranges for Several Monetary Aggregates.- Reestimation of Multiplier Component Forecasting Models.- Conclusions.- 8 Conclusions.- References.- Appendix: Computer Programs for Estimation and Forecasting of Multipliers and Component Ratios.- Name Index.