Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems VI (eBook)

Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems VI 1
Preface 
5 
Committees and Chairs of AESCS’09 
7 
Contents 
9 
Part I Agent-Based Financial Markets 11
Comprehensive Analysis of Information Transmission Among Agents: Similarity and Heterogeneity of Collective Behavior 12
1 Introduction 12
2 Literature Survey 14
3 Model and Methods 15
4 Empirical Analysis 18
5 Conclusions 25
References 26
Examining the Effects of Traders' Overconfidence on Market Behavior 27
1 Introduction 27
2 The Model 29
2.1 Market Structure 29
2.2 Learning of Traders 30
3 Simulations 32
4 Conclusion 38
References 38
Part II Financial Forecasting and Investment 40
Short Time Correction to Mean Variance Analysis in an Optimized Two-Stock Portfolio 41
1 Introduction 41
2 Mean-Variance Analysis for the Long Time Scale 43
3 Short Term Correction 44
4 Decision Mechanism 45
5 Simulation Result 46
6 Conclusion 50
References 50
Exchange Rate Forecasting with Hybrid Genetic Algorithms 52
1 Introduction 52
2 Methodology and Data Description 54
2.1 Genetic Algorithms 54
2.2 Particle Swarm Optimization 55
2.3 Back Propagation Network 56
2.4 Variables and Data Normalization 57
3 Experiment Design 57
4 Experiment Results 59
4.1 Comparing the Forecasting Results by Three Criteria 59
4.2 Comparison of the Forecast Results by Monthly Exchange Rate 61
5 Conclusion and Suggestions 62
References 62
Part III Cognitive Modeling of Agents 64
Learning Backward Induction: A Neural Network Agent Approach 65
1 Introduction 65
2 Methodology 66
2.1 The Class of Games 66
2.2 Introduction to Neural Networks 67
2.3 Simulations, Models and Heuristics 69
2.4 Performance Testing 70
3 Results 71
3.1 Comparison of NN Topologies 71
3.2 Comparison of NNs to Standard Classification Algorithms and Heuristics 71
3.3 Detailed Analysis of bold0mu mumu equation1 Agents' Performance 73
3.4 Subgame and Truncation Consistency 73
3.5 Agent Heterogeneity 74
4 Conclusion 74
A Technical Presentation of the NN Backpropagation Algorithm 75
References 77
Cognitive-Costed Agent Model of the Microblogging Network 78
1 Introduction 78
2 Data Analysis 79
3 Model 82
3.1 Simple Reciprocal Model 82
3.2 Reciprocal Model with Cognitive Cost 83
4 Discussion and Conclusions 86
References 87
Part IV Complexity and Policy Analysis 88
Landscape Analysis of Possible Outcomes 89
1 Introduction 89
2 Landscape Analysis of Possible Outcomes 91
3 Case Example 93
3.1 Model 93
3.1.1 Sales Division and Salespersons 93
3.1.2 Organizational Behavior 94
3.1.3 Evaluation System 94
3.1.4 Organizational Learning 94
3.2 Simulation 95
3.2.1 Verification and Validation 95
3.2.2 Experimental Design 95
3.2.3 Result 96
4 Discussion 97
4.1 Analysis of Uncertainties 97
4.2 Evaluation and Scope 98
5 Summary and Future Study 99
References 99
The Flow of Information Through People's Network and Its Effect on Japanese Public Pension System 101
1 Introduction 101
2 Basics 102
2.1 The Function for Agent to Agent Interactions 102
2.2 Three Basic Network Models 105
3 Choice of Network Model that Fit Well in Real People's Network 105
4 Put the Information on the Agent-to-Agent Network 107
5 The Effect of Releasing the Information and Its Expansion on Japanese Public Pension System 108
5.1 The Execution of Simulation 108
5.2 Simulation Results 109
5.2.1 The Altered Distribution in Agent's Attitude Score 109
5.2.2 Investigating the Reasons for the Differences from ``Agent's Links'' 109
5.2.3 Investigating the Reasons for the Differences from Agent's ``Betweeness Centrality'' 114
5.2.4 The Relationships Between Information Flow and Pension Premium Fund 115
5.2.5 Additional Simulation 116
6 Conclusion and Future Works 118
References 118
Identification of Voting with Individual's Feet Through Agent-Based Modeling 120
1 Introduction 120
2 Related Work 121
2.1 Social Phenomenon of Migration 121
2.2 Studies About VWF 122
3 Model Description 123
3.1 Government Agent Model 123
3.1.1 Basic Concepts of the Model 123
3.1.2 Budget Distribution Strategies 124
3.2 Inhabitant Agent Model 124
3.3 How the Agent-Simulator Works 125
4 Experiments and Discussions 126
4.1 Experimental Results 127
4.1.1 Statistics of the Experiments 127
5 Proposal of Multiple-Layer Modeling 131
5.1 Issues of the Current VWIF Model 131
5.2 Framework of MLM 131
5.3 On Agents' Action Rules in the MLM Environment 132
6 Concluding Remarks 132
References 133
Part V Agent-Based Modeling of Good Societies 134
Communities, Anti-Communities, Pan-Community as Social Order 135
1 Introduction 135
2 The Friend Selection Strategies based on Attribute and Reputation in Group (FSS-ARG) 136
3 Evolutionary Simulation of Peace 138
4 Emergence of Four Types of Social States 140
5 Discussions 144
References 145
Bayesian Analysis Method of Time Series Data in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Market 146
1 Introduction 146
2 Analytical Methods of Time Series Data 147
2.1 Overview of DFT 147
2.2 BAM 148
2.3 Classification Method Using Distribution 149
3 Model 150
3.1 Model of Participant Nations in Emissions Trading 150
3.2 Compliance Mechanism 152
4 Experiments: Comparison of DFT and BAM 153
4.1 Setting 153
4.2 Experiment Results 154
5 Discussion 156
6 Conclusion 157
References 157
Large Scale Crowd Simulation of Terminal Station Area When Tokai Earthquake Advisory Information Is Announced Officially 159
1 Introduction 159
2 A Framework of the Simulation 160
2.1 Characteristics of the Model Employed in the Research 160
2.2 An Outline of the Model and Framework of the Simulation 161
3 Production Design of LSCSver.1.0 161
3.1 Details of the Model 161
3.2 Assessment of the Shortest Distance 163
3.3 Rules Concerning Movement of Pedestrian Agents 163
3.4 Rules for Route Selection by Pedestrian Agents 164
4 Simulation Analysis 165
4.1 Rules for Route Selection by Pedestrian Agents 165
4.2 Results Analysis 165
4.2.1 Measurement Data 167
5 Conclusion 171
References 171
Part VI Miscellany 173
Boundary Organizations: An Evaluation of Their Impact Through a Multi-Agent System 174
1 Introduction 174
2 Boundary Organizations 175
3 Methodology 177
4 Results 180
5 Conclusion 184
References 185
A Bibliometric Study of Agent-Based Modeling Literature on the SSCI Database 186
1 Introduction 186
2 Agent-Based Modeling Description 187
3 Overall Analysis of ABM literature 187
4 Bradford's Law and Journal Literature 191
5 Lotka's Law and Author Productivity 193
5.1 Distribution of Scientific Productivity of Authors with Equality of Chances of Participation 193
5.2 Lotka's Law 193
6 Conclusion 195
References 195
Author Index 196
Keyword Index 197