Epidemic Risk Analysis and Assessment in Transport Services

This methodology for assessing the hazards, and probability and risks of viral transmission on public and freight transport services, based on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, gives a matrix of hazard assessment in transportation, and tools for estimating the probability of virus transmission, prevention costs, epidemic risk, and forecasting.

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"Accurate and fully explicit mathematical models and derivations make the proposed method truly universal irrespective of the geographical location and the kind of virus epidemic."

Minvydas Ragulskis, Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania

The effects of a pandemic on public, personal and freight transport can be sudden and massive, and yet transport is vital to the functioning of an advanced economy and society. On the other hand, transport, due to social mobility, has a decisive influence on the speed and scope of epidemic spread. This book presents a complete methodology for assessing the hazards, and probability and risks of viral transmission on transport services, using as a detailed example the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. It gives proposals and recommendations for estimating human deaths caused by virus infection in transport. Significantly, it considers not only passenger transport but also freight transport, such as delivery or parcel services. The tools include a matrix of hazard assessment in various transportation services, with a methodology for estimating the probability of virus transmission through both droplets and surface contact. These allow estimation of the effects of infections and consequent epidemic risk in all kinds of transport services, including freight, and provide methods for forecasting and risk management which determine transport safety.

Rafał Burdzik is a professor in the Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering at Silesian University of Technology, Poland, with more than 20 years of transport research experience.