Interpreting Economic and Social Data (eBook)

Preface 5
Contents 12
to 1 Developments in Socio-Economic Statistics 16
Stating the Problem 16
The Anglo-American Influence 16
Socio-Economic Statistics and Decision Theory 19
Misconceptions in Socio-Economic Statistics 20
Symptomatic Omissions 22
Recommendations for the Future 23
Beyond Sampling and Inference 23
Shifts in Emphasis 24
Filling Voids 25
Toward a De-centralized Understanding of Data 26
Notes 27
to 2 From the Facts in Society to Socio-Economic Data 34
Socio-Economic Phenomena -- The Starting and End Point of Statistics 34
Flaws in the Perception of Socio-Economic Reality 34
The `Projecting Agents' of Socio-Economic Phenomena 36
Different Types of `Real-Life-Objects' 37
Substance and Individuality of `Real-Life-Objects' 37
Life Span and Timing of `Real-life-Objects' 39
Location, Extension and Mobility of `Real-Life-Objects' 39
Attributes and Variables 40
From `Real-Life-Object' to `Statistical-Counting-Unit' 41
Surveying the `Real-Life-Objects' 42
The `Statistical-Counting-Units' 43
Notes 45
to 3 Structure and Nature of Socio-Economic Data: The Aggregates 49
The Tri-Dimensional Frame of an Aggregate 49
The Nature of Socio-Economic Statistical Aggregates 54
The Interpretation of Aggregates 57
Tabular Presentation of Aggregates 59
Notes 62
to 4 Ratios in the Social Sciences 64
Why Discuss Ratios? 64
Classifications of Ratios 64
Ratios Classified by Their Purpose 65
Ratios Classified by Closeness of (N) and (D) 65
The Interpretation of Ratios 67
Ratios Between Ratios 71
Other Kinds of Statistical Materials 73
Notes 73
to 5 Interpreting Longitudinal Data, Part 1 -- Looking to the Past 75
Nature and Purpose of Socio-Economic Time-Series 75
Types of Time-Series 76
Time-Series of Data with the Time-DimensionAggregated 76
Time-Series of Inventories and Censuses 79
The Problem of (Dis-)Continuity 80
A Critical Look at the Basic Model of a Time-Series 81
The Secular Trend 81
Seasonal Fluctuations 83
Random Fluctuations 85
The Business Cycle 86
A More Germane Approach to Socio-Economic Time-Series 86
Editing as a First Step of Preparation 88
Relating Data of Regrouped Geographic Areas 89
Relating Data of Re-grouped Socio-Economic Activities 91
Relating Data Grouped in Time-Intervalsof Different Lengths 92
Concluding Observations on Time-Series 94
Notes 94
to 6 Longitudinal Analysis, Part 2 -- Looking to the Future 98
The Forecaster and the Past 98
Statistical Obsolescence, Its Causes and Measurement 99
Obsolescence and Size of the Aggregate 105
Some Conclusions 106
Notes 108
to 7 Longitudinal Analysis, Part 3 -- Index Numbers 111
The Measurement of Prices 111
Introductory Observations 111
A (Very) Brief History of Price Statistics 112
Statistical Price Collection and Market Reality 113
What Really Is `Price'? 114
The Price Aggregates 116
How Changes in Price Levels Ought to Be Measured 117
Summing Up 120
Index Numbers of Quantities 121
Four Complementary Production Concepts 121
What Is Quantity? 125
The Role of Weights in Production-Index-Numbers 128
Measures of Factor Productivity 131
The Production Factor `Labor' 132
Other Production Factors 132
Notes 134
to 8 Cross Sectional Analysis in One Dimension 148
Frequency Distributions in Perspective 148
Linking Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analysis 149
`Measurement' in Socio-Economic Statistics 151
Determining Class Intervals 152
Interpreting Frequency Distributions of Unequal Class-Intervals 155
Interpreting the Cumulative Frequency Distribution 159
Interpreting Measures of Location, Dispersion and Asymmetry 162
Measuring `Central Tendency' and Location 162
Interpreting Measures of Dispersion 164
Interpreting Measures of Asymmetry 165
Notes 168
to 9 Cross Sectional Analysis in More Than One Dimension 174
The Case that Provoked the Re-interpretation of Regression 174
An Irreverent View of Least Squares 178
On Precision in Regression with Aggregate Data 180
Different Forms of Data Association in the Social Sciences 184
Suggestions for an Alternative Model 189
Notes 192
to 10 Socio-Economic Statistics and Probability 194
Introduction -- The Big Picture 194
A Historic Perspective on Probability in the Social Sciences 195
What Really Is Probability in the Social Sciences? 196
Typical Misuses of Probability 199
Random Fluctuations 201
Some Other Misuses of Probability 202
Probability and Sampling 203
Misuses of `Statistical Significance' 205
Toward a Stochastic Worldview? 207
Notes 207
to 11 The Interface Between Statistics and Accounting 217
Socio-Economic Statistics and Accounting 217
Areas Common to Statistics and Accounting 219
Common Areas that Are Recognized 219
Common Areas that Are Not Recognized 221
Concluding Observations on Statistics and Accounting 224
Notes 225
to 12 Socio-Economic Statistics and Geography 227
A First Assessment 227
Statistics in Geography 228
Using Statistical Data 228
Using Statistical Methods 230
Geography in Statistics 232
Differences Between Statistics and Geography 233
A Revised Assessment 234
Notes 234
Afterthoughts 237
Notes 240
to A Appendix to Chapter 3 241
to B Appendix to Chapter 5 244
to C Appendix to Chapter 8 248
Comparing Ai with Other Measures of Asymmetry 49
Notes 252
to D Appendix to Chapter 9 254
Notes 259
to E Appendix to Chapter 10 260
Random Sampling and Sampling Distributions 75
Statistical Significance 76
Levels of Significance 80
Interpreting Statistical Significance 81
Notes 266
Index 268