Engineering Risk Management (eBook)

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Thierry Meyer, Ecole Polytechnique Fédéralede Lausanne, Switzerland; Genserik Reniers, University ofAntwerp, Belgium.

1 Risk management is not only a matter of financial risk 13
References 18
2 Introduction to engineering and managing risks 19
2.1 Managing risks and uncertainties - an introduction 19
2.2 The complexity of risks and uncertainties 22
2.3 Hazards and risks 26
2.4 Simplified interpretation of (negative) risk 28
2.5 Hazard and risk mapping 31
2.6 Risk perception and risk attitude 33
2.7 ERM - main steps 35
2.8 Objectives and importance of ERM 41
2.9 Conclusions 42
References 42
3 Risk management principles 45
3.1 Introduction to risk management 45
3.2 Integrated risk management 47
3.3 Risk management models 49
3.3.1 Model of the accident pyramid 49
3.3.2 The P2T model 50
3.3.3 The Swiss cheese model and the domino theory 51
3.4 The anatomy of an accident: SIFs and SILs 53
3.5 Individual risk, societal risk, physical description of risk 60
3.5.1 Individual risk 60
3.5.2 Societal risk 61
3.5.3 Physical description of risk 64
3.5.3.1 Static model of an accident 66
3.5.3.2 Dynamic model of an accident 66
3.6 Safety culture and safety climate 68
3.6.1 Organizational culture and climate 68
3.6.2 Safety culture models 69
3.6.3 The P2T model revisited and applied to safety and security culture and climate 72
3.7 Strategic management concerning risks and continuous improvement 74
3.8 The IDEAL S& S model
3.8.1 Performance indicators 81
3.9 Continuous improvement of organizational culture 85
3.10 High reliability organizations and systemic risks 87
3.10.1 Systems thinking 87
3.10.1.1 Reaction time or retardant effect 87
3.10.1.2 Law of communicating vessels 87
3.10.1.3 Non-linear causalities 88
3.10.1.4 Long-term vision 88
3.10.1.5 Systems thinking conclusions 88
3.10.2 Normal accident theory (NAT) and high reliability theory (HRT) 88
3.10.3 High reliability organization (HRO) principles 91
3.10.3.1 HRO principle 1: targeted at disturbances 91
3.10.3.2 HRO principle 2: reluctant for simplification 91
3.10.3.3 HRO principle 3: sensitive towards implementation 92
3.10.3.4 HRO principle 4: devoted to resiliency 92
3.10.3.5 HRO principle 5: respectful for expertise 92
3.10.4 Risk and reliability 93
3.11 Accident reporting 94
3.12 Conclusions 95
References 96
4 Risk diagnostic and analysis 99
4.1 Introduction to risk assessment techniques 99
4.1.1 Inductive and deductive approaches 100
4.1.2 General methods for risk analysis 101
4.1.3 General procedure 106
4.1.4 General process for all analysis techniques 108
4.2 SWOT 110
4.3 Preliminary hazard analysis 113
4.4 Checklis 115
4.4.1 Methodology 115
4.4.2 Example 116
4.4.2.1 Step 1a: Critical difference, effect of energies failures 116
4.4.2.2 Step 1b: Critical difference, deviation from the operating procedure 117
4.4.2.3 Step 2: Establish the risk catalogue 117
4.4.2.4 Step 3: risk mitigation 118
4.4.3 Conclusion 118
4.5 HAZOP 119
4.5.1 HAZOP inputs and outputs 120
4.5.2 HAZOP process 120
4.5.3 Example 123
4.5.4 Conclusions 124
4.6 FMECA 126
4.6.1 FMECA inputs and outputs 127
4.6.2 FMECA process 127
4.6.2.1 Step 1: Elaboration of the hierarchical model, functional analysis 128
4.6.2.2 Step 2: Failure mode determination 129
4.6.2.3 Step 3: The criticality determination 131
4.6.3 Example 131
4.6.4 Conclusions 134
4.7 Fault tree analysis and event tree analysis 135
4.7.1 Fault tree analysis 135
4.7.2 Event tree analysis 138
4.7.3 Cause-consequence-analysis (CCA): a combination of FTA and ETA 139
4.8 The risk matrix 142
4.9 Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) 147
4.10 Layer of protection analysis 150
4.11 Bayesian networks 152
4.12 Conclusion 156
References 157
5 Risk treatment/reduction 159
5.1 Introduction 159
5.2 Prevention 162
5.2.1 Seveso Directive as prevention mean for chemical plants 163
5.2.2 Seveso company tiers 167
5.3 Protection and mitigation 168
5.4 Risk treatment 171
5.5 Risk control 175
5.6 STOP principle 178
5.7 Conclusion 182
References 182
6 Event analysis 185
6.1 Traditional analytical techniques 186
6.1.1 Sequence of events 186
6.1.2 Multilinear events sequencing 187
6.1.3 Root cause analysis 187
6.2 Causal tree analysis 189
6.2.1 Method description 189
6.2.2 Collecting facts 190
6.2.3 Building the tree 193
6.2.4 Example 195
6.2.5 Building an action plan 196
6.2.6 Implementing solutions and follow-up 197
6.3 Conclusions 197
References 198
7 Crisis management 199
7.1 Introduction 200
7.2 The steps of crisis management 202
7.2.1 What to do when a disruption occurs 203
7.2.2 Business continuity plan 205
7.3 Crisis evolution 207
7.3.1 The pre-crisis stage or creeping crisis 208
7.3.2 The acute-crisis stage 208
7.3.3 The post-crisis stage 208
7.3.4 Illustrative example of a crisis evolution 209
7.4 Proactive or reactive crisis management 210
7.5 Crisis communication 211
7.6 Conclusions 212
References 212
8 Economic issues of safety 215
8.1 Accident costs and hypothetical benefits 216
8.1.1 Quick calculation example of accident costs based on the number of serious accidents 218
8.2 Prevention costs 220
8.3 Prevention benefits 220
8.4 The degree of safety and the minimum total cost point 221
8.5 Safety economics and the three different types of risks 222
8.6 Cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis for occupational (type I) accidents 224
8.6.1 Cost-effectiveness analysis 224
8.6.2 Cost-benefit analysis 225
8.6.2.1 Cost-benefit analysis for safety measures 225
8.6.3 Advantages and disadvantages of analyses based on costs and benefits 226
8.7 Optimal allocation strategy for the safety budget 227
8.8 Loss aversion and safety investments - safety as economic value 228
8.9 Conclusions 229
References 229
9 Risk governance 231
9.1 Introduction 231
9.2 Risk management system 232
9.3 A framework for risk and uncertainty governance 238
9.4 The risk governance model (RGM) 243
9.4.1 The "considering?" layer of the risk governance model 245
9.4.2 The "results?" layer of the risk governance model 245
9.4.3 The risk governance model 246
9.5 A risk governance PDCA 246
9.6 Risk governance deficits 248
9.7 Conclusions 250
References 251
10 Examples of practical implementation of risk management 253
10.1 The MICE concept 254
10.1.1 The management step 255
10.1.2 The information and education step 255
10.1.3 The control step 256
10.1.4 The emergency step 256
10.2 Application to chemistry research and chemical hazards 256
10.3 Application to physics research and physics hazards 258
10.3.1 Hazards of liquid cryogens 259
10.3.2 Asphyxiation 262
10.4 Application to emerging technologies 263
10.4.1 Nanotechnologies as an illustrative example 286
10.5 Conclusions 288
References 289
11 Major industrial accidents and learning from accidents 271
11.1 Link between major accidents and legislation 291
11.2 Major industrial accidents: Examples 293
11.2.1 Feyzin, France, January 1966 293
11.2.2 Flixborough, UK, June 1974 293
11.2.3 Seveso, Italy, July 1976 294
11.2.4 Los Alfaques, Spain, July 1978 295
11.2.5 Mexico City, Mexico, November 1984 295
11.2.6 Bhopal, India, December 1984 296
11.2.7 Chernobyl, Ukraine, April 1986 296
11.2.8 Piper Alpha, North Sea, July 1988 296
12 Concluding remarks 285
Index 289