Forest Products and Bioenergy

1. Introduction. 1.1 Why the topic of the book is important? 1.2 General overview on the different goods and services forests provide. 1.3 State that the focus in the book is in the forest products and bioenergy markets, and the implications to the forest sectors of the 4 countries. 1.4 Current state of the global forest sector (general trends). Synthesis of the existing outlook studies and trends. 1.5 Points to similar development and challenges in Nordic Countries and North America. They seek to react to the challenges partly in similar manner (efforts related to the research & technology programs), but on the other hand, partly applying different strategies. 1.6 Points to the lack of similar studies. 1.7 Outlines the content of the book.- 2. Driving Forces Shaping the Future. 2.1 Comment why the existing outlook (trend) studies may not capture all the relevant aspects (e.g. trends work badly when structural changes). 2.2 Outlines the central driving forces that shape the world in the next 10 to 20 years, and that have important implications to the global forest sector, and therefore, to the forest sectors of the 4 countries. 2.3 We identify the following as major driving forces: (i) globalization, (ii) economic factors, (iii) consumer preferences (societal values), (iv) technological development, (v) energy and climate change, (vi) research policy. These driving forces are interlinked and in practice it may be difficult to separate them. However, for expositional purposes, and in order to be able to focus the analysis, it is helpful to use this taxonomy. 2.4 Analyze the likely future trends in these driving forces in the next 20 years. The analysis is based on existing literature, on interviews, and seminars with experts, researchers, and people working in the sector. 2.5 Discuss why these driving forces are also important for the global forest sector, and illustrate in short the potential implications in this sector.- 3. Forest Products Markets and the Industry. 3.1 Forest industry development in the 4 countries. Current status and the general outlook. What are the major changes taking place, and what are the implications for the forest sector in the 4 countries? (Hetemaki, Sedjo, Seppala and Lonnstedt) (app. 15 p.) 3.2 Printing and writing paper. What is the current status of printing and writing paper industry in North America and Nordic Countries. What type of structural changes, if any, are taking place? What are the possibilities for new value added printing and writing paper products in the next 10-20 yrs? What is the outlook for printing and writing paper products in Nordic Countries and North America in the next 10-20 yrs? What are the strategies by which the development of the industry can be enhanced in Nordic Countries and North America? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the industry in Nordic Countries and North America vs. other regions? (Hetemaki looks at the Nordic Countries and general development, Sedjo can add on the North American setting) (app. 20 p.). 3.3 Packaging and board. What is the current status of packaging and board industry in North America and Nordic Countries. What type of structural changes, if any, are taking place? What are the possibilities for new value added packaging and board products in the next 10-20 yrs? What is the outlook for packaging and board products in Nordic Countries and North America in the next 10-20 yrs? What are the strategies by which the development of the industry can be enhanced in Nordic Countries and North America? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the industry in Nordic Countries and North America vs. other regions? (Ince looks at the North America and general development, ?? add on the Nordic setting) (app. 15 p.). 3.4 Tissue papers. What is the current status of tissue paper industry in North America and Nordic Countries. What type of structural changes, if any, are taking place? What are the possibilities for new value added tissue paper products in the next 10-20 yrs? What is the outlook for tissue paper products in Nordic Countries and North America in the next 10-20 yrs? What are the strategies by which the development of the industry can be enhanced in Nordic Countries and North America? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the industry in Nordic Countries and North America vs. other regions? (??) (app. 10 p.). 3.5 Wood products. What is the current status of wood products industry in North America and Nordic Countries. What type of structural change, if any, are taking place? What are the possibilities for new value added wood products in the next 10-20 yrs? What is the outlook for wood products in Nordic Countries and North America in the next 10-20 yrs? What are the strategies by which the development of the industry can be enhanced in Nordic Countries and North America? What are the comparative advantages and disadvantages of the industry in Nordic Countries and North America vs. other regions? (Thomas Mannes, Robert Kozak look at the North American setting, Anne Toppinen & Riitta Hanninen on the Nordic Countries) (app. 30 p.).- 4. Bioenergy. 4.1 Bioenergy is already today an important part of the forest sector in the countries considered, specially in Finland and Sweden. For example, of the total energy consumption in Finland, about 20% is based on wood (mainly on black liquor, bark, sawdust). Due to the changing operating environment and the driving forces related to energy and climate change, the outlook for the future is an increasing utilization of the present form of wood energy, as well as new technologies and processes (e.g. biorefinery). As a result, bioenergy will play ever increasing role in the forest sector, having important implications to the development of the forest sectors in the 4 countries. 4.2 Wood based bioenergy today. Current status in the 4 countries. 4.3 What are the various impacts of bioenergy to forest sector? 4.4 What drives forest bioenergy in the future? What are the future possibilities? How does it change the forest sector?4.5 Biorefinery. What it is? What are the prospects and impacts? 4.6 How does the development differ between the countries?.- 5. Woodfibre Markets. 5.1 Current status of woodfibre markets in the 4 countries 5.2 Demand and supply of woodfibre (chp. 3,4,5 are very much interlinked!). How the changes in forest industry markets and production, and the bioenergy development, is impacting the wood fibre markets? 5.3 Summarize the recent major existing outlook studies. 5.4 Quantitative analysis is supplemented by qualitative analytical comments. 5.5 Implications to Canada, Finland, Sweden and USA.- 6. Implications for Research and Development. 6.1 What is the current status of the forest sector R&D in the 4 countries? 6.2 What is the future outlook? 6.3 What are the similarities and differences in the technology programs and strategies in the 4 countries (USA: Agenda 2020; Canada: Forest Science Policy Forum on Transformative Technologies; Sweden: National Research Agenda (NRA) - for the Swedish forest-based sector; Finland: Research Strategy for the Finnish Forest Cluster). Critical assessment of the programmes. 6.4 Implications to Canada, Finland, Sweden and USA.- 7. Policy implications. 7.1 What is the current status of forest policy in the 4 countries? 7.2 What are the implications of the analysis from this book? 7.3 What are the possible strategies that could be targeted by policy?.- 8. Conclusions. 8.1 Summary and implications. 8.2 Important open questions.-