Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification (eBook)

Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 7
Contents 8
Contributors 11
Systems Concepts: Structuring a New Verification Approach 14
1 Introduction 15
2 A Systematic Approach 16
3 Nuclear Weapons Complex 17
4 The Regime Today 19
5 More Pieces of the Puzzle 21
6 Innovative Systems Concepts for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification 22
References 23
Part I Status of Verification Strategies 25
History, Status and Challenges for Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification 26
1 On Verification 26
2 On Verification and Confidence-Building 29
3 On Verification Provisions 30
4 Verification in the Nuclear Field: The Role of Technology and Technological Expertise 32
5 Current Status of Verification Technologies in Arms Control Verification 32
6 Information Barriers: Attributes and Templates 34
7 Fixed and Potentially Movable Constraints 35
8 The Continuing Importance of Progress 35
References 37
The Evolution of Safeguards 38
1 Background 39
2 Early Strengthening Measures 40
3 State Evaluation 41
4 Integrated Safeguards 42
5 Furthering the Development of the State-Level Concept 43
6 The State-Level Concept 44
6.1 Establishment of Safeguards Objectives 44
Acquisition/Diversion Path Analysis to Establish Technical Objectives 46
6.2 Development of a State-Level Safeguards Approach 48
Applicable Safeguards Measures 48
Annual Implementation Plan 48
6.3 State-Specific Factors 49
6.4 Strengthening the State Evaluation Process 50
6.5 Drawing Safeguards Conclusions 50
7 Conclusions 51
References 52
Part II Factors Influencing the Development of a Systems Concept for Verification 53
Legal Issues Relating to Risk and Systems Driven Verification 54
1 Introduction 55
2 Future Verification Missions 56
3 Verification Objectives 57
4 Some Key Legal Considerations 58
4.1 Non-compliance: Standard of Proof 58
4.2 Obligation to Cooperate 59
4.3 Non-discrimination 59
4.4 Use of and Access to Information 60
4.5 Verification Tools: Inspections and Monitoring 62
4.6 Dispute Resolution 65
4.7 Treaty Structure 65
5 Conclusions 68
References 68
Verification: The Politics of the Unpolitical 69
1 Introduction 69
2 Lessons of History Forlorn 70
3 Lessons of History Regained 72
4 The Evolution of Safeguards 73
5 Authority and Authenticity in International Verification 78
6 Verification and Deterrence 81
7 Reconciling International Politics and Verification 85
8 Afterthoughts: The Crisis of Multilateralism 86
References 89
Military Dimensions 91
1 Introduction 91
2 Setting the Scene 94
2.1 Growth of Nuclear Arsenals 94
2.2 Fissile Materials and Technology Control 95
2.3 De-escalation 95
2.4 Proliferation Awareness 96
2.5 Post-NPT Era (1970–1990) 96
2.6 Post-Cold War Era (1990–2010) 97
2.7 Current Context 98
3 Military Dimensions of Nuclear Disarmament 99
3.1 Existing Commitments 99
3.2 A Brief Review of the Components of the Military Dimension 101
4 Conclusions and Future Prospects 104
References 105
Strategic Export Control 107
1 Historical Developments 108
1.1 The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) 108
1.2 The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) 109
2 Strategic Export Control and Nuclear Safeguards 109
3 Addressing Non-nuclear Proliferation 112
3.1 The International Export Control Regime 112
3.2 Other Treaties and Agreements 113
4 An International Legal Basis for Export Control: UNSCR 1540 114
5 The Export Control Process 115
5.1 Control Lists 115
5.2 Other Control Lists 116
5.3 Key Elements of the Export Control Process 117
6 Conclusions and Relevance to Disarmament and Arms Control 118
References 118
Part III Methods and Models 120
NTI Nuclear Security Index: A Model for State-Level Approaches to Nonproliferation and Arms Control 121
1 Introduction 121
2 About the NTI Index: Goals and Methodology 122
2.1 Goals of the NTI Index 122
2.2 NTI Index Methodology 123
3 Applying the NTI Index Methodology to the State-Level Concept 124
3.1 Developing a Framework 124
3.2 Research and Data Gathering 125
3.3 Government Engagement and Outreach 126
3.4 Operational Capacity 127
3.5 Key Differences Between the NTI Index and the State-Level Concept 127
4 Conclusions 128
References 129
Formalizing Acquisition Path Analysis 130
1 Introduction 130
2 The Game-Theoretical Model 131
2.1 Extensive Form 132
2.2 Normal Form 134
2.3 Graph Representation 135
2.4 Equilibrium Multiplicity 136
2.5 Parameters 136
3 A Case Study 139
4 Discussion and Outlook 143
References 144
Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Materials and Activities 145
1 Introduction 145
2 Potential Clandestine Proliferation Paths 146
3 Characteristics of the Data Available to the IAEA 149
3.1 Safeguards Data 150
3.2 Non-safeguards Data 151
4 Development of Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Activities 152
5 Conclusions 156
References 156
Game Theoretical Models for Arms Control and Disarmament Verification 158
1 Introduction 159
2 Unannounced Interim Inspections 160
2.1 Game Theoretical Model 161
2.2 Analysis 165
2.3 Effective and Efficient Inspections 166
2.4 Extensions 168
3 Conclusions: The Art of Modeling 168
References 170
Societal Verification for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control 172
1 Introduction 172
2 Societal Mobilization 174
3 Societal Observation 175
4 Mobilization for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification 176
5 Observation for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification 179
6 Challenges and Considerations 180
7 Conclusions 183
References 184
Part IV Technologies 187
Futures Research as an Opportunity for Innovation in Verification Technologies 188
1 Introduction: Technology Foresight of Verification Techniques 189
2 The Classic Technology-Foresight Approach 191
2.1 Scanning and Monitoring 192
2.2 Cross-Fertilization of Future Technologies 193
3 ``Trend Archaeology'': Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight 193
3.1 The Bibliometric Workflow 194
3.2 The Potential of Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight 198
4 Novel Technological Solutions 199
4.1 Prediction of New Technological Trends with Text/Web Mining and Clustering 199
4.2 Methodology 199
4.3 Case Study 200
5 Including Experts and Practitioners: Participatory Approaches 201
6 Conclusions 202
References 203
Attribute Information Barriers 206
1 Disarmament Verification 207
2 Why an Information Barrier? 208
3 Attribute Approach 208
3.1 Attribute Definition Issues 209
3.2 Measurement Issues 210
4 How to Authenticate Nuclear Warheads? 213
5 When the Light Is Red … 215
References 216
Minimally Intrusive Approaches to Nuclear Warhead Verification 218
1 Background 219
2 Confirming Numerical Limits on Declared Nuclear Warheads 219
3 Confirming the Authenticity of Nuclear Warheads 225
4 Conclusions 230
References 230
Advances in Seismic and Acoustic Monitoring 232
1 Introduction 232
2 Basics of Acoustics and Seismology 234
3 Advances in Teleseismic Monitoring 235
4 Advances in Infrasound Monitoring 237
5 Research for Seismic Monitoring During CTBT On-Site Inspections 238
6 Applications for Peace Keeping and Early Warning 241
7 Research for Safeguards at Underground Final Repositories 243
8 Conclusions 247
References 247
Radiation Detectors and Instrumentation 250
1 Introduction 250
2 Special Nuclear Material Signatures 251
2.1 Uranium Signatures 251
2.2 Plutonium Signatures 253
3 Radiation Detection Monitoring and Verification Techniques 254
3.1 Radiation Pulse Counting 254
3.2 Spectroscopy 255
Gamma Spectroscopy 255
Alpha Spectroscopy 258
Mass Spectrometry 258
3.3 Neutron Detection 259
3.4 Imaging Techniques 260
4 RDE Implementation Challenges 261
4.1 Arms Control Implementation Challenges 261
4.2 General Implementation Challenges 262
5 Conclusions 263
References 265
Environmental Signatures and Forensics 266
1 ``Signatures'' as Source of Information 267
2 Environmental Particle Signatures and Measurements 267
2.1 New Instruments Opening New Avenues: The LG-SIMS 268
2.2 Expanding the Set of Established Signatures in Bulk and Particle Samples 269
3 Nuclear Forensic Signatures 270
3.1 Radiochronometry 273
Age Dating of Plutonium 274
Age Dating of Uranium 275
3.2 Isotope Correlation for Pu Reactor Type Determination 276
4 Confidence in Results 277
5 Synergies Between Safeguards, Non-proliferation and Nuclear Forensics 279
6 Conclusions 281
References 281
Part V Information Analysis 284
Information Management: The Role of Information Technology in Treaty Verification 285
1 Introduction 285
2 Establishing the System Requirements 286
3 Sources of Information 288
4 Data Transmission 289
5 Data Storage and Processing 291
6 Verification System Information Processing 292
7 Data Integrity 294
8 Conclusions 295
References 296
Enhancing Verification with High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics 298
1 Introduction 298
2 Underlying Technologies: From High Performance Computing to Machine Learning 299
2.1 High Performance and Data Intensive Computing 299
2.2 Bringing the Data Together: Machine Learning and Multimodal Semantic Feature Spaces 302
3 Possible Applications 304
4 Next Steps 305
References 305
Open Source Analysis in Support to Non-proliferation: A Systems Thinking Perspective 307
1 Introduction 307
2 What Is Open Source Analysis? 308
3 How Can Open Source Analysis Monitor an Engineering Programme? 309
3.1 Defining the System to be Analyzed: A Systems Thinking Approach 309
3.2 Hard Layers' Observables 310
3.3 Soft Layers' Observables 311
3.4 Taking the Context into Account 314
4 Types of OS Analysis Scenarios for Nuclear Non-proliferation 316
4.1 Puzzle Solving 316
4.2 Data Foraging 317
4.3 Model Building 318
4.4 Mystery Framing 318
5 Conclusions 319
References 320
Geospatial Information and Technologies for International Safeguards Verification 323
1 Introduction 323
2 Geospatial Information and Technologies for Nuclear Safeguards Analysis 325
2.1 Additional Protocol 325
2.2 Satellite Imagery 325
2.3 Open Source Information 326
2.4 Inspection Results 326
2.5 GIS-Based Information Integration and Analysis 326
3 Geospatial Information and Technologies for On-Site Inspections 329
3.1 3D Laser Scanning 329
3.2 Location-Based Services 330
4 Challenges for Applying Geospatial Technologies to Nuclear Safeguards 332
4.1 Information Security 332
4.2 Legacy Infrastructure 332
4.3 Safeguards Culture 332
4.4 Operator Acceptance 333
5 Conclusions 333
References 334
Remote Sensing Data Processing and Analysis Techniques for Nuclear Non-proliferation 336
1 Introduction 336
2 Data Sources 337
2.1 Electro Optical Data 337
2.2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data 338
3 Data Storage Formats 339
4 Pre-processing Remote Sensing Data 340
5 Processing Remote Sensing Data 341
5.1 Enhancements 341
5.2 DEM Generation 342
5.3 Classification 343
5.4 Change Detection 344
6 Conclusion 345
References 346
Commercial Satellite Imagery: An Evolving Tool in the Non-proliferation Verification and Monitoring Toolkit 348
1 Introduction 348
2 The Number of Satellites Is Rapidly Increasing, and Capabilities Are Improving 349
3 Temporal Resolution Improvements: Observing Activity 350
4 Spatial Resolution Improvements: Seeing Greater Detail 352
5 Spectral Resolution Improvements: Seeing Beyond the Visible 352
6 Improvements in Accessibility and Pricing 354
7 Multi-Satellite/Multi-Sensor Data Fusion: Creating Innovation in Verification Applications 356
8 Imagery Analysis Is Critical for Effective Use of Commercial Satellite Imagery 359
9 Advances in 3D Modeling 362
10 Conclusions 364
References 365
Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation 369
1 Introduction 369
2 Reference Lists of Strategic Items 370
3 Data Sources for Trade Analysis 372
4 Mapping Strategic Items to Trade Descriptors 375
5 Use Cases for Strategic Trade Analysis 377
5.1 Micro Views 378
5.2 Macro Views 379
6 Conclusions 383
References 384
Part VI Applications 387
A Systems Approach for Evaluating a Warhead Monitoring System 388
1 Introduction 389
2 Evaluation Methodology 390
2.1 Evaluation Framework 390
2.2 Monitoring Approach Specification 393
2.3 Evaluation: Modeling and Simulations 395
3 Warhead Monitoring Example 396
3.1 Notional Treaty Provisions and Monitoring Approach 396
3.2 Considerations When Applying the Evaluation Framework 398
3.3 Quantitative Evaluation 400
4 Conclusions 404
References 405
Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis: Applicability to Nuclear Disarmament Verification 406
1 Introduction 406
1.1 The Physical Model in IAEA Safeguards 406
1.2 Use of the Physical Model in Acquisition Path Analysis 407
2 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification 409
2.1 Adapted Physical Model 409
2.2 Pathways Analysis 411
3 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification 418
4 Application for Biological Weapons 418
5 Conclusion 419
References 420
Investigating Development of Nuclear Arms Control Verification: Requirements at the State Level 421
1 Introduction 422
2 Applying Systems Level Analysis to Arms Control 423
3 Exercise One 424
3.1 State Strategic Security Objectives 424
3.2 Verification Objectives 425
3.3 Acquisition Pathways 426
3.4 Pathway Attractiveness 427
3.5 Detection Goals 429
3.6 Verification Priorities 430
3.7 Technical Verification Measures 433
4 Exercise Two 439
5 Lessons Learned 440
Appendix: Fictitious States of Trenzalia and Azaria and Model Treaties 442
Exercise One 442
Exercise Two 445
References 449