Future Ready (eBook)

How to Master Business Forecasting
eBook Download: EPUB
2010 | 1. Auflage
328 Seiten
John Wiley & Sons (Verlag)
978-0-470-66221-2 (ISBN)

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Future Ready - Steve Morlidge, Steve Player
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The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious
flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal
with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly
illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known
for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is
badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance
tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe.

It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run
forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they
provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book
synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and
over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is
presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any
organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key
message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the
future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good
enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to
take timely action, will help your organization to create its own
future.

Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future
Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:

* What makes a good forecast?

* What period should a forecast cover?

* How frequently should it be updated?

* What information should it contain?

* What is the best way to produce a forecast?

* How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data
manipulation?

* How should a forecast be used?

* How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?

* How accurate does it need to be?

* How should you deal with risk and uncertainty

* What is the best way to organize a forecast process?

* Do you need multiple forecasts?

* What changes should be made to other performance management
processes to facilitate good forecasting?

Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing
managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking
for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and
craft of management.

Praise for Future Ready

"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting
going forward"

--Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC

"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory
in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love
from page one"

--Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management
Development at StatoilHydro

"A timely addition to the growing research on management
planning and performance measurement."

--Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor
of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many
standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial
Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and
Financial Accounting

"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the
market."

--Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive
Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Steve Morlidge has 30 years of practical experience in designing and running performance management systems in Unilever, including three years as the lead of a global change project. He is a former Chairman of the European Beyond Budgeting Round Table and now works as an academic and independent consultant for a range of major companies. He is a prominent public speaker, drawing on his years of experience at the leading edge of performance management thought and practice. Contact: steve.morlidge@satoripartners.co.uk Web: www.satoripartners.co.uk Steve Player, founder and managing director of The Player Group, has co-authored and edited five industry-leading cost and performance management books. He is program director for the Beyond Budgeting Round Table in North America. He served as the Managing Partner of the Advanced Cost Management Team of a global accounting firm. He is a top ranked speaker and consultant helping clients implement leading edge practices. He also writes a monthly column on Finance Transformation. Contact: steve@theplayergroup.com Web: www.theplayergroup.com Visit www.futurereadybook.com

Table of Figures xi

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgements xxv

Section 1 'Why?' 1

Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I've Seen 3

Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17

Section 2 Principles 33

Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose - the Cassandra Paradox 35

Chapter 3 Mastering Time - Delay and Decision 57

Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87

Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement - Learning to Love Error 125

Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151

Section 3 'Praxis' 179

Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183

Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183

Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198

Theme #3 'Whose job is it anyway?' Roles and responsibilities 210

Section 4 Transformation 219

Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221

Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233

Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243

Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257

Glossary 261

Appendix 1 - Design Principles: A Summary 267

Appendix 2 - Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275

References 289

Index 295

Erscheint lt. Verlag 19.2.2010
Sprache englisch
Themenwelt Wirtschaft Betriebswirtschaft / Management Unternehmensführung / Management
Wirtschaft Volkswirtschaftslehre Ökonometrie
Schlagworte Business & Management • Strategic Management • Strategisches Management • Wirtschaft u. Management
ISBN-10 0-470-66221-2 / 0470662212
ISBN-13 978-0-470-66221-2 / 9780470662212
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