Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making

Koller, Glenn

Introduction. Two Approaches to Solving Decision Trees-a Class-Action Suit Example. Terrorism Risk Models-Relative and Absolute Risk. Gathering Information Consistently in an Inconsistent World. New Manufacturing Facility- Business-Justification Model. Oil-Field-Development Investment-Opportunity Risk Model. Using Chance of Failure and Risk-Weighted values to Reflect the Effect of "Soft" Issues on the Value of an Opportunity. Production-Sharing Agreement Risk Model. Scheduling and Optimization Risk Model. Decision/Option-Selection Risk Model. Risk Process to Identify Business Drivers, Maximize Value, and Determine the Value of Potential Expenditures. Summary. Building a Consensus Model. Building a Contributing-Factor Diagram. Monte Carlo Analysis. Decisions and Distributions. Chance of Failure. Time Series Analysis and Dependence. Risk-Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis