Geopolitics and Energy Transition 1

Jean-Pierre Favennec is a professor at Paris Dauphine University, France, as well as a consultant and energy specialist. He has published several books and articles on energy economics and geopolitics.

Foreword to Géopolitique de l'énergie Published in 2008 — A Tribute to Jean-Marie Chevalier xi

Introduction xv

Chapter 1. Different Forms of Energy 1

1.1. Energy at the heart of the development of civilization 1

1.2. Energy: major stages and innovations in its history 2

1.3. Energy demand 3

1.4. 2020: Covid-19's impact on energy demand 5

1.5. Drivers of energy demand: wealth 5

1.6. Different forms of energy 8

1.7. The laws of energy 10

1.8. Electricity 13

1.9. Renewable energy 23

1.10. Oil: the reference energy 24

1.11. From oil exploration to oil marketing 28

1.12. Natural gas 38

1.13. Coal 42

1.14. Conclusion 45

Chapter 2. The Energy Transition 47

2.1. Defining the energy transition 47

2.2. Why do we need an energy transition? 48

2.3. The main ways of combating climate change 50

2.4. The challenges facing renewable energies 63

2.5. The hydrogen solution 65

2.6. Is the energy transition possible? 66

2.7. Energy and sociology 72

2.8. International oil companies: "Beyond Petroleum 73

2.9. Conclusion 73

Chapter 3. Energy Markets and Prices: Situation and Outlook 75

3.1. Introduction: markets and prices 75

3.2. An introduction to the electricity market 77

3.3. An introduction to the gas market 77

3.4. The first gas and electricity companies 78

3.5. The rise of interventionism after World War II 79

3.6. The 1970s: the resource issue and the economic crisis 80

3.7. The example of the UK energy sector 81

3.8. The example of the US energy sector 82

3.9. Towards a single electricity market in the European Union 83

3.10. Characteristics of electricity markets 85

3.11. Wholesale and retail electricity market 86

3.12. The electricity business 87

3.13. The price of electricity 87

3.14. The role of renewable energies in electricity markets 89

3.15. Historical trends in oil prices — price control by the majors and OPEC 89

3.16. Historical trends in oil prices: end of the 20th century 92

3.17. Historical trends in oil prices: 2000-2014 93

3.18. Historical trends in oil prices since 2014 96

3.19. The impact of oil prices on demand 98

3.20. High oil prices: how do they affect supply? 99

3.21. Who will make the necessary investments in exploration and production? 100

3.22. Prices of petroleum products 102

3.23. Pump price: taxes on petroleum products 103

3.24. Oil and taxation 104

3.25. Price of natural gas 106

3.26. Price of coal 109

3.27. The uranium market 109

3.28. Oil reserves 110

3.29. Unconventional oil reserves 113

3.30. Concentration of hydrocarbon reserves 115

3.31. Conquest of the Arctic 116

3.32. Exploitation of the seabed's soil and subsoil resources 117

3.33. Natural gas reserves 117

3.34. Coal reserves 118

3.35. Uranium reserves 118

3.36. Future energy needs 119

3.37. Pollution issues 121

3.38. Accidents 124

3.39. Conclusion: an uncertain outlook; future energy needs 131

Chapter 4. Structure of the Energy Industries: Security of Supply 133

4.1. Introduction 133

4.2. Natural monopolies and effects of size 133

4.3. The petroleum industry: international oil companies and national oil companies 134

4.4. The oil industry: post-war years and the creation of OPEC 136

4.5. Nationalization in oil-producing countries 136

4.6. The years 1980-1990: OPEC's loss of power — members' interests diverge 137

4.7. Back to liberalism 138

4.8. Situation in developing countries 139

4.9. Ethics and energy 140

4.10. Other often forgotten players 141

4.11. Evolving strategies . 144

4.12. Energy policies and security of supplies 144

4.13. Supply security: solutions offered by the market 146

4.14. How to improve supply security 146

4.15. Means of supply 149

4.16. Coal 158

4.17. Threats to energy supplies: the risk of physical failure of transport networks 158

4.18. Securing hydrocarbon supplies militarily 162

4.19. Strategic stocks 165

4.20. The energy transition and its strategic challenges 170

4.20.1. Rare and critical materials 170

4.20.2. Technology 171

4.21. Conclusion 172

References 173

Index 177