Introduction

Why energy?

The main uses of energy are heating and transportation. Energy can be generated from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, hydroelectricity, biomass and renewable sources (wind, solar, etc.). The total global energy consumption (including firewood) reached 15 billion tons of oil equivalent (France consumes around 260 million tons of oil equivalent). Roughly speaking, nearly 20% of the energy is used for transportation, and nearly 80% of it, in various forms, is used for heat generation (for residential uses – heating, cooking, air conditioning – and for industrial uses, as well as for electric power generation).

To a large extent, the needs of the transportation sector are still met by oil products, but the energy transition is leading to a rapid development of electrical vehicles. Oil products have two advantages: they are liquid, and therefore easily accessible, and they have a high energy density. Filling a tank with gasoline or diesel fuel at the gas station takes two or three minutes, and provides autonomy for several hundred kilometers. Charging the batteries of an electric vehicle or filling the tanks with compressed gas takes a longer time. However, because of the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, searching for alternatives to fuel petroleum products is essential.

Heat can be generated from all the types of energy. In some cases, in order to limit the emissions of polluting products, less polluting fuels are chosen, such as gas or light petroleum products. In many cases, the choice will be dictated by practical and economic reasons (e.g. coal is no longer used as fuel for residential heating because it is much easier to use heating oil and natural gas).

Brief historical review of energy uses

Due to scarce resources, energy consumption was at a low level until the 18th century. Energy was essentially generated by human force, animal force, watermills and windmills, and the energy released by wood combustion. Industrial development, whose needs exceeded the limited wood resources, led to the invention of the steam engine fueled with coal. Oil was discovered around 1860, but it had no significant use prior to the first decades of the 20th century (invention of heat engines, gasoline or diesel fuel engines, massive use of fuel oil after 1945). Nuclear energy came next. Wind and solar energy became significant in the 21st century.

Starting in 1945, there was a huge increase in energy consumption. Until 2000, this increase was concentrated in industrialized countries – members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which included until 1990 the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Island, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey). At the end of the 20th century, the population of these countries counted 1 billion (the global population being 6 billion) people, but accounted for half of the global energy consumption. This trend was reversed by the rapid development of China and the progress of other emerging countries. Countries outside OECD now account for 70% of the global energy demand.

Energy and climate change

Global warming and the resulting climate change have been a major concern for several years. Already mentioned in the preface to the book Géopolitique de l’énergie published in 2007, of which this book is a continuation, climate change has become an undeniable reality. Most of the past few years have been the hottest ever observed since the beginning of meteorological records. In the summer of 2021, temperatures exceeded 50°C in Eastern Canada. California and Australia experienced extremely long periods of drought that led to rarely seen fires.

Global warming has now been accepted as a reality by all scientists, and only some conspiracy theorists are denying this reality. The works of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are no longer disputed. Only the magnitude of the consequences of climate change is still under debate.

Rising temperatures are obviously due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions that retain the heat which is normally reemitted to the space (in the absence of greenhouse gases, Earth’s temperature would be –18°C). Also, energy is to a large extent responsible for these emissions. We use various sources of energy: wind energy, solar energy, hydraulic energy, nuclear energy, etc., but the main part of our energy consumption relies on fossil fuels – oil, coal and natural gas – representing about 80% of our total consumption. However, these energies are obtained from carbon-based fuels whose combustion generates heat, and carbon is then transformed into carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas. Methane (natural gas consists mainly of methane), another significant greenhouse gas, results essentially from gas leakages during the production or transportation of the natural gas we use.

The capacity of some gases to retain heat, and to possibly cause an increase in the Earth’s temperature, had been identified since the 19th century by some scientists. However, it was only at the end of the 20th century that this phenomenon was effectively acknowledged and its effects were measured. The first Earth Summit was held in Stockholm in 1972, and resulted in the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme. It touched on climate. But the third Summit, which was held in Rio in 1992 (also known as the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development), led to the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The signatory countries of this convention have been meeting annually ever since. The Kyoto Protocol, which established the policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, was signed in 1997. The Johannesburg Summit was held in 1992, and on this occasion the French president declared: “Our house is burning, but we are looking the other way”. These various conferences have been important steps in the attempt to limit the effects of climate change.

Abundant energy?

Throughout history, energy has in fact been abundant, despite persistent fears of shortages. In the 1920s, the United States feared oil shortages. Significant discoveries on the American territory, then in the Middle East, put these fears to rest. Concerns were revived in 1970, when oil reserves were assumed to cover only 30 years of consumption. This prognosis undoubtedly inspired the Club of Rome to elaborate the famous report entitled “The limits to growth”, the first warning of a possible shortage of energy, mining and even food resources. Without embracing an overly optimistic perspective, it is important to mention that at that moment oil reserves were estimated at about 75 billion tons, while in 2022 they were estimated at 250 billion tons.

The situation changed at the beginning of this century.

Energy is now scarce and expensive

At the end of the 20th century, energy seemed still abundant and was therefore cheap. Oil, gas and coal reserves seemed significant. Oil price dropped to $10 per barrel by the end of 1998.

From 2000 to 2008 (the year of a major financial crisis), global economic growth was very strong (especially due to China’s economic boom) and the prices of widely dominant fossil energies increased significantly. Oil prices reached $147 per barrel in 2008, then dropped and rapidly reached high levels after 2010.

The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States was a game changer. Started a little before 2010, this revolution produced its full effects by 2014 (virtually nonexistent before 2010, shale oil production represented over 5% of global oil production in 2014). Prices remained relatively low, especially because of the Covid-19 pandemic, but increased sharply in 2021 due to the economic recovery.

What about the future?

There is a proven link between economic growth and increasing energy demand. For a long time, and especially during the “thirty glorious years” (1945–1975), the rate of energy consumption followed that of wealth (measured by the GNP). The current rate of energy consumption is lower than that of wealth. At the beginning of the 1980s, the tenfold increase in oil price was followed by a significant drop in oil demand and a reduction in the global demand for energy, while wealth increased.

The population growth (which should pass from 7.5 to 9 and even 10 billion people by 2050) and the increase in average living standards (recently reaching spectacular levels in Asia) should lead to an increase in energy demand. According to the most conservative scenarios, which rely on reduced economic growth to limit polluting emissions, there will be about a 30% increase by 2050.

According to other scenarios, in which the current tendencies will continue, there will be a twofold increase in demand. Two recognized organizations, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Department of Energy (DOE), expect a strong increase in energy demand by 2030. This can be readily explained: economic growth is needed to reduce unemployment in developed countries and poverty in emerging countries. Also, economic growth requires energy.

Two constraints should lead us to modify our policies:

• by 2050, an inevitable...