Arctic Sea Ice Decline (eBook)

Eric T. DeWeaver is the editor of Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, published by Wiley. Cecilia M. Bitz is an American climatologist known for her research on sea ice and high latitude climate change. She is a professor in the Atmospheric Sciences Department, as well as the director of the Program on Climate Change at the University of Washington.

Preface

Eric T. DeWeaver, Cecilia M. Bitz, and L.-Bruno Tremblay
vii

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Introduction

Eric T. DeWeaver 1

Section I: Arctic Sea Ice in the Instrumented and
Paleo-Proxy Records

Recent Trends in Arctic Sea Ice and the Evolving Role of
Atmospheric Circulation Forcing, 1979-2007

Clara Deser and Haiyan Teng 7

Reconstructing Sea Ice Conditions in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic
Prior to Human Observations

Anne de Vernal, Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Sandrine Solignac,
Taoufik Radi, and André Rochon 27

Section II: Factors in Sea Ice Sensitivity

Arctic Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing From Observations
and Their Role in Sea Ice Decline Predicted by the NCAR CCSM3 Model
During the 21st Century

Irina V. Gorodetskaya and L.-Bruno Tremblay 47

Some Aspects of Uncertainty in Predicting Sea Ice Thinning

Cecilia M. Bitz 63

Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness to Intermodel Variations
in the Surface Energy Budget

Eric T. DeWeaver, Elizabeth C. Hunke, and Marika M. Holland
77

The Atmospheric Response to Realistic Reduced Summer Arctic Sea
Ice Anomalies

Uma S. Bhatt, Michael A. Alexander, Clara Deser, John E. Walsh,
Jack S. Miller, Michael S. Timlin, James Scott, and Robert A.
Tomas 91

Section III: Rapid Loss Versus Abrupt Transition

Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback and Nonlinear Arctic Climate
Change

Michael Winton 111

The Role of Natural Versus Forced Change in Future Rapid Summer
Arctic Ice Loss

Marika M. Holland, Cecilia M. Bitz, L.-Bruno Tremblay, and David
A. Bailey 133

Multiple Equilibria and Abrupt Transitions in Arctic Summer Sea
Ice Extent

William J. Merryfield, Marika M. Holland, and Adam H.
Monahan 151

What Is the Trajectory of Arctic Sea Ice?

Harry L. Stern, Ronald W. Lindsay, Cecilia M. Bitz, and Paul
Hezel 175

Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in a Coupled Model Control
Simulation

Richard I. Cullather and L.-Bruno Tremblay 187

Section IV: The Threat to Polar Bears From Sea Ice
Decline

A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st
Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears

Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas
213