Expert Political Judgment
Princeton University Press (Verlag)
978-0-691-12302-8 (ISBN)
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Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox - the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events - is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics" (Princeton).
Acknowledgments ix Preface xi Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1 Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25 Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67 Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121 Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144 Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164 Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189 Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216 Methodological Appendix 239 Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273 Index 313
Erscheint lt. Verlag | 25.7.2005 |
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Zusatzinfo | 39 line illus. 7 tables. |
Verlagsort | New Jersey |
Sprache | englisch |
Maße | 152 x 235 mm |
Gewicht | 624 g |
Themenwelt | Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Politische Theorie |
ISBN-10 | 0-691-12302-0 / 0691123020 |
ISBN-13 | 978-0-691-12302-8 / 9780691123028 |
Zustand | Neuware |
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