Forecasting Product Liability Claims

  Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D. is Research Professor, Research Director, and Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University, and Medical Research Professor at Duke University Medical Center’s Department of Community and Family Medicine. Dr. Manton is also a Senior Fellow of the Duke University Medical Center’s Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development. His research interests include mathematical models of human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He was the 1990 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1991 he received the Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administered by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging. Joel E. Cohen, Ph.D., Dr. P.H., is Professor of Population, and Head of the Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University. He also is Professor of Populations at Columbia University. His research interests include the demography, ecology, epidemiology, and social organization of human and non-human populations, and related mathematical concepts. In 1981, he was elected Fellow of the MacArthur and Guggeneheim Foundations. He was the 1992 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1994, he received the Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award at the Sixth International Congress of Ecology.  

1 Overview.- 2 Epidemiology of Asbestos-Related Diseases.- 3 Forecasts Based on Direct Estimates of Exposure.- 4 Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 5 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates.- 6 Updated Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 7 Uncertainty in Updated Forecasts.- 8 Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 9 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 10 Conclusions and Implications.- References.