Corporate Foresight (eBook)

Preface 6
Foreword 1 8
Foreword 2 10
Foreword 3 12
Acknowledgments 14
Contents 16
List of Tables 20
List of Figures 22
Abbreviations 24
Chapter 1: Introduction 26
1.1 Motivation and Background 26
1.2 Objectives and Research Questions 31
1.3 Relevance of Research 32
1.4 Structure of Thesis 33
Chapter 2: Literature Review 35
2.1 Strategic Management Perspective 37
2.1.1 Environmental Scanning 39
2.1.2 Corporate Change and Ambidexterity 40
2.1.3 Decision Making 48
2.2 Innovation Management Perspective 49
2.2.1 Radical Innovations 53
2.2.2 Disruptions 54
2.3 Future Research Perspective 59
2.3.1 A Brief Overview of Definitions and Relevant Terminology 59
2.3.2 National Economy Perspective (Macro) 59
2.3.3 Corporate Perspective (Micro) 64
2.4 Management Theories 72
2.4.1 Contingency Theory 72
2.4.2 Resource-Based View 73
2.4.3 Dynamic Capabilities 74
2.5 Implications from Past Research for Corporate Foresight 74
Chapter 3: Research Design 78
3.1 Research Aims 78
3.2 Research Strategy 79
3.2.1 Sample and Case Selection 80
3.2.2 Data Collection Instruments 81
3.2.3 Key Informants 82
3.3 Research Sequence 84
3.4 Data Reduction and Coding 86
3.5 Drawing Conclusions and Verifying Data 86
3.5.1 Developing the Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight 87
3.5.2 Identification and Discussion of Best Practices 88
3.6 Measures Taken to Ensure Research Quality 89
Chapter 4: The Maturity Model of Corporate Foresight 93
4.1 The Elements 93
4.1.1 Context 95
4.1.2 Capabilities 96
4.1.2.1 Information Usage 96
4.1.2.2 Method Sophistication 98
4.1.2.3 People and Networks 99
4.1.2.4 Organization 100
4.1.2.5 Culture 101
4.1.3 Impact/Value Creation 103
4.1.3.1 Reduction of Uncertainty 104
4.1.3.2 Triggering Internal Actions 108
4.1.3.3 Influencing Others to Act 111
4.1.3.4 Secondary Benefits 114
4.2 Maturity Levels 115
4.2.1 Information Usage 117
4.2.2 Method Sophistication 120
4.2.3 People and Networks 125
4.2.4 Organization 126
4.2.5 Culture 130
4.3 Usage Logic 132
4.3.1 The Trade-Off Between Structure and Culture 133
4.3.2 Process Dimension 135
4.3.3 Usage Procedure 137
4.3.3.1 First Step: Choosing the Overall Maturity Level 138
4.3.3.2 Second Step: Choosing Between the Cultural and Structural Approach 139
4.3.3.3 Third Step: Choosing Maturity Levels for Individual Capabilities 141
4.3.4 Conclusion on Usage of the Maturity Model 142
Chapter 5: Best-Practices in Corporate Foresight 144
5.1 Networks of Scouts (Information Usage) 144
5.1.1 Context and Motivation 144
5.1.2 Description of Practice 147
5.1.3 Evaluation 151
5.2 Data Mining (Information Usage) 152
5.2.1 Context and Motivation 153
5.2.2 Description of Practice 154
5.2.3 Evaluation 157
5.3 Combining Scenario Analysis with Roadmapping (Method Sophistication) 158
5.3.1 Context and Motivation 159
5.3.2 Description of Practice 160
5.3.3 Evaluation 164
5.4 IT Collaboration Tools (People and Networks) 166
5.4.1 Context and Motivation 167
5.4.2 Description of Practice 167
5.4.3 Evaluation 170
5.5 Communicating Insights Through Participation (People and Networks) 172
5.5.1 Context and Motivation 172
5.5.2 Description of Practice 173
5.5.3 Evaluation 176
5.6 Linking Foresight to Strategy (Organization) 177
5.6.1 Short-Term (1Year) 178
5.6.2 Medium Term (3-5Years) 180
5.6.3 Long Term (15-25Years) 182
5.6.4 Evaluation 183
5.7 Linking Foresight to Innovation Management (Organization) 184
5.7.1 The Initiator Role 185
5.7.2 The Strategist Role 187
5.7.3 The Opponent Role 189
5.7.4 Evaluation 190
5.8 Involving Every Employee to Manage Discontinuous Change (Culture) 191
5.8.1 Context and Motivation 192
5.8.2 Description of Practice 192
5.8.3 Evaluation 196
Chapter 6: Discussion and Conclusion 197
6.1 Managerial Contributions 197
6.2 Theoretical Contributions 200
6.3 Limitations and Future Research Directions 204
Chapter 7: Appendix 207
7.1 Interview Guideline 207
7.2 Context Questionnaire 209
7.3 Interview Templates 212
7.4 Informants 216
7.5 Internal Documents 218
7.6 Public Information Sources 220
7.7 Academic Publications by Informants 221
7.8 Coding Tree 221
References 223