Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles (eBook)

Editors: D. J. Balding, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK M. Bishop, UK HGMP Resource Centre, Cambridge, UK C. Cannings, University of Sheffield, UK

Preface.

1. Introduction.

1.1 Weight-of-evidence theory.

1.2 About the book.

1.3 DNA profiling technology.

1.4 What you need to know already.

1.5 Other resources.

2. Crime on an island.

2.1 Warm-up exercises.

2.2 Rare trait identification evidence.

2.3 Making the island problem more realistic.

2.4 Weight-of-evidence exercises.

3. Assessing evidence via likelihood ratios.

3.1 Likelihood ratios.

3.2 The weight-of-evidence formula.

3.3 General application of the formula.

3.4 Consequences for DNA evidence.

3.5 Some derivations.

3.6 Further weight-of-evidence exercises.

4. Typing technologies.

4.1 STR typing.

4.2 mtDNA typing.

4.3 Y-chromosome markers.

4.4 X-chromosome markers.

4.5 SNP profiles.

4.6 Fingerprints.

5. Some population genetics for DNA evidence.

5.1 A brief overview.

5.2 Ø, or FST.

5.3 A statistical model and sampling formula.

5.4 Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

5.5 Linkage equilibrium.

5.6 Coancestry.

5.7 Likelihood-based estimation of Ø.

5.8 Population genetics exercises.

6. Identification.

6.1 Choosing the hypotheses.

6.2 Calculating the likelihood ratios.

6.3 Application to STR profiles.

6.4 Application to haploid profiles.

6.5 Mixtures.

6.6 Identification exercises.

7. Relatedness.

7.1 Paternity.

7.2 Other relatedness between two individuals.

7.3 Software for relatedness analysis.

7.4 Inference of ethnicity or phenotype.

7.5 Relatedness exercises.

8. Other approaches to weight of evidence.

8.1 Uniqueness.

8.2 Inclusion/Exclusion probabilities.

8.3 Hypothesis testing.

8.4 Other exercises.

9. Issues for the courtroom.

9.1 Bayesian reasoning in court.

9.2 Some fallacies.

9.3 Some UK appeal cases.

9.4 US National Research Council reports.

9.5 Prosecutor's fallacy exercises.

10. Solutions to exercises.

Bibliography.

Index.

"This book is a good example of how statistics can be explained in
plain English to a nontechnical audience, a skill that every
statistician needs to master for improved communication."
(Technometrics, August 2008)

"...this book should provide a good starting point for any
reader..." (International Statistical Institute, January
2006)

" ... one of the most gifted writers in forensic
interpretation...an excellent contribution to our field."
(Science & Justice Volume 45 no. 3)