The Challenges of the Housing Economy – an international perspective

Colin Jones is Professor of Estate Management, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University Neil Dunse is a Reader in Urban Studies, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University Michael White is Professor of Real Estate Economics at Nottingham Trent University

Contributors xiii Glossary xvii 1 Introduction: The Housing Economy and the Credit Crunch 1 Colin Jones The Irish example 2 International historical housing market context 3 Dynamics of the housing market 6 Housing market and the economy 9 Origins and impact of credit crunch 11 Objectives and structure of the book 18 Summary 23 2 US Housing Policy in the Era of Boom and Bust 25 Harry W Richardson, Gordon F Mulligan and John L Carruthers House prices from 1995 to present 27 Housing reforms for the future 35 Conclusion 44 3 Housing Bubbles and Foreclosures that Follow: The Case of Las Vegas 47 Craig A Depken II, Harris Hollans and Steve Swidler Data and definition of property flipping 48 Anatomy of boom bust market dynamics 50 Foreclosure activity after the bubble burst 51 Concluding thoughts 55 4 Unemployment Risk, Homeownership and Housing Wealth: Lessons from Bubble Aftermath in Japan 58 Yoko Moriizumi and Michio Naoi Housing bubble and burst in Japan 60 Unemployment risk and homeownership 68 Housing wealth and consumption 74 Conclusion 81 Appendices: Details of statistical analysis 83 5 The Changing Nature of Household Demand and Housing Market Trends in China 90 Edward C Y Yiu and Sherry Y S Xu Introduction to the housing market 91 Population growth hypothesis 94 Income growth hypothesis 96 Monetary policy hypothesis 100 Conclusions 105 6 Structural Sustainability of Homeownership in Australia 108 Judith Yates Australia s housing system 110 Future projections of homeownership sustainability 119 Conclusions 126 7 Impacts on Wealth and Debt of Changes in the Danish Financial Framework Over a Housing Cycle 128 Jens Lunde Dynamics of recent Danish housing market cycles 130 Changing structure of owner occupation 133 Changing mortgage finance and indebtedness 135 Financial stability of owner-occupied households 140 Conclusions 151 8 Market Stability, Housing Finance and Homeownership in Germany 153 Peter Westerheide Characteristics of the German housing market 154 German housing price trends: an international comparison 158 Housing demand and housing investment 160 The contribution of the financing system 162 The impact of the financial crisis on the German housing market 164 High down-payment constraints and stability: contradicting aims? The role of savings behaviour 164 Conclusion and outlook 168 9 The Responsiveness of New Supply to House Prices: A Perspective from the Spanish Housing Market 170 Paloma Taltavull de La Paz Housing supply trends 171 Spanish housing market cycle pre and post the fi nancial crisis 174 Estimation of the supply elasticity of new houses 179 Summary and conclusion 184 Appendix: Details of statistical analysis 186 10 The UK Housing Market Cycle and the Role of Planning: The Policy Challenge Following the Financial Crisis 195 Colin Jones Housing market context 196 Anatomy of the housing market boom and bust 197 Evolution of the planning framework in the UK 205 Recent planning policies 207 The planning policy consequences of the recession and beyond 212 New planning agenda 213 Conclusions 214 11 Developments in the Role of Social Housing in Europe 216 Christine M E Whitehead Looking back: social housing and the welfare state in Europe 217 Outcomes 226 Future developments 231 Conclusions 233 12 Delivering Affordable Housing in the UK 235 Kenneth Gibb Historic social housing context in Scotland 238 Background to the current Scottish affordability challenge 239 Assessing the emerging models 245 Concluding discussion 252 13 The Private Rented Sector As a Source of Affordable Housing 255 Michael Ball The private rented sector within the housing system 256 Potential policy developments 265 Potential attraction of large investors 272 Summary and conclusions 278 14 Conclusions: The Challenges Ahead 282 Colin Jones The credit crunch 282 Commonalities and challenges 284 The future 290 Concluding remarks 292 References 294 Index 312