Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector

In diesem Werk wird in großer methodischer Breite ein Konzept entwickelt, das Elemente der energiewirtschaftlichen Modellierung und der Innovationsökonomik miteinander verknüpft, um die Abnahme des technologischen Wissens im Rahmen von langfristigen Energieszenarien zu berücksichtigen.

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This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time and the resulting limitations of techno-economic energy demand models in anticipating future demand for energy in the long-term. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. The study is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the concept developed to a practical question - energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 - shows that integrating the decline in technological knowledge into answering it leads to interesting new insights.