Country and Political Risk

Sam Wilkin is Senior Advisor, Political Risk to Oxford Analytica and Senior Advisor, Business Research to Oxford Economics. Oxford Economics, founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University's Templeton College, is one of the world's foremost economic forecasting and research consultancies. Oxford Analytica, founded in 1975, is a leading geopolitical analysis and strategic advisory firm. Sam previously served as head of business research at Oxford Economics, deputy director of the consultancy practice at Oxford Analytica, head of US political risk consulting for Aon Trade Credit, and director of country analysis for Marvin Zonis & Associates. Sam studied economics at Eckerd College and received his MA in international relations from the University of Chicago. He is co-author of Risk Rules: How Local Politics Threaten the Global Economy (Agate B2, 2011), and the editor of the first edition of Country and Political Risk (Risk Books, 2004). He is the author of numerous articles on political risk and economic development, including "Can Bad Governance Be Good for Development?" in Survival, the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He was the 2004 alumni fellow for Eckerd College. He currently divides his time between New York and Oxford.

Introduction Sam Wilkin (Oxford Analytica and Oxford Economics) Section I: Assessing Country Risk 1. Assessing Country Risk: A Practical Guide Pascaline della Faille (Delcredere | Ducroire) 2.Sovereign Risk: Characteristics, History and a Review of Recent Research Christian Friedrich Buschmann (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management) 3. The Arab Spring: Insights for Political Risk Analysis Therese Feng (Jefferies and Company) 4. The Eurozone Crisis: The Forgotten Risks of Private and External Debt Greetje Frankena, Daan Willebrands, John Lorie and Daniel Bosgraaf (Atradius Credit Insurance) 5. How the Eurozone Crisis Became a Banking Crisis, and the Risk of Japanization Katsura Daikuhara (Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Europe) Section II: New Country Risk Issues and Indicators 6. The Changing Dynamics of Country Risk Max Schieler (UBS) 7. Capital Flight as a Political Risk Indicator Michel-Henry Bouchet (Skema Business School) 8. Debt Crisis Indicators of Emerging Markets vs. Eurozone Economies Roberto Savona (University of Brescia), Marika Vezzoli (University of Brescia) and Enrico Ciavolino (University of Salento) Section III: Improving Country Risk Management 9. How Much Economic Capital Could European Banks Save? The Case for Optimal Sovereign Risk Allocation Carlo Capuano (Intesa Sanpaolo Bank) and Luigi Ruggerone 10. Fixing Fundamental Flaws in Probabilistic Country Risk Models Bertrand Groslambert (SKEMA Business School) 11. Have We Learned the Country Risk Management Lessons of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis? Christine Shields (Shields Economics) 12. Using Systems Thinking to Enhance Country Risk Assessment Victoire de Groote and Seth Aslin (HSBC) 13. Approaches to Quantification of Country Risk Paul Domjan (Roubini Global Economics) 14. Stress Testing Across International Exposures and Activities Robert Scavotto and Robert Skinkle (Office of the Comptroller of Currency)