Communicating in Risk, Crisis, and High Stress Situations: Evidence-Based Strategies and Practice

VINCENT T. COVELLO, PhD, is a leading expert in risk, crisis, and high stress communications. He is currently Director of the Center for Risk Communication in New York City, an organization that applies evidence-based knowledge to a wide range of high concern, high stakes situations. He has served as a senior adviser to the World Health Organization, the US Department of Health and Human Services, the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US Department of Agriculture, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other national and international organizations. Over the past 40 years, Dr. Covello has published more than 150 scientific articles on risk, crisis, and high stress communications.

A Note from the Series Editor xiii

Acknowledgments xv

Author Biography xvii

1 The Critical Role of Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 1

1.1 Case Diary: A Collision of Facts and Perceptions 2

1.2 What Will Readers Find in This Book? 3

1.3 Why You Will Use This Book 4

1.4 The Need for This Book – Now 5

1.4.1 New Literature, New Research 5

1.4.2 Changes in the Communications Landscape 6

1.4.3 Changes in Journalism and the Perception of Facts 7

1.4.4 Changes in Laws, Regulations, and Societal Expectations 7

1.4.5 Changes in Concerns about Health, Safety, and the Environment 7

1.4.6 Changes in Levels of Trust 7

1.4.7 Changes in the Global Political Environment 8

1.4.8 The COVID- 19 Pandemic and the Changed Communication Landscape 8

2 Core Concepts 11

2.1 Case Diary: Recognizing Change as a High Concern Issue 11

2.2 Defining the Concept and Term Risk 13

2.3 Defining the Concept and Term Risk Communication 14

2.4 Risk Communication and Its Relationship to Risk Analysis 17

2.5 Defining the Concepts and Terms High Concern and High Concern Communication 19

2.6 Defining the Concept and Term Crisis 22

2.7 Defining the Concept and Term Crisis Communication 24

2.8 Chapter Resources 25

Endnotes 31

3 An Overview of Risk Communication 33

3.1 Case Diary: Complex Issues Destroy Homes 33

3.2 Challenges and Difficulties Faced in Communicating Risk Information 35

3.2.1 Characteristics and Limitations of Scientific and Technical Data about Risks 35

3.2.2 Characteristics and Limitations of Spokespersons in Communicating Information about Risks 35

3.2.2.1 Case Study: “Go Hard, Go Early”: Risk Communication Lessons from New Zealand’s Response to COVID-19 37

3.2.3 Characteristics and Limitations of Risk Management Regulations and Standards 41

3.2.3.1 Debates and Disagreements 41

3.2.3.2 Limited Resources for Risk Assessment and Management 41

3.2.3.3 Underestimating the Difficulty of and Need for Risk Communication 42

3.2.3.4 Lack of Coordination and Collaboration 42

3.2.4 Characteristics and Limitations of Traditional Media Channels in Communicating Information about Risks 42

3.2.5 Characteristics and Limitations of Social Media Channels in Communicating Information about Risks 43

3.2.6 Characteristics and Limitations of People in their Ability to Evaluate and Interpret Risk Information 44

3.3 Changes in How the Brain Processes Information Under Conditions of High Stress 48

3.4 Risk Communication Theory 49

3.4.1 Trust Determination Theory 49

3.4.2 Negative Dominance Theory 50

3.4.3 Mental Noise Theory 50

3.4.4 Risk Perception Theory 50

3.5 Risk Communication Principles and Guidelines 55

3.5.1 Principle 1. Accept and Involve All Interested and Affected Persons as Legitimate Partners 55

3.5.2 Principle 2. Plan Carefully and Evaluate Performance 55

3.5.3 Principle 3. Listen to Your Audience 57

3.5.4 Principle 4. Be Honest, Frank, and Open 57

3.5.5 Principle 5. Coordinate and Collaborate with Other Credible Sources 58

3.5.6 Principle 6. Meet the Needs of Traditional and Social Media 58

3.5.7 Principle 7. Speak Clearly and with Compassion 58

3.6 Key Takeaway Concepts and Conclusions from this Overview Chapter 59

3.7 Chapter Resources 59

Endnotes 66

4 Development of Risk Communication Theory and Practice 69

4.1 Case Diary: Origin Story 69

4.2 Introduction 70

4.2.1 Historical Phase 1: Presenting Risk Numbers 71

4.2.2 Historical Phase 2: Listening and Planning 71

4.2.3 Historical Phase 3: Stakeholder Engagement 72

4.2.4 Covello and Sandman’s Four Stages of Risk Communication 72

4.2.4.1 Stage 1: Ignore the Public 73

4.2.4.2 Stage 2: Explaining Risk Data Better 73

4.2.4.3 Stage 3: Stakeholder Engagement 77

4.2.4.4 Stage 4: Empowerment 78

4.3 Summary 79

4.4 Chapter Resources 79

Endnotes 83

5 Stakeholder Engagement and Empowerment 87

5.1 Case Diary: A Town Hall Public Meeting Goes Very Wrong 87

5.2 Introduction 89

5.3 Levels of Stakeholder Engagement 91

5.3.1 Types of Stakeholder Engagement 93

5.4 Benefits of Stakeholder Engagement 95

5.5 Limitations and Challenges of Stakeholder Engagement 96

5.6 Techniques and Approaches for Effective Stakeholder Engagement 97

5.7 Meetings with Stakeholders 100

5.7.1 Town Hall Meetings 101

5.7.2 Open House Meetings/Information Workshops 102

5.7.3 Tips for Meetings with Stakeholders 102

5.8 Chapter Resources 104

Endnotes 107

6 Communicating in a Crisis 111

6.1 Case Diary: The Challenge of Partnership in a Crisis 112

6.2 The Three Phases of a Crisis 113

6.3 Communication in the Precrisis Preparedness Phase 115

6.3.1 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identifying Potential Crises 117

6.3.2 Case Study: The 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 118

6.3.3 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identify Goals and Objectives 120

6.3.4 Precrisis Communication Activity: Develop a Crisis Communication Plan 121

6.3.5 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identify, Train, and Test Crisis Communication Spokespersons 124

6.3.6 Precrisis Communication Activity: Engaging Stakeholders 124

6.3.7 Precrisis Communication Activity: Identifying Stakeholders’ Questions and Concerns 126

6.3.8 Drafting Messages for Anticipated Stakeholder Questions and Concerns 126

6.3.9 Precrisis Communication Activity: Conducting Exercises to Test the Crisis Communication Plan 128

6.3.10 Precrisis Communication Activity: Incident Command System (ICS) and the Joint Information Center (JIC) 129

6.4 Communications in the Crisis Response Phase 130

6.4.1 Case Study: Lac-Mégantic Rail Tragedy 134

6.4.2 Disaster and Emergency Warnings 136

6.4.2.1 Designing Effective Warnings 137

6.4.2.2 Steps in the Disaster and Emergency Warning Process 137

6.5 Communicating Effectively about Blame, Accountability, and Responsibility 139

6.6 Communicating an Apology 140

6.6.1 Case Study: Maple Leaf Foods and the Listeria Food Contamination Crisis 141

6.6.2 Case Study: Southwest Airlines Apology 144

6.7 Communications in the Postcrisis Recovery Phase 145

6.7.1 Case Study and Case Diary: New York City’s Communication Trials by Fire, from West Nile to 9/11 146

6.7.2 Case Study: Johnson & Johnson and the Tylenol Tampering Case 147

6.7.3 Case Study: Flint, Michigan and Contaminated Drinking Water 149

6.8 Chapter Resources 151

Endnotes 159

7 Foundational Principles: Perceptions, Biases, and Information Filters 165

7.1 Case Diary: “A” Is for “Apples” 165

7.2 Message Perception and Reception in High Concern Situations 168

7.3 Message Filter Theory: A Set of Principles Drawn from the Behavioral and Neuroscience Literature 169

7.4 Case Study: COVID- 19 and Risk Perception Factors 171

7.4.1 Social Amplification Filters 173

7.4.2 Mental Shortcut Filters 174

7.4.3 Knowledge and Belief Filters 176

7.4.4 Personality Filters 177

7.4.5 Negative Dominance/Loss Aversion Filters 177

7.5 Message Filters and the Brain 179

7.6 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Models of Human Behavior 179

7.7 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Persuasion 180

7.8 Message Filters, Perceptions, and Ethics 181

7.9 Message Filters and the Issue of Acceptable Risk 182

7.9.1 Factors in Determining Acceptable Risk 183

7.9.2 Strategies for Addressing Acceptable Risk 184

7.10 The Message is in the Mind of the Receiver 186

7.11 Chapter Resources 186

Endnotes 192

8 Foundational Principles: Trust, Culture, and Worldviews 197

8.1 Case Diary: A Disease Outbreak in Africa 198

8.2 Trust Determination 200

8.3 Characteristics and Attributes of Trust 201

8.3.1 Trust and First Impressions 203

8.3.2 Loss of Trust 204

8.3.3 Gaining Trust 206

8.3.3.1 Gaining Trust through Stakeholder Engagement 206

8.3.3.2 Gaining Trust through Trust Transference 206

8.3.3.3 Gaining Trust through Actions and Behavior 207

8.4 Case Study: Trust and the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident 207

8.5 Case Diary: The Fukushima Japan Nuclear Power Plant Accident 208

8.6 Gaining Trust in High- Stakes Negotiations 210

8.7 Case Diary: Gaining Trust and the SARS Outbreak in Hong Kong 211

8.8 Trust and Culture 212

8.9 Cultural Competency 212

8.9.1 Different Communication Styles 213

8.9.2 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Conflict 214

8.9.3 Different Nonverbal Communication 214

8.9.4 Different Attitudes and Approaches to Decision Making 214

8.9.5 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Information Disclosure 215

8.9.6 Different Attitudes and Approaches to Knowing 215

8.9.7 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward Conversation and Discourse 215

8.9.8 Different Attitudes and Approaches toward the Use of Humor 215

8.10 Risk Perceptions, Trust, and Cultural Theory 215

8.11 Risk Perceptions, Trust, and Worldviews 217

8.12 Case Diary: Fame, Family, and Fear in Public Health Communications 218

8.13 Chapter Resources 221

Endnotes 227

9 Best Practices for Message Development in High Concern Situations 231

9.1 Case Diary: Mapping Through a Maze of COVID Confusion 231

9.2 Introduction 232

9.3 Crafting Messages in the Context of Stress and High Concern Decision- Making 233

9.3.1 Trust Determination and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 233

9.3.1.1 The CCO Best Practice 233

9.3.2 Impaired Comprehension and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 234

9.3.3 Negative Dominance and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 234

9.3.4 Emotional Impact and Messaging in High-Stress Situations 235

9.3.4.1 Case Study: Hoarding Toilet Paper at the Outset of the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic 236

9.4 Message Mapping 238

9.4.1 Benefits of Message Maps 238

9.4.2 Message Maps and the Brain 241

9.4.3 The Development of Message Mapping 243

9.4.4 Case Study: Message Maps and Asbestos 244

9.4.5 Steps in Developing a Message Map 245

9.4.5.1 Step 1: Identify, Profile, and Prioritize Key Stakeholders 245

9.4.5.2 Step 2: Develop Lists of Stakeholder Questions and Concerns 248

9.4.5.3 Case Study: Stakeholder Questions, Terrorism, and Disasters 249

9.4.5.4 Step 3: Develop Key Messages 249

9.4.5.5 Step 4: Develop Supporting Information 252

9.4.5.6 Step 5: Testing the Message Map 253

9.4.5.7 Step 6: Repurpose Maps through Appropriate Information Channels 254

9.5 Summary 254

9.6 Chapter Resources 255

Endnotes 263

Appendices 265

Appendix 9.1 265

Appendix 9.2 267

Appendix 9.3 277

Appendix 9.4 280

10 Communicating Numbers, Statistics, and Technical Information about a Risk or Threat 285

10.1 Case Diary: A Civil Action 285

10.2 Introduction 288

10.3 Case Study: Numbers, Statistics, and COVID-19 289

10.4 Brain Processes That Filter How Technical Information about Risk or Threat Is Received and Understood 292

10.4.1 Risk and Threat Perception Filters 293

10.4.2 Thought Processing Filters 294

10.4.3 Mental Model Filters 294

10.4.4 Emotional Filters 295

10.4.5 Motivational Filters 295

10.5 Challenges in Explaining Technical Information About a Risk or Threat 296

10.6 Framing 297

10.7 Technical Jargon 298

10.8 Information Clarity 299

10.9 Units of Measurement 300

10.10 Case Study: Risk Numbers, Risk Statistics, and the Challenger Accident 303

10.11 Comparisons 304

10.12 Lessons Learned 308

10.13 Chapter Resources 308

Endnotes 315

11 Evaluating Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communications 321

11.1 Case Diary: Finding the Road to Rio 321

11.1.1 The Mosquito Front 322

11.1.2 The Citizen Front 322

11.1.3 The Olympic Athlete and Visitor Front 323

11.1.4 Communication Strategy: The Citizen Front 323

11.1.5 Communication Strategy: Olympic Athlete and Visitor Front 323

11.2 Introduction 324

11.3 Benefits of Evaluation 326

11.4 Evaluation Practices for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 327

11.5 Case Studies of Evaluation Comparison to Best Practice: Hurricane Katrina, COVID-19

and Vaccination Hesitancy, and Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China 329

11.5.1 Hurricane Katrina 329

11.5.2 COVID-19 and Vaccination Hesitancy 330

11.5.3 Outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China 330

11.6 Barriers and Challenges to Evaluation 332

11.6.1 Differences in Values 332

11.6.2 Differences in Goals 332

11.6.3 Competition for Resources 332

11.6.4 Ability to Learn from Results 333

11.7 Evaluation Measures 338

11.7.1 Process/Implementation Evaluation Measures 338

11.7.2 Outcome/Impact Evaluation Measures 339

11.7.3 Formative Evaluation Measures 340

11.8 An Integrated Approach to Evaluation 341

11.9 Resource: Case Study of Focus Group Testing of Mosquito-Control Messages, Florida, 2018–2019 342

11.10 Evaluation Tools 347

11.11 Chapter Resources 348

Endnotes 353

12 Communicating with Mainstream News Media 357

12.1 Case Diary: A High Stakes Chess Game with a News Media Outlet 357

12.2 Introduction 359

12.3 Characteristics of the Mainstream News Media 361

12.3.1 Content 361

12.3.2 Clarity 362

12.3.3 Avoiding Prejudice 362

12.3.4 Topicality 362

12.3.5 Diversity 363

12.3.6 Subject Matter Expertise 363

12.3.7 Resources 363

12.3.8 Career Advancement 364

12.3.9 Watchdogs 364

12.3.10 Amplifiers 364

12.3.11 Skepticism 364

12.3.12 Source Dependency 365

12.3.13 Professionalism and Independence 365

12.3.14 Covering Uncertainty 366

12.3.15 Legal Constraints 366

12.3.16 Special Populations 366

12.3.17 Competition 366

12.3.18 Confidentiality and Protection of Sources 367

12.3.19 Deadlines 367

12.3.20 Trust 367

12.3.21 Storytelling 368

12.3.22 Balance and Controversy 368

12.4 Guidelines and Best Practices for Interacting with Mainstream News Media 368

12.5 The Media Interview 370

12.6 Lessons and Trends 375

12.7 Case Diary: A Ten-Round Exercise 377

12.8 Chapter Resources 378

Endnotes 381

13 Social Media and the Changing Landscape for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 385

13.1 Case Diary: Myth-Busting: Mission Impossible? 385

13.2 Introduction 387

13.3 Benefits of Social Media Outlets for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 389

13.3.1 Speed 389

13.3.2 Access 390

13.3.3 Reach 390

13.3.4 Amplification 390

13.3.5 Transparency 390

13.3.6 Understanding 390

13.3.7 Changes in Behaviors 391

13.3.8 Relationship Building 391

13.3.9 Timeliness 391

13.3.10 Hyperlocal Specificity 391

13.3.11 Listening and Feedback 392

13.3.12 Taking Advantage of the Benefits of Social Media 392

13.4 Challenges of Social Media for Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Communication 393

13.4.1 Rising Expectations 393

13.4.2 Repostings/Redistribution 393

13.4.3 Permanent Storage 394

13.4.4 Hacking/Security 394

13.4.5 Rise and Fall of Social Media Platforms 394

13.4.6 Resources 394

13.4.7 Privacy and Confidentiality 394

13.4.8 Cognitive Overload 395

13.4.9 Players on the Field 395

13.4.10 Misinformation, Disinformation, and Rumors 395

13.5 Case Study: Social Media and the 2007 and 2011 Shooter Incidents at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) 397

13.6 Case Study: Social Media and the 2013 Southern Alberta/Calgary Flood 398

13.7 Best Practices for Using Social Media in Risk, High Concern, and Crisis Situations 400

13.7.1 Create a Social Media Plan 400

13.7.2 Staff Appropriately for Social Media Communication 400

13.7.3 Ensure Continuous Updating 401

13.7.4 Identify Your Partners 401

13.7.5 Assess and Reassess Your Selection of Platforms 401

13.7.6 Create and Maintain as Many Social Media Accounts as You and Your Stakeholders Need 401

13.7.7 Be Prepared for the Special Social Media Requirements and Pressures in a Crisis 401

13.7.8 Provide Guidance for Employees and Engage Them in the Process 402

13.7.9 Don’t Skip Evaluation 403

13.8 Case Diary: Social Media and the Negative Power of“Junk”Information about Risks and Threats 403

13.9 Lessons Learned and Trends 404

13.10 Chapter Resources 404

Endnotes 408

Index 411