The Chinese Economy in the Twenty-First Century - an Econometric Approach

This text includes an overview of the Chinese economic reform, which commenced in 1979, identifying the factors responsible for its success. Alternative scenarios for the development of the Chinese economy in the 21st century are also presented and interpreted.

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This book begins with an overview of the Chinese economic reform which commenced in 1979 identifying the factors responsible for its great success. Then, on the basis of the annual econometric model encompassing those factors which was constructed, alternative scenarios - reflecting Chinese policy options and external conditions in the rest of the world - for the development of the Chinese economy in the 21st century are presented and interpreted. In particular, the book attempts to highlight the role of economic reform, the advantage of high savings rates, the importance of the "open door" policy, the impact of demographic development, and the pivotal nature of the "transportation option". The author draws on his almost thirty years of experience in modelling the economy of China and more than fifteen years of experience in advising the Chinese economic policy makers.