Wildlife Demography (eBook)

Front cover 1
Title page 4
Copyright page 5
Table of contents 6
Foreword 12
Preface 16
1 Introduction 20
1.1 Historical Perspectives and Current Needs 20
1.2 Scope of Book 22
2 Primer on Wildlife Population Dynamics 30
2.1 Introduction 30
2.2 Continuous Time Models 31
2.3 Discrete Time Models 33
2.4 Logistic Population Growth 34
2.5 Age Structure Models 45
2.6 Stage Structure Models 54
2.7 Harvest Management Theory 56
2.7.1 Annual Surplus Model 58
2.7.2 Sustained Yield Model 62
2.8 Summary 66
3 Estimating Population Sex Ratios 68
3.1 Introduction 68
3.1.1 Statistical Notation 69
3.1.2 Alternative Definitions of Sex Ratio 70
3.1.3 Direct Versus Indirect Methods of Estimating Sex Ratios 71
3.2 Direct Sampling Techniques 71
3.2.1 Single Sample Survey without Replacement 71
3.2.2 Single Sample Survey with Replacement 74
3.2.3 Multiple Samples with Replacement 78
3.2.4 Stratified Random Sampling 81
3.2.5 Unequal Detection Probabilities among Sexes 84
3.2.6 Cluster Sampling Methods 85
3.3 Indirect Methods of Estimating Sex Ratios 88
3.3.1 Sampling without Replacement 89
3.3.2 Sampling with Replacement 93
3.3.3 Juvenile Sex Ratio . 1 94
3.4 Sex Ratio Projections Based on Survival and Harvest Rates 95
3.4.1 Constant Annual Survival for All Age Classes 96
3.4.2 Unique Juvenile Survival Probabilities 102
3.4.3 Unique Juvenile, Subadult, and Adult Survival Probabilities 103
3.4.4 Juvenile Sex Ratio . 1:1 103
3.5 Summary 104
4 Estimating Productivity 108
4.1 Introduction 108
4.1.1 Standard Notation 111
4.1.2 Alternative Definitions of Productivity Measures 111
4.1.3 Direct Versus Indirect Methods of Estimating Productivity 112
4.2 Direct Sampling Techniques 113
4.2.1 Single Survey 113
4.2.2 Repeated Surveys 114
4.2.3 Productivity Adjusted for Breeding Success 116
4.2.4 Productivity Adjustment for Renesting 117
4.2.5 Estimating Nesting Success: Mayfield (1975) Method 121
4.3 Estimating Productivity from Sex and Age Ratios 124
4.3.1 Stokes (1954)–Hanson (1963) Method 124
4.3.2 Generalized Stokes (1954)–Hanson (1963) Method 128
4.3.3 Dale (1952)–Stokes (1954) Method 133
4.3.4 Generalized Dale (1952)–Stokes (1954) Method 140
4.4 Summary 144
5 Estimating Survival 148
5.1 Introduction 149
5.2 Basic Concepts and Notation 149
5.2.1 Basic Concepts 149
5.2.2 Notation 152
5.3 Survival Curve Analysis 152
5.3.1 Kaplan-Meier (1958) or Product-Limit Estimator 152
5.3.2 Nelson (1972)–Aalen (1978) Estimator 155
5.3.3 Nonparametric Test for Comparing Survival Curves 158
5.3.4 Parametric Survival Curve Analysis 160
5.4 Horizontal Life Tables 169
5.4.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis . 170
5.4.2 Constant Survival Across Age Classes 174
5.5 Vertical Life Tables 178
5.5.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis 179
5.5.2 Estimating Survival with Truncated Age Classes 187
5.5.3 Vertical Life Table with Constrained Survival 187
5.6 Depositional Life Tables 188
5.6.1 Standard Life-Table Analysis 189
5.6.2 Nonstationary Populations: Udevitz and Ballachey 191
5.7 lx-Series Data with Abbreviated or Pooled Age Classes 196
5.7.1 Hayne and Eberhardt (1952) 196
5.7.2 Modified Hayne and Eberhardt (1952) for Unequal Juvenile Survival 198
5.7.3 Modified Hayne and Eberhardt (1952) Pooling Older Age Age Classes 200
5.7.4 Modified Hayne and Eberthardt (1952) with Pooled Age Classes and Unique Juvenile Survival 202
5.7.5 Heincke (1913) and Burgoyne (1981) 204
5.8 cx-Series Data with Abbreviated or Pooled Age Classes 206
5.8.1 cx-Series with the First Three Age Classes 206
5.8.2 Older Age Classes Pooled 209
5.9 Catch-Curve Analyses 212
5.9.1 Estimating Survival Using All Age Classes (Chapman and Robson 1960) 212
5.9.2 Survival Estimation with Older Age Classes Pooled (Robson and Chapman 1961) 216
5.9.3 Estimator for Left- and Right-Truncated Data: Chapman and Robson (1960) and Robson and Chapman (1961) 218
5.10 Regression Techniques 224
5.10.1 Regression on Age-Structure Data 224
5.10.2 Regression on Abundance Estimates 229
5.11 Estimating Juvenile Survival 230
5.11.1 Two-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods of Hanson (1963) and Paulik and Robson (1969) 231
5.11.2 Three-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods of Selleck and Hart (1957) and White et al. (1996) 235
5.11.3 Life-History Methods of Keith and Windberg (1978) 240
5.12 Discussion 244
6 Estimating Harvest and Harvest Mortality 248
6.1 Introduction 248
6.2 Analysis of Harvest Records 249
6.2.1 Locker and Field Checks 250
6.2.2 Random Sample of Hunter Responses 252
6.2.3 Resampling for Nonresponse 257
6.3 Estimating Harvest by Area 263
6.3.1 Common Reporting and Success Probabilities (White 1993) 264
6.3.2 Unique Reporting and Success Probabilities 269
6.4 Direct Estimation of Harvest Mortality 274
6.5 Estimating Harvest Mortality from Sex Ratios 275
6.6 Change-in-Ratio Methods 278
6.6.1 Two-Sample Change-in-Ratio Methods (Paulik and Robson 1969) 278
6.6.2 Three-Sample Change-in-Ratio Method (Selleck and Hart 1957) 282
6.7 Index-Removal Method: Petrides (1949) and Eberhardt (1982) 288
6.8 Catch-Effort Methods 292
6.8.1 Successive Sex Ratios: Paloheimo and Fraser (1981) 292
6.8.2 Age-at-Harvest Data: Paloheimo and Fraser (1981), Harris and Metzgar (1987) 297
6.9 Proportion of Mortality Owing to Harvest (Gulland 1955) 302
6.10 Summary 305
7 Estimating the Rate of Population Change 308
7.1 Introduction 308
7.2 Basic Concepts and Definitions 310
7.3 Two-Sample Methods for Estimating r and . 313
7.4 Exponential-Growth Models 316
7.4.1 Nonlinear Regression for Estimating r or . 316
7.4.2 Log-Linear Regression for Estimating r 320
7.4.3 Ratio Estimators for . 322
7.4.4 Time-Series Analysis of . 325
7.5 Logistic-Growth Models 333
7.6 Growth Models with Removals 341
7.6.1 Exponential-Growth Models 341
7.6.2 Accounting for Missing Abundance Values 344
7.6.3 Logistic-Growth Models 345
7.7 Productivity-Based Estimator of . (Kelker 1947) 347
7.8 Estimating . Using the Lotka Equation (Cole 1954) 349
7.8.1 General Expression 349
7.8.2 Evaluation of Average Fecundity (Henny et al. 1970) 354
7.8.3 Special Case: Two Age Classes (Henny et al. 1970, Cowardin and Johnson 1979) 357
7.8.4 Special Case: Two Age Classes with Harvest 359
7.8.5 Special Case: Three Age Classes 359
7.8.6 Special Case: Four Age Classes 362
7.8.7 General Case 363
7.9 Estimating . from a Leslie Matrix (Bernardelli 1941, Leslie 1945, 1948) 364
7.10 Summary 374
8 Analysis of Population Indices 378
8.1 Introduction 378
8.1.1 Relationship between Indices and Abundance 380
8.1.2 Basic Sampling Methods 381
8.2 Description of Common Indices 393
8.2.1 Pellet Counts 394
8.2.2 Frequency Index 397
8.2.3 Auditory Counts 400
8.2.4 Visual Counts 404
8.2.5 Catch-per-Unit Effort 408
8.2.6 Trap-Line Counts 412
8.2.7 Mark-Recapture Estimates as Indices 413
8.3 Design of Index Studies 414
8.3.1 Latin-Square Designs 415
8.3.2 Randomized Block Designs 419
8.4 Calibration of Indices 422
8.4.1 Index-Removal Method: Petrides (1949) and Eberhardt (1982) 422
8.4.2 Intercalibrating Two Indices 425
8.4.3 Ratio Estimators 426
8.4.4 Regression Estimators 428
8.4.5 Double Sampling for Ratios 432
8.4.6 Double Sampling for Regression 436
8.5 Analysis of Index Studies 441
8.5.1 Example: Forest Birds, New South Wales, Australia 442
8.5.2 Example: Deer Trail Counts, Wisconsin 445
8.5.3 Example: Dall Sheep (Ovis dalli) Aerial Counts, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska 447
8.5.4 Example: White-Tailed Deer Pellet Counts, George Reserve, Michigan 449
8.6 Summary 451
9 Estimating Population Abundance 454
9.1 Introduction 455
9.2 Visual Surveys 455
9.2.1 Strip Transects 456
9.2.2 Bounded Counts: Robson and Whitlock (1964), Regier and Robson (1967) 459
9.2.3 Binomial Method-of-Moments (Overton 1969) 460
9.2.4 Sightability Models 463
9.2.5 Sight-Resight Method 470
9.3 Line Transects 474
9.3.1 Fixed-Distance Methods 475
9.3.2 Right-Angle Distance Methods 480
9.4 Index-Removal Method (Petrides 1949, Eberhardt 1982) 484
9.5 Change-in-Ratio Methods 485
9.5.1 Two-Class Model 486
9.5.2 Three or More Classes 490
9.5.3 Sequential Change-in-Ratio 492
9.6 Catch-Effort Methods 494
9.6.1 Maximum Likelihood Model 495
9.6.2 Leslie and Davis (1939) Method 498
9.6.3 DeLury (1947, 1951) Method 501
9.6.4 Constant Effort Removal Technique (Zippin 1956, 1958) 505
9.7 Life-History Models 515
9.7.1 Sex-Age-Kill Model 516
9.7.2 SAK-MLE Model 521
9.7.3 Duck Nest Survey Model 526
9.8 Age-Structured Population Reconstruction Methods 528
9.8.1 Virtual Population Analysis (Fry 1949, 1957) 530
9.8.2 Virtual Population Analysis (Gulland 1965) 535
9.8.3 Cohort Analysis (Pope 1972) 541
9.8.4 Discrete-Time Virtual Population Analysis (Fryxell et al. 1988) 545
9.8.5 Statistical Age-at-Harvest Analysis (Gove et al. 2002) 547
9.9 Summary 556
10 Integration of Analytical Techniques 560
10.1 Introduction and Purpose 560
10.2 Management for Desired Sex Ratios of Elk 561
10.3 Combining Field Results with Leslie Matrix Projections 566
10.4 Comparing and Combining Time- and Cohort-Specific Survival 570
10.5 A Bighorn Sheep Life-History-Based Abundance Estimator 574
10.6 Partitioning Harvest and Natural Mortality 579
10.7 Ring-Necked Pheasant Multisurvey Study 581
Appendix A: Statistical Concepts and Theory 584
Appendix B: Glossary of Symbols 594
Appendix C: Program USER 598
Appendix D: Mathematica Code for Calculating the Variance of the Finite Rate of Population Change, Var(.), from a Matrix Population Model 610
References 618
Index 648