Modeling Risk Management in Sustainable Construction (eBook)

Preface 6
References 7
Contents 8
Contributors 14
Part I: Enterprise Risk Management in Supply Chains 24
An Improved Approach for Supplier Selection in Project Material Bidding Procurement 25
1 Introduction 25
2 The Basic Theory of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets 26
3 Supplier Selection Model on Project Materials Bidding and Purchasing 26
4 Empirical Study 29
5 Conclusion 31
References 31
Modeling the Out-of-Stock Risk and the EOQ-JIT Cost Indifference Point 33
1 Introduction 33
2 Harris´ (1915) EOQ Model 34
3 Revised EOQ Model 35
4 Revised EOQ-JIT Cost Indifference Point 37
5 Conclusion 38
References 38
A Partner Selection Method Based on Risk Evaluation Using Fuzzy Soft Set Theory in Supply Chain 40
1 Introduction 40
2 Preliminary 41
2.1 Relative Difference Function Model 41
2.2 Soft Set and Fuzzy Soft Set 42
3 Combined Risk Evaluation and Decision-Making Model Based on Fuzzy Soft Set 42
3.1 Establishment of Risk Factors Set 42
3.2 The Evaluation Model of Risk Level Coefficient 43
3.3 Weight Determination Based on Fuzzy Soft Sets 44
3.4 Decision Algorithm 44
4 A Numerical Example 45
4.1 Stage of Evaluation and Selection 45
4.2 Comparison with AHP and TOPSIS 47
5 Conclusions 47
References 48
A Quantitative Analysis for Degree of Supplier Involvement Under Market Uncertainty 49
1 Introduction 49
2 The Model 51
3 Involvement Degree Decision Process 52
4 Result Analysis 54
4.1 Proposition 1 54
4.2 Proposition 2 55
5 Conclusions 55
References 56
Part II: Enterprise Risk Management in Construction 57
Dynamic Network Planning Simulation for Scheduling Risk Analysis Base on Hybrid System 58
1 Introduction 58
2 PERT Simulation 59
3 The Limitations of PERTS 59
4 The Relations in a Project 60
5 System Dynamics 61
6 Need for Integrating SD and PERTS 62
7 Hybrid SD-PERTS Model 62
8 Example of Modeling Hybrid PERTS-SD 63
9 Conclusion 64
References 64
Research on the Integrated Risk Management Information System of Construction Project 65
1 Introduction 65
2 Integrated Risk Management Theory Model 66
3 Structure of the Integrated Risk Management Information System 67
3.1 Function of the Integrated Risk Management Information System 67
3.1.1 Risk Management Subsystem 67
3.1.2 Risk Management Database 68
3.1.3 External Support Subsystem of Risk Management 69
3.1.4 Relationship of Three Subsystems 69
3.1.5 Relationship of IRMIS and the External System 70
3.2 Structure Design and Coding of Risk Management Database 70
3.2.1 Risk Breakdown Structure 70
3.2.2 Designing Field and Coding of Risk Database 70
4 Conclusion 71
References 71
Sensitivity Analysis for the Relationship Between Toll Rate and Traffic Volume for Freeway 73
1 Introduction 73
2 Traffic Assignment Among Different Parallel Roads 74
2.1 Trip Route Choice Mechanism Based on Utility Theory 74
2.2 Equilibrium Assignment of Traffic Flow Model of Different Parallel Roads Between the Same OD Pairs 76
3 Sensitivity Analysis Measures in Multi-modes Traffic Network 77
4 Practical Example Analysis 78
5 Conclusions 81
References 81
The Application of Dynamic Priority of AHP on Operation Risk Assessment of Metro 82
1 Introduction 82
2 Dynamic Analytic Hierarchy Process 83
3 Operation Risk Assessment of Metro by Dynamic Priority of Analytic Hierarchy Process 83
3.1 Analyze System and Construct Hierarchy Model 83
3.2 Build Initial Judgment Matrices and Dynamic Judgment Matrices 83
3.3 Single Taxis of Hierarchy 84
3.4 Total Taxis of Hierarchy 84
4 Example 84
5 Conclusions 88
References 88
Study on Construction Project Bidding Risk Assessment Model 90
1 Introduction 90
2 Risk Factors of the Bidding Project 91
2.1 Risks from the Owner 91
2.2 Risks from Competitors 91
2.3 Risks from the External Environment 91
2.4 Risks from the Construction Enterprise Itself 92
3 Rough Set-TOPSIS Project Risk Assessment Model 92
3.1 Determine the Risk Assessment Index System 92
3.2 Calculate the Weights of the Indexes 92
3.2.1 Determine Objective Weights Based on Rough Set 92
3.2.2 Determine the Subjective Weights Based on AHP 93
3.2.3 Determine the Synthetic Weights 93
3.3 Collect Data of Each Project According to the Index System C 93
3.4 Normalize the Raw Data and Calculate the Weighted Normalized Value 94
3.5 Determine the Ideal and Negative-Ideal Solutions 94
3.6 Calculate the Euclidean Distances of Each Alternative from the Ideal Solution and the Negative-Ideal Solution 94
3.7 Calculate the Relative Closeness Di 94
4 Example 95
4.1 Determine the Risk Assessment Index System 95
4.2 Determine the Weights of the Indexes 95
4.3 Assess the Project Risk 95
5 Conclusions 96
References 97
Study on Prophase Risk Management in Informatization of Chinese Construction Enterprises 98
1 Introduction 98
2 The Importance of Prophase Risk Management in Informatization of Chinese Construction Enterprises 99
3 Analysis of Risk Factors in Prophase Informatization of Chinese Construction Enterprises 100
4 Risk Assessments in Prophase Informatization of Construction Enterprises 101
4.1 Relative Risk: A 101
4.2 Relative Loss: B 102
4.3 Failure Rate: P 102
4.4 Relative Time Risk: C 102
4.5 Comprehensive Risk Coefficient: r 103
4.6 Risk Evaluation Value in Prophase Informatization: R 103
5 The Risk Control Strategy in Prophase Informatization of Construction Enterprises 104
5.1 Measures of Personnel Risk Control 104
5.2 Measures of Management Risk Control 104
5.3 Measures of Technological Risk Control 104
5.4 Measures of Economic Risk Control 105
6 Conclusions 105
References 106
Managing Construction Risk in SMEs: The Case of Coastal Construction 107
1 Introduction 107
2 Business Risks and Risk Appetite for SMEs 108
2.1 Business Risk 108
2.2 Risk Appetite 109
2.3 The Challenge of Risk Management in Construction SMEs 109
3 Case Study: Coastal Construction (Building) LTD 110
3.1 Background 110
3.2 Coastal Construction LTD Approach to Risk Management 111
3.3 Risk Identification 112
3.4 Risk Analysis 112
3.5 Risk Response 112
3.6 Risk Monitoring and Follow Up 114
4 Concluding Discussion 116
Short Biography 116
References 116
A Study on Management Risk Evaluation System of Large-Scale Complex Construction Projects 118
1 Introduction 118
2 Risk Identification 119
3 Risk Estimation 119
4 Risk Evaluation 120
5 Case Study 123
6 Summary 125
References 126
Risk-Based Determination of the Prenium Rate of Construction Work Safety Liability Insurance 127
1 Introduction 127
2 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation 128
3 Procedures for Calculating the Coefficient [12] 129
3.1 Establishing Index System 129
3.2 Determining Risk Grade and Establishing Evaluation Sets 129
3.3 Determining the Single-Factor Fuzzy Judgment Matrix 130
3.4 Calculating the Weight of Indicators 132
3.5 Establishing a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model 132
3.6 Determinating the Risk Coefficient of the Project 133
4 Conclusion 134
References 134
Part III: Enterprise Risk Management in Projects 135
Multi-criteria Decision Model for BOT Project Selection 136
1 Introduction 136
2 The Criteria and Measurements 137
2.1 Financial Criteria 138
2.2 Non-financial Criteria 138
3 The Weighting and Utility Function of Each Criterion 138
4 The Case Study 139
5 Conclusions 141
References 142
Equitable Risk Allocation in Chinese Public-Private Partnership Power Projects 143
1 Introduction 143
2 PPP in Chinese Power Sector 144
3 Research Aim and Methodology 145
4 Discussion of Survey Results 145
4.1 Corruption 146
4.2 Change in Law 147
4.3 Competition (Exclusive Right) 148
4.4 Uncompetitive Tender 149
4.5 Organization and Coordination 149
5 Conclusions 149
References 150
Developing a Construction Safety Management System 151
1 Introduction 152
2 Literature Review 152
3 Developing a Construction Safety Management System 153
4 Advantages of the ConSASS-2D 155
References 156
Analysis of the Equipment´s Maintenance Period Under Different Operation Stages 157
1 Introduction 157
2 Maintenance Policy 158
2.1 Corrective Maintenance 158
2.2 Preventive Maintenance 159
2.3 On-Condition Maintenance 159
2.4 Opportunistic Maintenance 160
2.5 Revising Design 160
3 The Relation Between Failure Rate lambda(t) and the Best Maintenance Time 160
4 Case Study 162
5 Conclusion 163
References 164
An Evolutionary Game Model for the Risk Management Cooperation Among the Project Participants 165
1 Introduction 165
2 The Evolutionary Game Model Between the Owners and Contractors for the Risk Management Cooperation 166
2.1 Hypotheses of the Model 166
2.2 Analysis of the Evolutionary Game Model 167
2.3 Analysis of Parameter 168
2.3.1 Risk Management Cost Parameter C1, C2 169
2.3.2 Proportion Coefficient beta of Risk Loss 169
3 Conclusion 170
References 171
Application of Industrialized Housing System in China: A Chongqing Study 172
1 Introduction 173
2 Research Methodology 174
2.1 Analytical Hierarchy Process 175
2.2 Prioritization of the Six Industrialized Housing Systems 175
3 Analysis of the Results 177
4 Conclusion 178
References 179
Part IV: Energy Risk Management 180
The Study on Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emission of Civil Vehicles in Beijing 181
1 Introduction 181
2 Methodology 182
3 Model of Energy Consumption and Pollution Emission 182
3.1 Research Model 182
3.2 Mathematical Modeling 183
3.2.1 Energy Consumption 183
3.2.2 Pollution Emissions 183
Distance-Based Pollution Emissions 183
Energy-Based Pollution Emissions 184
4 Research Findings 184
5 Summary 188
References 188
An Investigation of the Coal Demand in China Based on Variable Weight Combination Forecasting Model 190
1 Introduction 190
2 Individual Model Forecasting of the Coal Demand in China 191
2.1 Multiple Linear Regression Model Forecasting 191
2.1.1 The Construction of Multiple Linear Regression Model 191
2.1.2 Independent Variable Forecasting 192
2.1.3 Coal Demand Forecasting 193
2.2 Grey System Forecasting Model 193
2.2.1 Construction of Coal Demand GM (1, 1) 193
2.2.2 Test of the Model 194
Residual Error Test 194
Association Degree Test 194
Mean Variance Ratio Value Test and Small Probable Error Test 194
2.2.3 Coal Demand Forecasting 195
3 Variable Weight Combination Forecasting of Coal Demand in China 195
3.1 Construction and Solving of the Model 195
3.2 Variable Weight Combination Forecasting of Coal Demand 197
4 Conclusions 198
References 199
Investment Cost Analysis for Key Industries of New Energy Based on Boston Experience Curve 200
1 Introduction 200
2 Boston Experience Curve and New Energy Industry 201
2.1 Experience Learning Curve 201
2.2 The Experience Curve Model and the New Energy Wind Power Industry [3-7] 201
3 Investment Cost Analysis for Wind Power Industries Based on Boston Experience Curve 202
3.1 The Calculation Process 202
3.2 Computational Model and Investment Forecast 202
4 Results and Conclusions 203
References 204
Part V: Environmental Risk Management 206
Green Adaptive Reuse: Issues and Strategies for the Built Environment 207
1 Introduction 207
2 Adaptive Reuse 208
3 Issues 211
4 Strategies 214
5 Conclusion 215
References 216
Risk Assessment of Regional Industrial Clusters 218
1 Introduction 218
2 Set Up the Risk Evaluation System for Industrial Clusters 219
2.1 The Steps for Risk Assessment of Industrial Clusters of AHP Method 220
2.2 Setting Up the Determination Matrix 221
2.3 Calculation to Determine Matrix 221
2.4 Consistency Test 222
3 Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Each Index 222
3.1 Determining the Evaluation Set and Remark Rating 222
3.2 Determining the Weight Vector of Evaluation Index 224
3.3 Determining the Evaluation Matrix of Index 224
3.4 The Index Rating 224
4 Conclusion 225
References 225
Subway System Safety Risk Analysis Based on Bayesian Network 226
1 Introduction 226
2 Subway System Safety Analysis 227
3 Bayesian Network Model 228
4 Case Study: Fire Risk of Subway System 229
4.1 General Description and Bayesian Network Model Establishment 229
4.2 Prior and Conditional Probabilities 229
4.3 Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis 230
5 Conclusions 233
References 234
Eco-Efficiency Assessment for the Eco-Industrial Park Based on the Emergy Analysis 235
1 Introduction 235
2 Issues Brought Forward 236
3 Methodology 236
4 Emergy Flow of EIPs 236
5 Emergy Analysis of EIPs 237
6 Case Study 239
7 Summary 239
References 241
The Study of Green Risk Assessment for Construction Project Based on ``AHP-FCE´´ Method 242
1 Introduction 242
2 The Concept of Green Risk in Construction Project 243
3 The Establishment of the Green Risk Evaluation System for Construction Project 243
4 ``AHP-FCE´´ Model of Green Risk 243
4.1 Index Weight of Ordering in Single Level is Determined with the Use of AHP Model 243
4.2 Green Risk Rank is Confirmed with the Use of FCE Model 245
5 Conclusions 249
References 249
Intensive Land Use Evaluation of Urban Development Zones: A Case Study of Xi´an National Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone in China 250
1 Introduction 250
2 Evaluation Index System 251
3 Data and Calculation Results 252
3.1 Actual Value of Indexes 252
3.2 Ideal Value of Indexes 252
3.3 Degree of Realization 253
3.4 Intensive Land Use Evaluation and Analysis 254
4 Conclusions 255
References 255
Industrial Planning, Macro-economic Control and Government´s Role in the Perspective of Economic Crisis 256
1 Introduction 256
2 Theoretical Analysis: Functions of the Government in Industry Planning During the Economic Crisis 257
2.1 Assumption 258
2.2 The Situation Without Industry Planning 259
2.3 Lacking of Investment Motivation 259
3 The Orientation of the Chinese Government Function in the Development of Industry 260
3.1 The Quality of Information 260
3.2 The Proportion of Profitable Projects 261
3.3 The Level of Social Earnings 261
4 Conclusions 262
References 262
Evaluation and Simulation for Ecology Risk of Urban Expansion Based on SERA Model 263
1 Introduction 264
1.1 Realization of the SERA Model 266
1.1.1 Realization of the Driving Force Factors and Resistance Factors 266
1.1.2 Realization of Ecology Risk and Social Economy Factor 267
2 Ecology Risk Evaluation for Selangor, Malaysia 268
3 Result and Conclusion 269
References 269
Part VI: Financial Risk 271
The Gerber-Shiu Discounted Penalty Function for the Credit Risk Model with Dependent Rates of Interest 272
1 Introduction 272
2 Integral Equations for Penalty Functions 274
3 Some Special Cases 276
References 278
A Risk-Sensitivity Analysis on NPV Model of Investment Projects 279
1 Introduction 279
2 Sensitivity Analysis Based on NPV Model 280
2.1 NPV Model 280
2.2 Multi-factor Sensitivity Analysis 280
2.3 Multi-factor Sensitivity Analysis 281
3 Case Analysis 281
3.1 Risk Analysis 282
3.2 Model Accuracy and Test of Stability 283
4 Conclusion 283
References 283
Research on Appraisal of High-Tech Entrepreneurial Risk Based on Osculating Value Method 284
1 Introduction 284
2 Related Research 285
3 Evaluation Index System of Entrepreneurial Risk 286
3.1 Opportunity Risk 286
3.2 Market Risk 287
3.3 Management Risk 287
3.4 Capital Risk 287
3.5 Environment Risk 287
4 Entrepreneurial Risk Assessment Model 288
4.1 Establishment of Index Matrix and Standardization 288
4.2 Determine the Optimum Point and the Inferior Point of Program Set 288
4.3 Calculation of Osculating Value of Each Program 289
5 Empirical Analysis 289
6 Conclusion 291
References 292
An Approach to Overseas Iron Ore Investment Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Neural Network 293
1 Introduction 293
2 Risk Factors of the Overseas Iron Ore Investment 294
3 Risk Assessment of Overseas Iron Ore Investment Based on Fuzzy 295
3.1 Fuzzy Sets and Membership Matrix 295
3.2 Investment Risk Rating 296
4 Neural Network Model 296
4.1 Fuzzy BP Neural Network Design 296
4.2 Learning Process of Single BP Neural Network 296
5 Case Studies 297
6 Conclusions 299
References 299
Analysis on Structure Risk and Its Countermeasures of International Trade Corridor in Inland China 300
1 Introduction 300
2 Structural Characteristics Analysis of ITC in Inland China (Chongqing as an example) 301
2.1 Structural Characteristics of Chongqing International Trade Orientation 301
2.2 Composition and Characteristics of the Main Transport Corridors 302
2.3 Structural Characteristics of Transshipment Port 302
2.4 Transport Modes of Chongqing International Trade 302
3 Structural Risks and Countermeasures of ITC in Inland China (Chongqing as an Example) 304
3.1 Main Structural Risk of the ITC in Chongqing 304
3.2 Countermeasures of Solving Structural Risks 304
3.2.1 Four Main Corridors (Core Corridor System) 304
3.2.2 Six Auxiliary Corridors (Auxiliary Corridor System) 305
3.2.3 Integration of the Four-Main-Corridors and the Six-Auxiliary-Corridors 307
4 Conclusion 307
References 307
Part VII: Sustainable Risk Management Tools 309
Asphalt Pavement Surface Penetrate Rejuvenate Restore Technology: Application and Evaluation 310
1 Introduction 310
2 The General Description of Technologies 311
3 Asphalt Pavement Conditions for the Application of SPRR Technology 311
3.1 The Choose of Applicable Timing 311
3.2 The Request of the Original Pavement on Asphalt Pavement SPRR Technology 312
4 The Material Requirements for Asphalt Pavement SPRR Technology 312
5 Mechanism of Asphalt Pavement SPRR Technology 312
5.1 Penetration Mechanism 313
5.2 Rejuvenate Mechanism 313
5.3 Mechanism of Micro-cracks Sealing 313
5.4 Mechanism of Closing Pavement and Bonding Loose Aggregate 314
6 Construction of Asphalt Pavement SPRR Technology 314
6.1 The Determination of Sprayed Amount of Rejuvenate Maintenance Agent 314
6.2 Construction 314
6.3 The Pavement Maintenance 315
6.4 Implementation Effects and Evaluations 315
6.4.1 Technology Results 315
6.4.2 Technology Evaluation 316
6.4.3 Intuitionistic Visual Evaluation 317
7 Economic Efficiency 317
References 317
A Study of Construction Project Conflict Management Based on Evolutionary Game Theory 318
1 Introduction 318
2 Evolutionary Game Model of Compensation System 319
2.1 Evolutionary Game Theory 319
2.2 Evolutionary Game Model 319
3 Model Analysis 321
4 Conclusion and Suggestions 323
References 323
Study on the Management Mechanism of Emergency Telecommunication in China 324
1 Introduction 324
2 Status of Emergency Telecommunications Management 325
3 Study on Mechanism of Emergency Telecommunications Management 325
3.1 Feature and Content of Emergency Telecommunications 326
3.2 Mechanism System of Emergency Telecommunications 327
4 Conclusion 329
References 330
Forewarning for Urban Sustainable Development Based on Fuzzy Matter Element Model: Taking Nan Tong City for Example 331
1 Introduction 331
2 Urban Sustainable Development Forewarning Model 332
2.1 Fuzzy Matter Element Model and Composite Fuzzy Matter Element Mode 332
2.2 The Establishment of the Forewarning Standard 332
2.3 Standard Fuzzy Matter-Element 333
2.4 The Determining of Forewarning Index Weights 333
2.5 Comprehensive Forewarning Model 333
3 SD Forewarning Evaluation of Nantong City 334
3.1 Forewarning Index System 334
3.2 The Determining of Forewarning Index Weights 334
3.3 Forewarning Standards Setting 334
3.4 Evaluation of Forewarning Results 336
4 Conclusions 337
References 337
Resident Population Prediction Based on Cohort-Component Method 338
1 Introduction 338
2 Cohort-Component Method for Population Prediction 339
2.1 Cohort-Component Model 339
2.2 Data Sources 340
2.3 Rate of Change 340
2.3.1 Death Rate 341
2.3.2 Fertility Rate 341
2.3.3 Migration Rate 342
2.4 Population Prediction 343
3 Summary 344
References 345
Dynamic Monitoring of Land Utilization Security of Mining City 346
1 Introduction 346
2 The Land Use Security Elements of Mining City 348
2.1 The Development Situation of Mining City 348
2.2 The Connotation of Land Utilization Security of Mining Cities 349
2.3 The Evaluation Indexes of Land Utilization Security of Mining City 350
3 The Land Utilization Security Monitoring Methods and Contents of Mining Cities 351
4 The Land Utilization Security Warning of Mining Cities 353
4.1 The Ideas of Land Utilization Security Warning of Mining Cities 353
4.2 The Warning Model of the Land Utilization Security Warning of Mining Cities 354
4.3 Warning Degree Prediction of Land Utilization Security of Mining City 355
5 Conclusions 355
References 356
Risk Assessment of Water Transportation in Three Gorges Reservoir Through Approaches of System Engineering 358
1 Introduction 359
2 Water Transportation Risk Evaluation Index System Through Approaches of System Engineering Theory 359
3 Unascertained Measure Model for Water Transport Safety Assessment in Three Gorges Reservoir 360
3.1 Single-Index Unascertained Measure 360
3.2 Determination of Index Weight 360
3.2.1 Entropy Method 361
3.2.2 The Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process 361
3.2.3 Determining the Weight of Index with the Combination Weighting Approach 361
3.3 Multi-index Measure of Evaluation 361
3.4 Identification and Evaluation of System Security 362
3.4.1 Application of Unascertained Measure Model in Risk Assessment 362
4 Summary 364
References 364
Damaged Bridges over Watercourses and Stream Order Flood Analysis 365
1 Introduction 365
2 Bridges 366
3 Hydrometric Stations 367
4 Stream Order 367
5 Conclusions 369
References 370
Part VIII: Enterprise Risk Management Modeling 371
Understanding Commuters´ Daily Travel Time: Application of a Hazard-Based Duration Model 372
1 Introduction 373
2 Literature Review 373
3 Modeling Methodology 374
4 Data Description 376
5 Model Estimation Results 376
6 Conclusions and Discussion 378
References 378
Influence of Perceived Risk and Service Recovery on On-Line Shopping: A Dynamic Game of Incomplete Information 380
1 Introduction 380
2 Hypothesis and Model 381
3 Economic Explanations of Equilibriums and Discussions 384
3.1 Pooling Equilibrium theta h /to SR=1, theta l /to SR=1 384
3.2 Separating Equilibrium theta h /to SR=1, theta l /to SR=0 385
3.3 Pooling Equilibrium theta h /to SR=0, theta l /to SR=0 385
4 Conclusions 386
References 386
Traffic Risk Assessment of Freeway On-Ramp and Off-Ramp Areas Based on Simulation Analysis 388
1 Introduction 389
2 Concept of Driving Risk 389
3 Driving Risk Assessment Index and Risk Classification 389
4 Braking Deceleration Risk 390
5 Unsafe Density Parameter UD 390
6 Driving Risk Classification 392
7 Simulation Analysis 392
8 Experiment Design 392
9 Traffic Control Standards of Mainline 393
10 Application Example 393
11 Conclusion 395
References 397
Probe into the Effectiveness Connotation of Emergency Telecommunication Plan and Its Assessment Method Under Unconventional Emergency 399
1 Introduction 399
2 Literature Review 400
2.1 Review of the Connotation of Effectiveness 400
2.2 Review Assessment Model of the Effectiveness of the Plan 401
3 Effectiveness Connotation of Emergency Telecommunication Plan 401
4 The Method of Constructing the Model of Effectiveness 402
4.1 Divide Emergency Telecommunication into Different Categories and Levels 402
4.2 Construct the Model of ``Efficiency´´ and Model of ``Effect´´ 403
4.2.1 Model of ``Efficiency´´ (M1) 403
4.2.2 Model of ``Effect´´ (M2) 404
4.2.3 Integration Model of ``Efficiency´´ and ``Effect´´ (M3) and the Full Model (M4) 405
5 Conclusion 405
References 406
Risk Assessment of Levee Engineering Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and Analytic Network Process and Its Application 407
1 Introduction 408
2 Basic Principal 408
2.1 A Basic Principal of Analytic Network Process 408
2.2 Basic Principal of Triangular Fuzzy Number 410
2.3 Case study 413
3 Conclusions 417
References 417