Fire Your Stock Analyst!
Financial Times Prentice Hall (Verlag)
978-0-13-701023-3 (ISBN)
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“Harry’s book is among my most recommended readings because it provides a step-by-step process that enables any investor to analyze potential investment opportunities and ultimately become a much better investor.”
– Charles E. Kirk, The Kirk Report
“This is a thoughtful book that will stir the imagination and whet the appetite of anyone considering investing in stocks. It will serve as a foundation for lifelong education in how to improve your wealth.”
– Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Investments, and author of the best-selling Education of a Speculator
“This book is sensible, balances risks with rewards, has a lot of real-world practical examples carefully worked out, and a lot of tangible parameters. This is the book I wish I had time to write.”
– David Edwards, President, Heron Capital Management, Inc.
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! grabbed my attention early and held it to the very end. This is a good book if you are interested in being your own stock guru or just getting started in common stock investment analysis.”
– Nicholas D. Gerber, Portfolio Manager, Ameristock Funds
“A refreshing antidote to run-of-the-mill investing ‘how-tos.’ The net result is an insightful and useful treatise on investing that works for both growth and value plays.”
– Charles Mulford, Invesco Chair and Professor of Accounting, Georgia Institute of Technology, and coauthor of The Financial Numbers Game: Detecting Creative Accounting Practices
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! offers honest and up-to-the minute advice and guidance on the investment-research process. Domash offers up a great combination of textbook knowledge backed by real-world examples.”
– Richard H. Driehaus, Driehaus Capital Management, Inc.
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! provides well-thought-out, sensible, step-by-step strategies for analyzing stocks, including when to sell. These analytical methods, used by pros though rarely explained to individual investors, will help you improve your results in the market right away.”
– Jon D. Markman, Senior Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager, Pinnacle Investment Advisors
Harry Domash is best known for his investing tutorial columns that have appeared regularly in print publications such as Business 2.0 Magazine, the San Francisco Chronicle and other newspapers, and on numerous Web sites including MSN Money and Morningstar. He publishes DividendDetective.com, a site specializing in high-dividend investing, and WinningInvesting.com, a free site featuring “how-to” investing tutorials and other resources. Domash conducts fundamental analysis workshops and is a frequent speaker at Money Show investing seminars in Las Vegas, San Francisco, and at the American Association of Individual Investors’ meetings. His books include The Everything Online Investing Book: How to Use the Internet to Analyze Stocks and Mutual Funds.
Acknowledgments . . . xiii
About the Author . . . xxii
Introduction . . . xxiii
PART I GETTING STARTED . . . 1
Chapter 1 The Analysis Process . . . 3
Identifying Potential Candidates . . . 3
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 4
Quick Prequalify . . . 4
Detailed Analysis . . . 6
When to Sell . . . 10
Summary . . . 10
Chapter 2 Evaluating Risk . . . 11
Portfolio Risk . . . 11
Risk Factors . . . 12
Spotting Strong Industries in a Weak Market . . . 16
Company-Specific Risks . . . 17
Company-Specific Risks Described in Subsequent Chapters . . . 20
Summary . . . 23
Chapter 3 Screening . . . 25
Morningstar . . . 26
Google . . . 26
Zacks . . . 27
Portfolio123 . . . 27
Google Growth Screen . . . 28
Zacks Growth/Momentum Screen . . . 31
Portfolio123 Down & Out Value Stock Finder . . . 34
Portfolio123 Growth Stock Screen . . . 38
Zacks’ Bulletproof Stocks . . . 41
The Zen of Screening . . . 44
Premade Screens . . . 44
Summary . . . 45
PART II ANALYSIS TOOLS . . . 47
Chapter 4 Analysis Tool #1: Analyze Analysts’ Data . . . 49
Who Are the Analysts? . . . 50
Analysts’ Ratings . . . 51
“Sell” Is a Four-Letter Word . . . 51
Consensus Ratings . . . 53
Do Strong Buys Outperform Sells? . . . 54
Number of Analysts . . . 58
Sentiment Index . . . 59
Analysts’ Estimates . . . 61
Earnings Surprise . . . 66
Sales Forecasts . . . 67
Guidance Changes . . . 69
Research Reports . . . 69
Summary . . . 70
Chapter 5 Analysis Tool #2: Valuation . . . 71
Implied Growth . . . 72
Growth at a Reasonable Price . . . 76
Dividends . . . 80
Summary . . . 80
Chapter 6 Analysis Tool #3: Establish Target Prices . . . 81
The Process . . . 82
Summary . . . 90
Chapter 7 Analysis Tool #4: Industry Analysis . . . 91
The Business . . . 91
Industry Growth Outlook . . . 92
Analysts’ Forecasts Are Good Enough . . . 93
Convert Earnings Growth to Sales Growth . . . 93
Industry Concentration . . . 96
Picking Winners in an Emerging Fragmented Industry . . . 97
Industry Scuttlebutt . . . 101
Summary . . . 102
Chapter 8 Analysis Tool #5: Business Plan Analysis . . . 103
Introduction . . . 104
Overblown Competitive Advantages: Factors That Should Make a Difference But Often Don’t . . . 113
Business Plan Scorecard . . . 115
Summary . . . 115
Chapter 9 Analysis Tool #6: Evaluate Management Quality . . . 117
Key Executive and Board Quality . . . 117
Clean Accounting . . . 118
Earnings Growth Stability . . . 120
Stock Ownership . . . 122
Summary . . . 122
Chapter 10 Analysis Tool #7: Analyze Financial Fitness . . . 123
Financial Fitness Counts . . . 123
Pinpointing Financially Challenged Companies . . . 124
Simplify the Problem . . . 125
Detecting Potential Busted Cash Burners . . . 27
Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam . . . 136
Bond Ratings . . . 150
Use Bond Prices to Identify Risky Debtors . . . 152
Summary . . . 153
Chapter 11 Analysis Tool #8: Profitability and Growth Analysis . . . 155
Where Do Earnings Come From? . . . 155
Analyzing Sales (Revenue) History . . . 161
Analyzing Margins . . . 166
Comparing Margins . . . 167
High Versus Low Margins . . . 172
Analyzing Overhead Expenses . . . 174
Profitability Ratios . . . 175
Cash Flow Analysis . . . 182
EBITDA Versus Operating Cash Flow . . . 189
Summary . . . 190
Chapter 12 Analysis Tool #9: Detect Red Flags . . . 191
Sales Growth Trends . . . 193
Accounts Receivables and Inventories . . . 197
Statement of Cash Flows . . . 204
Yellow Flags . . . 209
Summary . . . 212
Chapter 13 Analysis Tool #10: Ownership Considerations . . . 215
Institutional Ownership . . . 215
Insider Ownership . . . 218
Summary . . . 221
Chapter 14 Analysis Tool #11: Price Charts . . . 223
Trends . . . 223
Moving Averages . . . 225
Value Investors . . . 225
Growth Investors . . . 226
Avoid Downtrends . . . 227
Compare Short- and Long-Term Moving Averages . . . 227
The Risk Zone . . . 228
Chart Types . . . 229
Trading Volume . . . 230
Summary . . . 230
PART III THE ANALYSIS PROCESS . . . 231
Chapter 15 Quick Prequalify . . . 233
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 233
Company Overview . . . 234
Valuation Ratios . . . 238
Real Revenues + Real Earnings + Real Growth = Real Stock . . . 241
Check the Buzz . . . 243
Summary . . . 244
Chapter 16 The Value Investing Process . . . 245
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 245
Cycles . . . 247
Normalizing . . . 248
The Value Analysis Process . . . 248
When to Sell . . . 271
Summary . . . 273
Chapter 17 The Growth Investing Process . . . 275
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 275
Growth Candidates . . . 278
The Process . . . 278
When to Sell . . . 315
Summary . . . 317
Chapter 18 Analysis Scorecards . . . 319
Value Stock Analysis Scorecard . . . 320
Growth Stock Analysis Scorecard . . . 326
PART IV APPENDIXES . . . 333
Appendix A Industry Information . . . 335
Appendix B Economic Data . . . 341
Appendix C Earnings Reports and Conference Calls . . . 343
Reported Earnings . . . 344
Summary . . . 346
Appendix D Detecting Scams, Frauds, and Pump and Dump . . . 347
Summary . . . 350
Appendix E How to Read Financial Statements . . . 351
Income Statement . . . 352
Balance Sheet . . . 353
Statement of Cash Flows . . . 355
Finding the Data . . . 357
Pro Forma Accounting Versus GAAP . . . 358
Appendix F Glossary . . . 359
Index . . . 367
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 11.12.2009 |
|---|---|
| Verlagsort | Upper Saddle River |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Maße | 153 x 228 mm |
| Gewicht | 540 g |
| Themenwelt | Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung |
| ISBN-10 | 0-13-701023-0 / 0137010230 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-13-701023-3 / 9780137010233 |
| Zustand | Neuware |
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